鱼吸收富集LAS的分析研究进展

LAS对鱼等水生生物均产生有害影响,会破坏鱼鳃上皮组织、影响其相关功能(如通透性等)。LAS经由鱼鳃吸收、并通过血液输送到鱼体中各组织。LAS疏水性越大,其在鱼体中生物富集系数越大。水硬度等影响鱼吸收、富集LAS。鱼体中LAS生物转化过程减小了LAS生物富集。鱼体中LAS及其生物转化产物大多是经过固相萃取或基质固相分散萃取后,采用HPLC或HPLC/MS等方法进行分析。     

运用QSPR预测有机磷农药的色谱保留值

通过计算43种有机磷农药的各种结构参数,运用多元线性回归分析方法比较了适用于有机磷农药色谱保留值的定量关系表达式,建立了有机磷农药结构参数对色谱保留值的QSPR模型.模型分析表明:磷酸酯与硫逐磷酸酯两类有机磷农药的模型非交叉验证相关系数R2分别为0.991和0.998,标准误差SE分别为0.0539和0.2874,交叉验证相关系数Q2分别为0.976和0.990,标准偏差Scv分别为0.086和0.610.在已知磷酸酯与硫逐磷酸酯两类有机磷农药结构参数的情况下,此模型可有助于有机磷农药的色谱分析.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

溧阳台体应变异常与地震的对应关系研究

地震预报的基础是要有连续可靠的高质量的观测资料。地震台站一线的工作人员对本台产出的观测资料的可靠性最有发言权,溧阳地震台的体应变观测资料在历年的全国资料质量评比中连续6年获得前三名。本文通过对江苏溧阳地震台体应变观测资料的分析研究,发现1996年11月09日在南黄海6.1级地震和1997年07月28日在南黄海5.1级地震,台湾1999年09月21日7.6级地震和2002年03月31日7.5级地震以及2001年11月14日青海8.1级地震前后,该台体应变资料有较明显的前兆异常反应,并且有一定的变化规律和异常特征,通过对这种规律的总结对地震预报有一定的参考价值,为此,我们对这种规律认真的分析总结,以提供给大家参考。     

Time series analysis of elemental and isotopic data from biomineralized whale tissue

A temporal record of environmental conditions is often contained within accretionary biological tissue. These records can provide knowledge of the environmental conditions that existed at the time the tissue was formed. In this study, we look at trace element concentrations and isotopic ratios of carbon and nitrogen as contained in baleen from bowhead whales in the eastern and western Arctic Ocean. Time series techniques, including maximum likelihood method and likelihood ratio tests, are applied to analysis of data and inference about their mean structures.     

Influencing factors and prediction of ambient Peroxyacetyl nitrate concentration in Beijing, China

Peroxyacyl nitrates (PANs) are important secondary pollutants in ground-level atmosphere. Accurate prediction of atmospheric pollutant concentrations is crucial to guide effective precautions for before and during specific pollution events. In this study, four models based on the back-propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods were used to predict the hourly average PAN concentrations at Peking University, Beijing, in 2014. The model inputs were atmospheric pollutant data and meteorological parameters. Model 3 using a BP-ANN based on the original variables achieved the best prediction results among the four models, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.7089, mean bias error of ? 0.0043 ppb, mean absolute error of 0.4836?ppb, root mean squared error of 0.5320?ppb, and Willmott's index of agreement of 0.8214. Based on a comparison of the performance indices of the MLR and BP-ANN models, we concluded that the BP-ANN model was able to capture the highly non-linear relationships between PAN concentration and the conventional atmospheric pollutant and meteorological parameters, providing more accurate results than the traditional MLR models did, with a markedly higher goodness of R. The selected meteorological and atmospheric pollutant parameters described a sufficient amount of PAN variation, and thus provided satisfactory prediction results. More specifically, the BP-ANN model performed very well for capturing the variation pattern when PAN concentrations were low. The findings of this study address some of the existing knowledge gaps in this research field and provide a theoretical basis for future regional air pollution control.     

工业企业厂界噪声测量中的背景值修正问题

在工业企业厂界噪声实际监测中,对于差值小于3和不为整数时按照GB/T12349-90<工业企业厂界噪声测量方法>进行噪声背景值修正,常会与实际值产生较大误差.通过对三种修正值取值方法进行误差分析,在遵循GB/T12349-90<工业企业厂界噪声测量方法>的情况下,对噪声背景值的修正进行补充细化.     

中国出口家电反向物流网络及其优化研究

文章分析了反向物流网络的特征、分类以及影响废旧家电回收反向物流构建的因素及构建原则;运用博弈论知识论证了进行废旧家电反向物流的必然性,在此基础上构建了废旧家电反向物流网络,运用混合整数线性规划模型对其进行优化.最后,本文运用例子证明了混合整数线性规划及其算法-分枝定界法的实用性和有效性.     

Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

北京城近郊区园林绿地多目标规划

北京市城近郊区人口密集,经济活动频繁,作为改善城市空气质量的重要环境资源之一,园林绿地提供了不可或缺的生态服务功能。针对研究区降尘大、SO_2浓度高以及生产生活耗氧量大等主要环境问题,以满足城市居民环境质量基本要求为目标,通过一系列决策变量与约束条件的设定,建立起北京城近郊区园林绿地多目标线性规划模型。应用Lingo 8．0软件对规划模型求解,结果表明,规划期(2020年)不同种类园林绿地面积分配较基期(2000年)更为合理,强调通过乔灌草相结合提高园林绿地整体生态服务功能,为北京建设生态城市提供了规划依据。