三峡二期工程与湖北的机遇和挑战

１９９７年１１月１８日,三峡工程大江截流成功,标志着第一期工程结束、进入第二期工程实施阶段。长江三峡水利枢纽具有防洪、发电、航运和供水等巨大综合效益,是跨世纪特大型水利工程。它的建设,不仅对我国能源秘至整个经济布局产生极大的影响,而且对湖北长江经济带的形成与发展具有决定性的意义。     

南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游工业发展的影响

南水北调中线工程计划从丹江口水库向我国北方每年调水１４５亿ｍ＾３,汉江丹江口以下地区的水资源量将随之相应减少。汉江中下游地区是湖北省盐化工、机械、石油、食品、化肥、电力的重要生产地区,是湖北省的汽车工业走廊,其经济在湖北省占有举足轻重的地位。由于经济的迅速发展,下世纪工农业生产和人民生活对水资源的需求将从现在的１４０亿ｍ＾３增加到２５０亿ｍ＾３以上,需水量将达到水资源量的５８％,潜伏着严重的水资源     

对中国防灾减灾立法体系的探讨

中国是自然灾害和经济、社会发展中人为突发事件灾害普遍、灾情严重的国家。灾害已直接影响和制约着国家的经济建设、社会发展和公众的安全。要把防灾减灾作为中国的基本国策。为此,必须长远规划和全面制定中国的防灾减灾立法体系,以适应２１世纪中国减灾安全与可持续发展的战略任务。本文就编制中国防灾减灾立法体系应遵循的指导方针、基本原则及方案的框架设想全面提出研讨建议。     

Cracking the Achilles’ heel of energy performance contracting projects: the credit risk identification method for clients

ABSTRACT

A credit risk identification model is established to examine the credit status of Energy performance contracting (EPC) project clients (i.e., energy-using companies) in China based on rough set theory. The model is verified with data from 120 listed companies at different times. Study shows that lack of credit is one of the main obstacles to the implementation of EPC projects, and information asymmetry is the main reason for this lack of credit among potential clients in China. The credit risk identification method based on rough set theory can make up for the shortcomings of existing EPC projects in terms of credit risk identification, including redundant information and indicators, and unclear decision rules. Credit risk identification indicators of clients are dynamic. The research results can help energy service companies (ESCOs) determine the credit status of clients, facilitate cooperation between ESCOs and clients, and help explain the various dynamics of clients’ credit risk identification indicators over time.     

论工业企业生态规划与区域可持续发展

早在19世纪，生态学家就提出了生态规划的思想，20世纪60年代以后，随着环境问题的加剧和环境运动的发展，生态规划受到发达国家的高度重视。利用生态规划的理论对工业企业进行科学的规划不仅是环境保护的客观要求，也是企业自身生存发展的现实需要。要促进工业企业与所在区域环境的和谐、持续与发展，需要树立现代生态观念，综合考虑人与自然的关系，制定并实施生态规划。     

胡杨内源保护酶系可以指征宏观生态行为效果吗--塔里木河下游生态输水效应案例研究

在宏观生态系统的恢复中,通常关注的层面至多达到个体水平,即只计测个体的存在和测定所关注的可视特征,而忽略了个体的生理反应,特别是在实施恢复生态工程时,大规模地重新构造生物生活资源结构,常常难以估测这种变化对生物的有效性,加之可视生态效果表达的滞后性和可测试的复杂性,常常造成效果遗漏.因此,增加微观(细胞)层面的反应指示指标,可捕捉细微的个体反应,更准确的指征生态效果在个体上实现反应的可能性,这对于丰富恢复生态学理论是具有重大意义的.本文以塔里木河下游生态恢复工程为载体,探索了以内源保护酶系活力变化为指征的个体对生态输水的响应,结果表明超氧歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化物酶(POD)和膜脂过氧化产物丙二醛(MDA)不仅对累积输水效果具有指示性,而且对短期水干扰具有敏感的指示性,相关关系也因受水而强化.     

黄河拉西瓦水电站建设对区域景观格局的影响

本根据水利水电工程对景观格局的影响特征,从拼块类型尺度和景观尺度选出优势度、多样性、均匀度、分离度等8个能全面反映景观格局变化的数量化指数,完善了水利水电工程环境影响评价内容。以黄河拉西瓦水电站为例,对该区域LandsatTM7图像解译和GIS处理,结合工程设计规划,绘制建设前后区域景观格局图,建立空间信息数据库,计算各景观指数,分析其变化趋势。结果表明,黄河拉西瓦水电站区域有16种景观类型,分别属于6种生态系统,拼块类型多样,景观格局复杂,其中草地景观优势度最高,接近80％;建成后拼块类型的景观比例、密度、优势度、分离度等都有一定变化;景观均匀度、多样性指数和人为干扰强度都相应增加。总体上,景观格局没有发生大的变化,区域生态系统的功能和性质也不会改变。     

River systems as providers of goods and services: a basis for comparing desired and undesired effects of large dam projects

In developing countries, large dam projects continue to be launched, primarily to secure a time-stable freshwater supply and to generate hydropower. Meanwhile, calls for environmentally sustainable development put pressure on the dam-building industry to integrate ecological concerns in project planning and decision-making. Such integration requires environmental impact statements (EISs) that can communicate the societal implications of the ecological effects in terms that are understandable and useful to planners and decision-makers. The purpose of this study is to develop a basic framework for assessing the societal implications of the river ecological effects expected of a proposed large dam project. The aim is to facilitate a comparison of desired and potential undesired effects on-site and downstream. The study involves two main tasks: to identify key river goods and services that a river system may provide, and to analyze how the implementation of a large dam project may alter the on-site capacity and downstream potentials to derive river goods and services from the river system. Three river goods and six river services are identified. River goods are defined as extractable partly man-made products and river services as naturally sustained processes. By four main types of flow manipulations, a large dam project improves the on-site capacity to derive desired river goods, but simultaneously threatens the provision of desirable river goods and services downstream. However, by adjusting the site, design, and operational schedule of the proposed dam project, undesirable effects on river goods and services can be minimized.     

Mineralogical compositions of aquifer matrix as necessary initial conditions in reactive contaminant transport models

Mineralogical compositions and their spatial distributions are important initial conditions for reactive transport modeling. However, popular Kd-based "reactive" transport models only require contaminant concentrations in the pore fluids as initial conditions, and minerals implicitly represent infinite sources and sinks in these models. That situation results in a general neglect of mineralogical characterization in site investigations. This study uses a coupled multi-component reactive mass transport model to predict the natural attenuation of a ground water plume at a uranium mill tailings site in western USA. Numerous ground water geochemistry data are available at this site, but mineralogical data are sketchy. Even given the well-defined pore fluid chemistry, variations of secondary mineral species and mineral abundances in the aquifer resulted in significantly different modeling outcomes. Results show that the amount of calcite in the aquifer determines the distances of plume migration. The possible presence of jurbanite, an aluminum sulfate phase, can store acidity temporarily but cause more severe contamination on a later date. The surfaces of iron oxyhydroxides can store significant amounts of sulfate and protons and serve as a second source for prolonged contamination. These simulations under field conditions illustrate that mineralogical compositions are an essential requirement for accurate prediction of contaminant fate and transport.     

黄河口治理与“三约束”理论

黄河口治理是黄河治理的重要问题之一,黄河口治理观点有河口提动论、河口相对稳定论、固住河口论。本文分析了固住河口的必要性和可行性,提出了“三约束”理论,认为黄河口治理关键是固住河口。