利用小样本数据预处理技术提高效能指标精度

提出了运用熵值判别法和线性均方估计法来处理小样本数据的方法.熵值判别法是根据熵的上界对应最大的不确定度,利用所得数据的熵信息量判别数据是否含有粗大误差;线性均方估计消除粗大误差是一种采用软化的方法处理粗大误差.经过多次试验,结果表明这两种方法在处理小样本采样数据时能够有效地提高数据精度.     

滇池污染状况及对策建议

滇池是中国水体富营养化程度最为严重的湖泊之一,不仅制约了昆明市乃至整个云南省社会经济的可持续发展,而且严重影响了其流域数百万人民的生活质量,受到国家和云南省政府的高度重视．通过对滇池现在的数据进行多元回归分析,建立回归模型。对过去的数据同现在数据进行比较,分析出滇池污染物的现状及趋势,以及控制水体富营养化的建议。     

Microenvironmental time-activity patterns in Chongqing, China

An investigation using recall questionnaires was conducted in winter and autumn 2006 to evaluate the time-activity patterns in Chongqing, China. The average time spent in seven microenvironments (MEs) including outdoors, transit, living room, bedroom, kitchen, classroom/office, and other indoors were found to be about 3.5, 1.1, 2.5, 9.7, 1.4, 4.2, and 1.7 h per day, respectively. According to the results of a nonparametric test, the sampling period and day of week were significant for the variation of the time spent in all MEs except for transit and outdoors. The time budget was analyzed using a general linear model (GLM), which exhibited significant variability by demographic factors such as gender, age, residence, education, and household income.     

神经网络模型在O_3浓度预测中的应用

O3是近地面大气中一种重要的二次污染物.本研究采用神经网络多层感知器（Multi-Layer Perceptron）和多元线性回归2种模型,以广州万顷沙站2006年的气象观测数据为输入,对该站O3的1 h平均峰值浓度进行提前1 d的预测,并比较了2种模型的预测效果.模型的输入参数为前1d O3的最高1h平均浓度和第二天...     

Emergy-based fuzzy optimization approach for water reuse in an eco-industrial park

The establishment of an eco-industrial park (EIP) provides opportunity for individual plants to cooperate with each other in order to utilize resources efficiently and thus reduce waste. The goal of an EIP is to “close the loop” through recycling and reuse of material and energy streams. Studies show with current freshwater consumption trends there would be water stress aggravated by global warming in the near future. This paper presents a model to design an EIP water reuse network that considers overall system sustainability as measured with emergy, as well as cost saving desired by individual plants. Case studies from literature are then solved to illustrate the advantage of this method in decision making. The illustrative examples show how the model achieves a compromise among the potentially conflicting fuzzy goals of the various EIP stakeholders.     

珠江三角洲光化学活跃期甲醛及其前体物的源解析研究

选取珠江三角洲大气超级站的三个代表性超级站点（东莞东城城市超级站、深圳莲花山城市超级站和鹤山花果山区域超级站）,同步在线监测和分析了2021年5~10月大气光化学活跃期甲醛（HCHO）及其前体物挥发性有机物（VOCs）组分的时空变化特征,利用多元线性回归法对HCHO来源进行解析,识别出了关键VOCs前体物及其贡献,并对比了三个点位来源及前体物的差异.结果表明：三个站点的HCHO体积浓度存在明显差异,鹤山区域站浓度最高达5.82×10^-9,与历史研究数据相比浓度升高,而城市超级站东城与莲花山浓度水平降低.臭氧浓度与甲醛浓度存在一定相关性,各站点臭氧浓度最高的9月,HCHO的平均浓度水平也高;臭氧超标日的HCHO浓度显著高于臭氧非超标日.利用多元线性回归法,选择甲苯、异戊二烯和O₃作为源示踪剂,结果表明二次源对HCHO来源贡献占比最多,范围为43.5%~54.9%,其中区域站点二次源占比高于其它两个城市站点.基于生成产率法得到各站点二次转化生成HCHO的前体物主要为烯烃,其中贡献最大的是异戊二烯,其次为乙烯和丙烯.综合对比,HCHO的一次人为源的下降导致城市站点HCHO浓度降低,较高的二次转化导致了区域站点HCHO浓度升高,需重点关注甲醛的人为源直接排放和异戊二烯、苯乙烯、乙烯等前体物.     

Multilevel analysis of factors affecting participants’ land reconversion willingness after the Grain for Green Program

Understanding the postprogram land use plans of participants is necessary for the sustainability of the conservation achievements from payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs. Previous studies have analyzed many individual factors affecting participants’ reconversion plans after PES programs. However, whether the regional ecosystem services changes caused by PES programs affect reconversion willingness remains elusive. Here, we used the multilevel linear model to determine the effects of regional ecosystem services changes and individual characteristics on participants’ land reconversion willingness after the Grain for Green Program (GFGP) in the Yanhe watershed of the Loess Plateau. We found that household income, ecological awareness, and employment changes negatively affected reconversion willingness, while nonfarm employment positively affected it at the individual level. At the regional level, the grain production and water yield changes could influence the reconversion willingness of respondents with different individual characteristics. With improved understanding of the factors affecting reconversion willingness, several suggestions to improve the sustainability of the GFGP were proposed. Our study provides a template for analyzing the multilevel factors that affect the sustainability of other PES programs.     

地铁深基坑变形规律参数化方法探讨

在对基坑隆起、基坑围护桩体水平变形以及基坑周边地表沉降产生机理、变形规律和影响因素分析的基础上,提出各测项的变形模式：基坑隆起为抛物线模式,围护桩体水平变形和基坑周边地表沉降为双直线模式.变形模式中的参数取值与基坑条件（包括工程、水文地质条件、岩土体物理力学性质、支护结构形式等）存在对应关系.给出了以监测数据为基础的各变形模式参数的线性回归方法,为建立以回归参数控制的预测分析库奠定基础.     

基于乡镇尺度的地质高背景区耕地土壤重金属来源分析与风险评价

西南地区由于广泛发育碳酸盐岩导致土壤重金属具有天然的高背景属性,在重金属地质高背景区开展生态风险评价和识别重金属潜在来源对土壤污染防治、农产品安全保障具有重要意义.基于乡镇尺度,在重庆市奉节县青龙镇采集耕地表层土壤样品307件,分析了土壤As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn重金属含量及pH,采用地统计学,绝对因子分析-多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)受体模型探讨研究区域内8种重金属污染空间分布特征及来源,利用内梅罗指数(P_综)和潜在生态风险指数(RI)开展土壤风险评价.结果表明,耕地土壤中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni和Zn的平均值和中位数超过重庆市土壤背景值,其中Cd、As累积效应较为明显.与农用地土壤筛选值相比,Cd超标率最高,达52.12%.土壤中重金属含量空间分布格局呈现出南部整体高,高值区呈条带状分布;北部整体低,高值区呈点状分布.APCS-MLR模型表明研究区耕地土壤重金属Cr、Zn、Ni和Cu以自然来源为主,主要受地质背景控制,贡献率分别为86.62%、85.46%、76.44%和64.34%;As、Pb和Hg的来源以工业源为主,受煤矿...     

石河子-昌吉地区地下水水质时空变化及污染源解析

为了探明新疆石河子-昌吉地区地下水水质时空变化并解析污染源,综合运用基于香农熵的贝叶斯水质评价模型、 Spearman秩相关系数、主成分分析和绝对主成分得分-多元线性回归受体模型(APCS-MLR)等方法,对23眼原位井2016～2021年逐年地下水水质数据进行分析.结果表明：(1)研究区多年地下水水质状况总体较好,潜水水质类别以Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类为主,承压水主要为Ⅰ类.(2)从时间看,2016年和2017年分别为潜水和承压水水质变化的关键时间节点,Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类水仅出现在节点之前,之后在Ⅰ～Ⅲ类水范围内波动.(3)从空间看,潜水水质优劣排序为：石河子市≈呼图壁县>玛纳斯县>昌吉市;承压水为：石河子市≈昌吉市>呼图壁县>玛纳斯县.(4)研究区多年地下水水质类别和主要水质指标在时空变化上基本对应,且异质性较强.(5)潜水水质主要受到溶滤作用(67.30%)、溶滤-迁移作用(10.89%)和农业-生活污染(9.44%)的影响,溶滤-富集作用(52.08%)、农业-生活污染(16.06%)和碱性环境的离子交换作用(12.64%)对承压水水质影响较大.尽管研究区多年水质状况整体呈改...