ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA'S WATER RESOURCE PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Water resource and water quality management planning depend, to a large degree, on forecasts of industrial activity and population projections. A flexible economic data base is especially important where planning follows varying formats of geographical and industrial detail. Records of employment and payroll are collected in the administration of Unemployment Insurance (U.I.) programs and are available from State Employment Agencies. These statistics have been collected over a long period of record (thirty-five years). Many years of record are available on punched-cards or magnetic tape and may be arrayed and manipulated by computer. This basic approach has been followed in Virginia. Historical U.I. payroll and employment records for the period 1956 through 1970 were procured on magnetic tape. This data was arrayed by major hydrologic area and by regional planning district. Projections of manufacturing activity were then generated by fitting several exponential equations to annual payroll data in two-digit Standard Industrial Classifications. These exponentials were then extrapolated to provide a range of industrial projections. Other parameters of manufacturing activity were then correlated to the payroll data to generate projections of indexes such as employment, value-added, and gross manufacturing output. U.I. payroll data is now being correlated to parameters in non-manufacturing categories. Projections for industries such as trade and services will link extrapolated payroll data with benchmark correlations of payroll and sales receipts.     

优化大气监测布点方法的探讨

选择有代表性的监测点,是决定监测数据能否对该区域的状况进行描述的前提。炼厂排放源为不规则的无组织排放的面源,数据在该区域具有代表性的点上测出。将整个被测区域按不同的功能特点和生产工艺,划分成若干个小的功能区,在每个功能区中布有限个点,并同时在一个功能区的有限个点采样分析,运用数理统计的手段,探讨某一局部小区域中最优监测点的选择方法。该方法简单、实用,并在实际监测工作中得到应用。     

APPLICABILITY OF THE t-TEST FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: A major concern in managing water resources is whether or not water quality variables have changed over time or space. The two-sample Student's t-test is probably the most commonly used statistical test for this purpose. Given that the underlying assumptions of the test may often be violated by water quality variables, a major concern regarding applicability of the test arises. This paper reviews and synthesizes available information in order to examine the effects of non-normality, unequal variances, serial dependence, and seasonality on the performance of the two-sample t-test. The results suggest the t-test is robust for non-normal distributions if the distributions have the same shape (either symmetric or skewed) and sample sizes are equal. The t-test is also robust for unequal variances if the sample sizes are equal. The t-test appears not to be robust when: 1) samples come from two distributions of different shape, 2) samples have unequal variances and unequal sample sizes, 3) serial dependence in observations is present, or 4) seasonal changes, in concentration are present and not removed.     

NATIONAL WATER ASSESSMENT: NEEDED OR NOT?1

ABSTRACT A conceptual framework and the systematic collection of reliable information for application within the framework are the cornerstones of effective water planning. The ideal of strengthening these cornerstones was a driving force behind formation of the Water Resources Council and Council efforts, during its life, to develop the Principles and Standards and to complete two National Water Assessments. The Assessments contained voluminous data but never really became an integral component of the national water planning process. Before being disbanded in 1982, the Council solicited several appraisals of its assessment process. This paper reports one made by the university community in which experiences and opinions were obtained from 108 water research administrators and water policy experts.     

数理统计在环境放射性数据处理中的运用

环境中的放射性数据处理是一项重要的基础工作,在辐射环境常规监测中放射性数据运用科学的方法进行处理,避免数据处理工作中的主观性、随意性。本文例举说明如何运用数理统计的方法进行放射性数据的分析评判。     

FORECASTING QUARTER-MONTHLY RIVERFLOW1

Recent developments with respect to transfer function-noise models are reviewed and used to model and forecast quarter-monthly (i.e., near-weekly) natural inflows to the Lac St-Jean reservoir in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The covariate series are rainfall and snowmelt, the latter being a novel derivation from daily rainfall, snowfall and temperature series. It is clearly demonstrated using the residual variance and the Akaike information criterion that modeling is improved as one starts with a deseasonalized ARMA model of the inflow series and successively adds transfer functions for the rainfall and snowmelt series. It is further demonstrated that the transfer function-noise model is better than a periodic autoregressive model of the inflow series. A split-sample experiment is used to compare one-step-ahead forecasts from this transfer function-noise model with forecasts from other stochastic models as well as with forecasts from a so-called conceptual hydrological model (i.e., a model which attempts to mathematically simulate the physical processes involved in the hydrological cycle). It is concluded that the transfer function-noise model is the preferred model for forecasting the quarter-monthly Lac St-Jean inflow series.     

高质量绿色发展形势下环境统计的问题与建议

环境统计是环境保护的一项重要基础性工作。推动我国经济实现高质量绿色发展,更需要调整和建立新的环境统计指标体系,科学衡量中国经济增长的质量,评判中国经济增长的短板。本文在回顾国内外环境统计发展历程的基础上,针对当前高质量绿色发展形势,分析了环境统计工作中存在的统筹制度缺乏、统计指标不完善、统计数据质量不高、统计体系法律法规不健全等问题。最后从完善环境统计方法体系、建立监测统计数据收集和审核机制、建立和完善环境投资统计体系三方面提出有针对性的对策与建议。本文可为完善我国环境统计制度和政策、提高环境统计科学准确性提供决策支持,为推动我国经济向高质量绿色化发展奠定坚实基础。     

2005年9-10月国内环境事件数据

简要统计了2005年9-10月国内发生的各种环境事件73起,包括沙尘天气1起,污染事件28起,地震8起,虫害2起,山体滑坡和泥石流15起,以及其他自然灾害19起.最后对统计结果进行了讨论.     

危险化学品公路运输事故新特点及对策研究

统计分析了2008年1月～2010年5月我国发生的485起危险化学品公路运输事故。从事故发生的原因、事故涉及的化学品、事故造成的危害、事故发生的月份分布及年份变化等几个方面,分析了近年来危险化学品公路运输事故的新特点及变化规律。经统计分析,道路交通事故是引发危险化学品运输事故的主要原因之一;侧翻是危险化学品车辆最容易发生的道路交通事故;而随着我国高速公路的迅猛发展,追尾造成的危险化学品运输事故数量呈上升趋势;危险化学品公路运输过程中易燃液体事故起数最多,爆炸品和毒性物质事故造成的人员伤亡最严重;春节前后取代夏季,成为近两年危险化学品运输事故高发期。针对这些特点,对我国危险化学品公路运输安全管理与监控提出了建议。     

2003年9-12月国内环境事件数据

简要统计了2003年9-12月国内发生的各种环境事件91件,包括沙尘天气(3件)、污染事件(29件)、山体滑坡和泥石流(17件)、地震(14件)、虫害(7件)以及其他自然灾害(22件).最后对自然灾害进行了讨论.