开放市场条件下四川省环保系统各级环境监测站的发展方向

加入WTO后四川省环保系统监测站如何克服自身缺陷，积极应对国内外监测机构的挑战，是未来几年内各监测站所共同面临的问题。本文回顾了我省监测站监测能力现状，分析了入世后各级环境监测站所面对的形势，并结合四川省实际情况提出了我省环保系统环境监测站在开放市场条件下的发展重点和发展方向。     

落实科学发展观,推进莆田市污染治理进程

通过对近年来莆田市环境污染现状的调查分析，对莆田市环境发展趋势作出预测，提出环境污染治理对策措施，以推进莆田市环境污染治理进程。     

北京市耕地面积变化趋势预测及保护对策研究

耕地资源是人类生存和发展最重要的物质基础，也是不可再生的稀缺资源。特别是北京这样的国际大都市，人地矛盾十分突出，每寸土地都显得弥足珍贵。基于1996-2005年北京市的耕地面积数据，利用灰色模型预测方法建立GM（1，1）模型，对北京市2006-2010年的耕地面积变化趋势进行预测。预测结果显示，北京市耕地面积在未来几年内将呈现出持续减少的趋势，2010年耕地面积将比1996年减少约1／2。针对这种趋势和北京市的实际情况，提出了相应的耕地保护对策。     

厄尔尼诺事件对黑龙江省春夏季降水的影响

利用实际监测资料,分析了40年中厄尔尼诺(Elnino)现象与黑龙江省降水距平之间的时空变化关系.结果发现,厄尔尼诺现象发生的当年及前一年,黑龙江省以春季4-6月份少雨干旱与夏秋季7,8月份(除厄尔尼诺年前一年的8月份外)多雨洪涝为主要气候特征;在厄尔尼诺年的下一年,春季4,6月份与秋季8,9月份一般具有少雨干旱的趋势.     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

许昌市臭氧污染趋势及时空分布特征研究

为研究许昌市的臭氧(O3)污染情况及时空分布特征,对2014年-2016年许昌市3个国家环境空气监测点位的监测数据进行了统计分析.结果表明:2014年-2016年,许昌市O3污染状况整体呈加重趋势,2016年污染最为严重;O3浓度和超标天数均具有明显的季节变化特征,春末和夏季的O3污染最为严重;不同季节的O3、NO2、NO和NOx浓度日变化也不尽相同,同时O3具有明显的日变化特征,呈单峰型分布,峰值出现在14:00~15:00;并且O3与NO2具有较好的相关性.     

北京市道路灰尘中污染物含量沿城乡梯度、道路密度梯度的变化特征

采用网格布点法调查了北京市六环范围内220个样点道路地表灰尘样品中的污染物含量.探讨了样点缓冲区内单位面积道路节点数、道路密度和道路灰尘中污染物含量沿城乡梯度的变化特征及各指标间的相关性.结果表明,各指标在研究区内的变幅较大.沿城乡梯度,道路和污染物主要呈现3种变化趋势:①单位面积道路节点数,道路密度,Cu、Cr和Pb沿城乡梯度降低,且开始时降低较快;②Mn和Cd沿城乡梯度变化的程度较低,均值基本维持恒定;③自中心向外围,Ni和有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)先随距离波动降低,随后在郊区均值缓慢增高.道路灰尘中污染物含量趋势转折点位置均大致在距城市中心点15～20 km左右.相关分析表明道路指标和道路灰尘中的Cd含量不具相关性,总硫(TS)、Mn、pH的相关性较弱,与其他各元素的相关性排序为Cu>TN>TOC>Pb>Ni>Cr,较道路密度而言,单位面积节点数和各元素间的相关性更高,该指标可指示道路灰尘中Cu、TN、TOC、Pb、Ni、Cr元素污染.     

四川省“三废”排放为代表的环境状况分析

对“三废”排放情况为代表的环境状况和变化趋势进行研究和阐述。简要地介绍了评价指标体系的选择原则,并利用2003-2010年四川省“三废”排放统计数据,建立了废水、废气和固废为要素的环境状况评价体系,绘制了环境状况变化趋势图。总体来看,以“三废”为代表的环境状况呈现变好的趋势。