四川石油天然气工业环境统计体系现状分析及改进对策

针对四川石油天然气工业环境统计中存在的非稳定污染源监测数据的统计价值不高，统计调查方法单一，个别统计指标计算未使用国家统一标准等现状，从环境监测站改组入手，改革统计调查方法，建立以必要的周期性普查为基础，以经常性的抽样调查为主体，同时辅之以全面统计报表，重点调查和科学推算综合运用的统计调查方法体系。     

模糊集值统计法在煤矿安全评价指标权值中的应用

应用模糊集值统计的理论 ,对煤矿安全评价中具有随机性和模糊性的指标进行数学分析 ,进一步改进了其权值的确定方法 ,使其更加符合实际情况 ,并对由此得出的权值进行了可靠性分析。通过实例表明 ,该方法克服了经典统计法的不足 ,提高了煤矿安全评价的实用性和科学性     

NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS IN ILLINOIS RIVERS 1967 TO 1974: COMPARISON AMONG REPORTING AGENCIES1

ABSTRACT: Long term data on surface water quality can sometimes be assembled by combining data collected by different agencies at different times and assuming that between agency differences in data quality are insignificant. The objective of this paper was to assess the quality of riverine nitrate (NO₃) concentrations in Illinois measured and reported by four agencies from 1967 to 1974 by comparing median values for similar sampling locations and periods. A total of 17 river reaches were identified for which two agencies reported NO₃ concentrations during similar periods. Nonparametric comparison of median values and analysis of covariance with discharge as a covariant produced similar results. Nitrate concentrations reported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from 1967 to 1971 were not statistically (P > 0.05) different from values reported by the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS) for two of three river reaches. Additionally, NO₃ concentrations reported by USGS from 1972 to 1974 were not statistically different than concentrations reported by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) for four of five river reaches. From 1969 to 1971, NO₃ concentrations reported by the Illinois Department of Public Heath and the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IDPH/IEPA) were less than one‐fourth the magnitude of values reported by ISWS. The median NO₃ concentrations measured by the Central Illinois Public Service (CIPS) were significantly greater than those measured by USGS and IDPH/IEPA in the three comparable sampling locations. The use of NO₃ concentrations measured by CIPS and IDPH/IEPA prior to 1972 is not recommended.     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

DEVELOPMENT OF EMPIRICAL,GEOGRAPHICALLY SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA: A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS APPROACH1

The need for scientifically defensible water quality standards for nonpoint source pollution control continues to be a pressing environmental issue. The probability of impact at differing levels of nonpoint source pollution was determined using the biological response of instream organisms empirically obtained from a statistical survey. A conditional probability analysis was used to calculate a biological threshold of impact as a function of the likelihood of exceeding a given value of pollution metric for a specified geographic area. Uncertainty and natural variability were inherently incorporated into the analysis through the use of data from a probabilistic survey. Data from wadable streams in the mid‐Atlantic area of the U.S. were used to demonstrate the approach. Benthic macroinvertebrate community index values (EPT taxa richness) were used to identify impacted stream communities. Percent fines in substrate (silt/clay fraction, > 0.06 mm) were used as a surrogate indicator for sedimentation. Thresholds of impact due to sedimentation were identified by three different techniques, and were in the range of 12 to 15 percent fines. These values were consistent with existing literature from laboratory and field studies on the impact of sediments on aquatic life in freshwater streams. All results were different from values determined from current regulatory guidance. Finally, it was illustrated how these thresholds could be used to develop criterion for protection of aquatic life in streams.     

蚯蚓生态滤池中蚯蚓与植物对污水净化的作用评估

构建具有不同蚯蚓和植物配置的4个单级蚯蚓生态滤池,依次编号为A(无蚯蚓无植物)、B(有蚯蚓无植物)、C(有蚯蚓栽种芦苇)和D(有蚯蚓栽种水生鸢尾)。通过比较4个滤池在6个月实验期间对化学需氧量(COD)和总氮(TN)的去除效率,系统分析蚯蚓和植物对滤池去除污染物的影响。实验分2个阶段进行:5月上旬至9月上旬,滤池进水碳氮比恒定为6;9月中旬至11月中旬,滤池每周进水碳氮比交替为3、6、9。研究结果表明,蚯蚓对滤池去除COD有一定的促进作用,且作用强度显著受到进水碳氮比的影响。植物的存在与种类对滤池去除COD效率没有显著影响。蚯蚓和植物对滤池的TN去除效率都没有显著影响。滤池进水的碳氮比是显著影响滤池去除TN效率的主要因素。     

北京市潮白河再生水补水河段水质时空变异

城市河道是城市再生水利用的主要载体,而人工湿地是城市再生水河道补水前主要的水质净化方式.为了解再生水补水与人工湿地对再生水补水段水质的影响,选取北京市潮白河再生水补水河段作为研究对象,利用聚类分析、判别分析及因子分析等方法对不同季节水体的水质情况进行分析.结果表明:研究区内水体氮磷污染严重,其中TN污染表现为NO₃--N、NO₂--N和NH₄+-N的混合型污染.聚类分析结果表明,水质在季节尺度上表现为丰水期（6-9月）和枯水期（2月、3月、5月和12月）两大类;在空间尺度上受再生水补水和湿地净化的影响表现为显著的空间差异性.判别分析结果表明,再生水补给对河道水质的影响无显著季节差异,湿地净化功能在丰水期和枯水期差异较大且丰水期湿地的净化效果最为明显.因子分析结果表明,再生水作为城市河道的补充水源,一方面对河道中的F-、Chl-a等起到稀释作用,另一方面使得水体中的N、P及离子含量增加;丰水期湿地的净化作用使水体中氮磷等有机营养物质含量及ρ（TDS）等显著降低.      

雷达海杂波统计特性建模研究

介绍了海杂波统计特性建模的幅度特性、多普勒谱及空间相关这三个方面的研究状况,对各种建模的思路和模型效果进行了对比总结。对于幅度均值已有多个较为成熟的模型,但适用范围不同,结果差异也很大。幅度分布建模重点解决拖尾问题,复合建模是趋势。除平均谱外,开始研究短时多普勒谱。空间相关性建模主要建立空间相关长度与雷达及海洋参数间的联系,但是研究还不够全面。总的来看,已由单纯经验建模发展为力图在机理研究指导下有一定物理意义的建模。尽管海杂波建模效果愈来愈接近实际,但建模依然存在诸多问题。     

pH值对凯氏蒸馏法氨氮检出量的影响分析研究

土壤、肥料中的氨氮测定常用2mol·L^-1KC浸提一蒸馏法一酸滴定的方法进行测定,其中蒸馏是最关键和最重要的一个环节。以污泥堆肥样品为例,利用统计学原理,研究了汽提蒸馏过程中pH对氨氮检出量的影响。结果显示：pH值在6．5—11．0范围内与氨氮的检出系数是显著的正相关关系（相关系数r=0．9891）;回归方程在0．05的水平下是非常显著的,拟合度很好。进一步做残差和预测分析可以得出：pH值在6．5～10．0范围内,预测值和测定值的符合度更好。