Offspring sex ratio variation in the bridled nailtail wallaby, Onychogalea fraenata

The bridled nailtail wallaby is a sexually size dimorphic, promiscuous, solitary macropod. Sex ratios of pouch young were studied at two sites over 3 years, beginning with 14 months of severe drought. Females that were in better condition were more likely to have sons, and condition was dependent on body size. Females at one site were heavier, were consequently in better condition, and produced more sons than females at the other site. Females that declined in condition had more daughters during the most severe part of the drought than females that maintained condition, but endoparasite infection did not affect the pouch young sex ratio. Age also appeared to affect sex ratio adjustment, because weight was strongly influenced by age. Sex ratio bias was not caused by early offspring mortality, but occurred at conception. Mothers did not appear to bias energy expenditure on sons or daughters; males and females did not differ in condition at the end of pouch life. Pouch young sex ratio variation was most consistent with the Trivers-Willard hypothesis, but could also have been influenced by local resource competition, since sons dispersed further than daughters. Offspring condition was related to survival, and was correlated with maternal condition. Received: 14 April 1998 / Accepted after revision: 10 November 1998     

Fragmentation effects on an endangered species across a gradient from the interior to edge of its range

Understanding how habitat fragmentation affects individual species is complicated by challenges associated with quantifying species-specific habitat and spatial variability in fragmentation effects within a species’ range. We aggregated a 29-year breeding survey data set for the endangered marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) from >42,000 forest sites throughout the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and northern California) of the United States. We built a species distribution model (SDM) in which occupied sites were linked with Landsat imagery to quantify murrelet-specific habitat and then used occupancy models to test the hypotheses that fragmentation negatively affects murrelet breeding distribution and that these effects are amplified with distance from the marine foraging habitat toward the edge of the species’ nesting range. Murrelet habitat declined in the Pacific Northwest by 20% since 1988, whereas the proportion of habitat comprising edges increased by 17%, indicating increased fragmentation. Furthermore, fragmentation of murrelet habitat at landscape scales (within 2 km of survey stations) negatively affected occupancy of potential breeding sites, and these effects were amplified near the range edge. On the coast, the odds of occupancy decreased by 37% (95% confidence interval [CI] –54 to 12) for each 10% increase in edge habitat (i.e., fragmentation), but at the range edge (88 km inland) these odds decreased by 99% (95% CI 98 to 99). Conversely, odds of murrelet occupancy increased by 31% (95% CI 14 to 52) for each 10% increase in local edge habitat (within 100 m of survey stations). Avoidance of fragmentation at broad scales but use of locally fragmented habitat with reduced quality may help explain the lack of murrelet population recovery. Further, our results emphasize that fragmentation effects can be nuanced, scale dependent, and geographically variable. Awareness of these nuances is critical for developing landscape-level conservation strategies for species experiencing broad-scale habitat loss and fragmentation.     

Well-designed environmental regulation and firm performance: Swedish evidence on the Porter hypothesis and the effect of regulatory time strategies

Using recent data on a cross-section of Swedish chemical and pulp and paper firms, this paper provides novel empirical insights into the Porter hypothesis. Well-designed environmental regulation can stimulate firms’ innovative capabilities, while at the same time generating innovation offsets that may both offset net compliance costs and yield a competitive edge over those firms that are not affected by such regulations. In doing so, we also test the alleged effectiveness of regulatory time strategies in stimulating innovation activities of regulated firms. We find evidence for the effectiveness of such well-designed regulations: announced rather than existing regulation induces innovation and some innovation offsets. Our results imply that empirical tests of the Porter hypothesis that do not account for its dynamic nature, and that do not measure well-designed regulations, might provide misleading conclusions as to its validity.     

Life-history traits and the fate of translocated populations

Attempts to identify predictors and mechanisms of invasion success have been weakened by poor data quality, mostly because monitoring does not begin immediately after introduction events. To overcome this issue, we used data from conservation translocations of threatened bird species. We analyzed information on >1200 translocation events of >150 bird species to investigate how life-history traits affect population establishment measured based on rates of survival and reproduction. Species position along the slow–fast life-history continuum was a key predictor of translocation success. Species with fast-paced life histories were less likely to survive (over both short- and mid-term) and more likely to breed successfully than species with slow life histories. The temporal partitioning of reproductive effort (number of clutches per year) also affected the probability of successful reproduction. Our results illustrate how conservation-motivated reintroduction programs can provide proxies for the initial stages of the invasion process, enabling empirical tests of predictions from life-history theory and informing management.     

中国城市土地市场有效性的实证研究

将有效市场假说应用于我国城市土地市场中,利用全国土地交易价格指数,采用序列相关检验、游程检验和方差比检验3种方法分别对我国城市土地市场的弱式有效性进行了实证检验,一致得出我国城市土地市场尚未达到弱式有效的结论.提出了对策建议:①营造公平、公开、公正的土地市场环境,发挥市场在配置土地资源方面的基础性作用.②打破对一级土地市场的垄断,构建城乡一体化的土地市场.③构建完善的土地市场指数系统,强化信息基础平台建设.     

Do honey bees tune error in their dances in nectar-foraging and house-hunting?

The "tuned-error" hypothesis states that natural selection has tuned the divergence angle in the dances of the honey bee to produce an optimal scatter of recruits across a resource. Weidenmüller and Seeley (Behav Ecol Sociobiol 46:190–199, 1999) supported this hypothesis by finding smaller divergence angles in dances indicating potential home sites, which are always point sources, than in dances indicating food sources, which often occur in patches. This study tested for the same effect, but controlled for variables, e.g., substrate and context, that may have confounded those results. When performed on the same substrate, divergence angle does not differ between dances for the two resources. Furthermore, dances performed for food within an observation hive exhibit significantly greater divergence angle when performed on comb (as Weidenmüller and Seeley measured food dances) than on hardware cloth (as they measured home-site dances on a swarm). These findings suggest that the angular variance in direction indication in dances is more likely an artifact of physical constraints, rather than an adaptive modification of a behavior that a bee could perform more precisely.     

A calibrated auction-conjoint valuation method: Valuing pork and eggs produced under differing animal welfare conditions

This paper develops a valuation method which generates consistent and systematic estimates of people's preferences for complex multi-attribute goods by inextricably linking auction bids with conjoint ratings. The advantage of the valuation approach is that it permits the estimation of people's values for many potential goods, allows one to decompose people's values for a good into its sub-components, and permits the study of preference heterogeneity without distributional assumptions. We apply the method to an important and increasingly controversial topic: animal welfare. The method is used to determine people's preferences for eggs and pork produced from different production systems. Data from experiments conducted in three diverse U.S. locations (Chicago, IL; Dallas, TX; and Wilmington, NC) indicates that people are, on average, willing to pay $0.95 more for a dozen eggs raised in an aviary, pasture system vs. a cage system, and are willing to pay $2.02 more for two-pounds of pork chops raised in a pasture system as opposed to a crate system.     

基于正态分布假设检验的湖泊营养盐浓度分级评价方法研究

目前湖泊营养盐浓度级别评价常采用的平均值法忽视了变量的不确定性.本文据此提出一种基于正态分布总体均值假设检验的级别评价方法,并结合我国地表水环境质量标准(GB3838—2002)对营养盐浓度的分类,提出了简便快捷的图示法.结果发现,该方法能体现营养盐浓度变量的不确定性,融合先验级别假设,将决策风险定量化,可提供较为广阔的决策空间.同时,采用该方法对滇池外海观音山监测断面氨氮浓度的水质级别进行评价,发现先验级别假设、样本容量和决策偏好对评价结果有显著影响;与平均值法的比较发现,假设检验法具有更小的错误概率(例如,样本容量13时,风险0.21),评价结果具有更高的可信度,验证了假设检验法的适用性.     

Stationarity: Wanted Dead or Alive?1

Lins, Harry F. and Timothy A. Cohn, 2011. Stationarity: Wanted Dead or Alive? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):475‐480. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00542.x Abstract: Aligning engineering practice with natural process behavior would appear, on its face, to be a prudent and reasonable course of action. However, if we do not understand the long‐term characteristics of hydroclimatic processes, how does one find the prudent and reasonable course needed for water management? We consider this question in light of three aspects of existing and unresolved issues affecting hydroclimatic variability and statistical inference: Hurst‐Kolmogorov phenomena; the complications long‐term persistence introduces with respect to statistical understanding; and the dependence of process understanding on arbitrary sampling choices. These problems are not easily addressed. In such circumstances, humility may be more important than physics; a simple model with well‐understood flaws may be preferable to a sophisticated model whose correspondence to reality is uncertain.     

Testosterone predicts future dominance rank and mating activity among male chacma baboons

Despite the many benefits that testosterone has on male reproduction, sustaining high levels of testosterone for long periods can be costly. The challenge hypothesis predicts that males will show temporarily sustained elevations of testosterone at critical periods, counterbalanced by decreased levels during noncritical periods. We investigated male testosterone measures extracted from fecal samples in a group of chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) living in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Because rank serves as a proxy for competition for mates, we examined how male testosterone was related to dominance rank, age, aggression, and mating activity. Males showed an elevation in testosterone at maturity; young adult males had the highest testosterone levels followed by a steady decline with age. Among dispersing males, testosterone was temporarily elevated in the month following dispersal. After controlling for age, testosterone and rank were unrelated, but testosterone and changes in rank were positively correlated, such that males rising in rank had higher testosterone than males falling in rank. Thus, for males in this group, testosterone was predictive of a male's rank trajectory, or future rank. Similarly, male testosterone levels predicted future, rather than current, mating activity. Finally, male testosterone and aggression rates were unrelated during stable periods in the dominance hierarchy but positively related during unstable periods when high ranks were being contested. In general, our results support the challenge hypothesis with males exhibiting elevated testosterone in association with the acquisition of high rank (ensuring access to mates), rather than with mating itself.