GENERALIZED SKEW COEFFICIENTS FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: In order to promote a uniform and consistent approach for floodflow frequency studies, the U.S. Water Resources Council has recommended the use of the log-Pearson type III distribution with a generalized skew coefficient. This paper investigates various methods of determining generalized skew coefficients. A new method is introduced that determines generalized skew coefficients using a weighting procedure based upon the variance of regional (map) skew coefficients and the variance of sample skew coefficients. The variance of skew derived from sample data is determined using either of two non-parametric methods called the jackknife or bootstrap. Applications of the new weighting procedure are presented along with an experimental study to test various weighting procedures to derive generalized skew coefficients.     

DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO₂ perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.     

火灾损失统计计算方法的研究

实际工作有许多迫切需要解决的问题，如火灾危险性定量估计，火灾保险费率计算公式中各种参数的确定，等，本文力求依据数学理论明确地回答这些问题，主要内容有：１．火灾损失的估计；２．火保险费率的计算；３．防火器材的效益与费用分析。     

AN ILLUSTRATION OF MODEL STRUCTURE IDENTIFICATION1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this article is to discuss the importance of uncertainty analysis in water quality modeling, with an emphasis on the identification of the correct model specification. A wetland phosphorus retention model is used as an example to illustrate the procedure of using a filtering technique for model structure identification. Model structure identification is typically done through model parameter estimation. However, due to many sources of error in both model parameterization and observed variables and data, error-in-variable is often a problem. Therefore, it is not appropriate to use the least squares method for parameter estimation. Two alternative methods for parameter estimation are presented. The first method is the maximum likelihood estimator, which assumes independence of the observed response variable values. In anticipating the possible violation of the independence assumption, a second method, which coupled a maximum likelihood estimator and Kalman filter model, was presented. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is presented as a preliminary method for judging whether the model structure is appropriate or not.     

济南市大气颗粒物背景值确定方法

城市大气颗粒物背景值的确定能够为制订城市大气颗粒物污染防治目标提供重要基础支撑,探索大气颗粒物背景值确定方法对于大气污染防治具有重要意义.以济南市清洁对照点跑马岭监测数据为基础,直接采用概率密度法计算得到的ρ（PM₁₀）和ρ（PM_2.5）背景值范围分别是100~110和40~50 μg/m3.综合应用空气质量模型模拟法和概率密度法,提出基于数值模拟的城市大气颗粒物环境背景值确定方法,并在此基础上确定了济南市大气颗粒物背景值.结果表明:济南市ρ（PM₁₀）和ρ（PM_2.5）背景值范围分别是30~35和15~20 μg/m3,其中ρ（PM₁₀）环境背景值秋季（40~45 μg/m3）最高、夏季（25~30 μg/m3）最低;ρ（PM_2.5）环境背景值秋季（25~30 μg/m3）最高、冬季（10~15 μg/m3）最低.研究显示,基于数值模拟计算得到的颗粒物背景值明显低于直接采用概率密度法得到的结果,表明跑马岭受人为因素影响明显,监测结果已不能完全代表济南市大气颗粒物背景值水平;而数值模拟法可以完全剔除了人为源的贡献,计算得到较为准确的ρ（PM₁₀）和ρ（PM_2.5）背景值.      

中国PM2.5污染空间分布的社会经济影响因素分析

中国的细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染具有危害性强、覆盖范围大、空间分布不均匀的特点.本研究以2015年中国PM_(2.5)监测站点数据为基础,尝试结合空间分析的方法,对PM_(2.5)污染空间分布的社会经济影响因素进行分析.首先以省级行政区划为基本单元,选取Moran's I指数和局部自相关指数(LISA)分析PM_(2.5)在国家尺度上的分布特征.然后利用普通最小二乘回归模型(OLS)和地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析PM_(2.5)浓度的空间分布和各项社会经济指标的相关性.结果表明,GWR模型比OLS模型更好地揭示出PM_(2.5)浓度分布和各项因素之间的关系.PM_(2.5)浓度在空间分布上存在以京津冀为中心的高浓度聚集区向四周逐渐递减,在广西、四川等南部省份形成低浓度聚集区的空间分布结构.另外,森林覆盖率和人均电力消费量与PM_(2.5)浓度显著负相关,人均私家车保有量和PM_(2.5)浓度显著正相关,其中人均私家车保有量是对PM_(2.5)浓度影响最大的因素.     

WATERSHED IMPERVIOUSNESS IMPACTS ON STREAM CHANNEL CONDITION IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: Forty‐six independent stream reaches in southeastern Pennsylvania were surveyed to assess the relationships between geomorphic and habitat variables and watershed total impervious area (TIA) and to test the ability of the impervious cover model (ICM) to predict the impervious category based on stream reach variables. Ten variables were analyzed using simple and multivariate statistical techniques including scatter‐plots, Spearman's Rank correlations, principal components analysis (PCA), and discriminant analysis (DA). Graphical analysis suggested differences in the response to TIA between the stream reaches with less than 13 percent TIA and those with greater than 24 percent TIA. Spearman's Rank correlations showed significant relationships for large woody debris and sinuosity when analyzing the entire dataset and for depth diversity and the standard deviation of maximum pool depths when analyzing stream reaches with greater than 24 percent TIA. Classification into the ICM using DA was 49 percent accurate; however, the stream reaches did support the ICM in other ways. These results indicate that stream reach response to urbanization may not be consistent across geographical regions and that local conditions (specifically riparian buffer vegetation) may significantly affect channel response; and the ICM, used in the appropriate context, can aid in the management of stream reaches and watersheds.     

1990～2003年中国民航152起小于间隔飞行事件的分类统计研究

小于间隔飞行事件是双机空中相撞事故的潜在威胁 ,对此类事件进行人的因素的分类统计分析有助于寻找错误原因和规律。笔者以 15 2起小于间隔飞行事件为数据源 ,根据Reason模型和HFACS系统进行分类 ,统计了各个因素所占的百分比和部分因素的相关程度。结果表明 ,小于间隔事件与生物节律的关系并不明显而与交通流量密切相关 ;机组不安全行为与管制员未能有效实施监控职能密切相关 ;决策错误、操作错误和知觉错误的主要表现形式分别为 :混淆指令、调错高度窗、听错指令和记错 /忘记管制员指令以及未理解管制员指令 ;不良的机组资源管理是导致小于间隔最主要的机组因素 ,主要表现形式为机组成员之间的配合不好、未有效实施交互监视和交互检查 ;“高度指令”和“相对活动高度”提示的语序问题是一个值得进一步研究的课题。     

CORRELATION OF SELECTED WELL WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS WITH SOIL AND AQUIFER HYDROLOGIC PROPERTIES1

ABSTRACT: The geographical distribution of well water specific electrical conductivity and nitrate levels in a 932 km² ground water quality study area in the Fresno-Clovis, California, indicated that frequently areas of lower ground water salinity were also areas of relatively greater soil and aquifer permeability. From these observations and certain assumptions we hypothesized that the quality of the well water should be better in areas with permeable soils and geological formations. Correlation and multiple linear regression analysis supported this hypothesis for well water salinity. However, well water nitrate levels were significantly negatively correlated with only the estimated equivalent specific yield of the aquifer system. The multiple R² values of the most significant multiple linear regression models showed that only a fourth to a third of the variability in well water specific electric conductivity and nitrate levels could be ascribed to the effects of the hydrogeological parameters considered with more than 90 percent confidence. This indicates that three-fourths to two-thirds of the variability in ground water salinity and nitrate levels may be related to land use. Thus, there is considerable room for land use management techniques to improve ground water quality and reduce its variability.     

TRENDS IN LEAD CONCENTRATIONS IN MAJOR U.S. RIVERS AND THEIR RELATION TO HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GASOLINE-LEAD CONSUMPTION1

ABSTRACT: Declines in concentrations of dissolved lead occurred at nearly two-thirds of 306 locations on major U.S. rivers from 1974 to 1985. Declines in dissolved lead concentrations are statistically significant (p < 0.10) at approximately one-third of the sampling locations. Statistically significant increases in dissolved lead concentrations occurred at only 6 percent of the sites, but are clustered in the Texas-Gulf and Lower Mississippi regions. Possible explanations for the observed trends in lead concentrations are tested through comparisons with (1) records of lead discharges from major sources including leaded-gasoline consumption and municipal- and industrial-point source discharges, (2) trends in various water-quality constituents such as pH and total alkalinity, and (3) basin characteristics such as drainage area. Statistically significant declines in lead concentrations in streams and gasoline lead (i.e., the largest source of lead at these sites) are highly coincident for the 1979 to 1980 period at most sampling locations. The greatest amount of decline in gasoline lead occurred at sites showing statistically significant downtrends in stream concentrations of lead from 1974 to 1985. No more than 5 percent of the trends in stream lead are influenced by municipal- and industrial-point sources of lead. Factors that affect the transport of dissolved lead, including lead solubility, suspended sediment, and basin characteristics such as drainage basin size, are not significantly related to trends in dissolved lead. Trends in streamflow explain no more than 7 percent of the downtrends in concentrations of lead and may partly explain the frequent increases in lead concentrations in the Texas-Gulf and Lower Mississippi regions.