自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.     

信息不对称下的金融风险机理研究

利用信息不对称理论对市场交易中的道德风险和逆向选择进行了解释。对国家同商业银行及中介机构的信息不对称,商业银行同工商企业的信息不对称,国家金融机构信息获取方面存在的困难的原因进行了分析。研究了由于信息不对称利率、汇率、管理及决策在金融行业的风险,以及操作过程中,贷款对象选择,对中小企业贷款的风险。只要充分重视金融风险,采取得当的防范对策,风险是可以防范的。     

数字消防--消防信息化的开放模式

针对当前消防信息化建设中存在的开放性不足的问题,提出了一种开放的建设模式--数字消防.在探讨数字消防的性质和特点的基础上,对我国数字消防的功能需求进行了系统分析,并对实践中出现的"由总队主导的数字消防模式"和"由民防主导的数字消防模式"进行了探讨分析.最后,针对需要进一步解决的问题提出了相应的建议.     

基于信息熵理论的泥石流沟谷危险度评价

泥石流沟谷是一个复杂的地貌系统,有其发生、发展和衰退的过程.文章从系统科学和地貌学的角度出发,运用了能综合表述地貌演化特征的因子-地貌系统信息熵对泥石流沟谷进行危险度评价,研究以昆明市东川城区后山深沟、石羊沟和尼姑拉沟为试点,对各泥石流沟的信息熵进行了计算.结果表明,深沟和石羊沟的地貌信息熵值分别为0.124和0.174,泥石流沟谷正由发育的中年末期向老年期演化;尼古拉沟的信息熵值为0.246,正处于沟谷发育的旺盛时期,计算结果与当地实际情况有较好的一致性.     

基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统

海塘工程的规划、设计、建设、维护和管理,对沿海省份经济发展和人民生命财产的安全十分重要,历来受到政府和沿海居民的高度重视.介绍了基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统的主要功能及逻辑结构,分析了海塘数据库的特点,详细讨论了海塘属性和空间数据库的建库内容及方法.最后通过应用实例,验证了系统技术路线的合理性、正确性和实用性.     

Using consequence analysis on some chlorine operation hazards and their possible effects on neighborhoods in central Taiwan

The applications of chlorine have been broadly used in many industrial products, such as bleaching agents, synthetic rubbers, plastics, disinfectants, iron chlorides, fire refractory materials, insecticides, and anti-freezers, etc. According to the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA), more than 30 thousand tons were used in the year 2000. In addition, there were more than 12 reported incidents from 2000 to 2003—mostly on using chlorine as disinfectants (five) and as process agents (four).

This study investigated 15 chlorine operation plants in central Taiwan. These chlorine usages included bleaching agents, disinfectants, iron chloride, synthesizing rubber plastics, and others. Thirteen plants were located in the industrial parks and two were in or near residential zones. The consequence analysis were used three different methods to analyze the worst-case scenarios (WCSs) and alternative release case scenarios (ACSs) in order to compare impact zones for applying various active and passive mitigation systems, such as confined space, scrubber, water-spray, and so no. For two plants in or near residential zones, multi-layers mitigation systems and operation limits should be implemented in order to enforce more stringent protection measures. However, there was no specific regulation for chlorine plants operated at different locations, such as industrial parks or residential zones. In order to reduce chemical accidents and their impacts on public safety, our results suggest that source mitigation/management and warning systems should be adopted simultaneously.     

我国油气企业环境会计核算及信息披露的探讨

在国民经济中占有主导地位的油气企业同时也是造成环境污染的主体之一。因此,建立油气企业环境会计制度有极其重要的现实意义。文章针对我国油气企业环境会计制度应用现状,运用环境会计基本理论,对企业环境会计核算方法及信息传播模式进行了探讨,以期为油气企业环境会计制度的实施提供一些理论依据和具体方法,推动油气企业环境会计制度的发展。     

地理信息系统技术在环境中的应用

地理信息系统(GIS)技术现已广泛应用于环境领域。简要介绍了该技术的功能特点,并从大气、水、土壤、噪声四个方面探讨了GIS在环境保护中的应用。研究结果表明,GIS是研究环境子系统协同效应的实用技术。     

Socio-economic Comparison Between Traditional and Improved Cultivation Methods in Agroforestry Systems, East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania

The East Usambara Mountains, recognized as one of the 25 most important biodiversity hot spots in the world, have a high degree of species diversity and endemism that is threatened by increasing human pressure on resources. Traditional slash and burn cultivation in the area is no longer sustainable. However, it is possible to maintain land productivity, decrease land degradation, and improve rural people’s livelihood by ameliorating cultivation methods. Improved agroforestry seems to be a very convincing and suitable method for buffer zones of conservation areas. Farmers could receive a reasonable net income from their farm with little investment in terms of time, capital, and labor. By increasing the diversity and production of already existing cultivations, the pressure on natural forests can be diminished. The present study shows a significant gap between traditional cultivation methods and improved agroforestry systems in socio-economic terms. Improved agroforestry systems provide approximately double income per capita in comparison to traditional methods. More intensified cash crop cultivation in the highlands of the East Usambara also results in double income compared to that in the lowlands. However, people are sensitive to risks of changing farming practices. Encouraging farmers to apply better land management and practice sustainable cultivation of cash crops in combination with multipurpose trees would be relevant in improving their economic situation in the relatively short term. The markets of most cash crops are already available. Improved agroforestry methods could ameliorate the living conditions of the local population and protect the natural reserves from human disturbance.     

MODELING THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFUSE NITROGEN SOURCES AND SINKS IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN OF NORTH CAROLINA,USA1

This study quantified nonpoint source nitrogen (NPS‐N) sources and sinks across the 14,582 km² Neuse River Basin (NRB) located in North Carolina, to provide tabular data summaries and graphic overlay products to support the development of management approaches to best achieve established N reduction goals. First, a remote sensor derived, land cover classification was performed to support modeling needs. Modeling efforts included the development of a mass balance model to quantify potential N sources and sinks, followed by a precipitation event driven hydrologic model to effectively transport excess N across the landscape to individual stream reaches to support subsequent labeling of transported N values corresponding to source origin. Results indicated that agricultural land contributed 55 percent of the total annual NPS‐N loadings, followed by forested land at 23 percent (background), and urban areas at 21 percent. Average annual N source contributions were quantified for agricultural (1.4 kg/ha), urban (1.2 kg/ha), and forested cover types (0.5 kg/ha). Nonpoint source‐N contributions were greatest during the winter (40 percent), followed by spring (32 percent), summer (28 percent), and fall (0.3 percent). Seasonal total N loadings shifted from urban dominated and forest dominated sources during the winter, to agricultural sources in the spring and summer. A quantitative assessment of the significant NRB land use activities indicated that high (greater than 70 percent impervious) and medium (greater than 35 percent impervious) density urban development were the greatest contributors of NPS‐N on a unit area basis (1.9 and 1.6 kg/ha/yr, respectively), followed by row crops and pasture/hay cover types (1.4 kg/ha/yr).