基于轮廓似然函数的PM_(10)极值浓度分析

以R软件为分析工具,选择GEV(generalized extreme value distribution)模型拟合四川省泸州市2003～2007年期间PM10每月最高日平均浓度数据,采用极大似然法估计模型的3个参数即位置参数、尺度参数、形状参数,利用所得的参数估计值计算得出某一标准值(如GB3095—1996)的重现期;进一步利用参数估计值计算轮廓似然函数,估计某一段固定时间间隔的PM10浓度的重现值以及其置信区间。结果表明,GEV模型能很好地拟合泸州市PM10数据,利用轮廓似然函数估计的不同时间间隔的重现值准确度高,统计结果可以为环境主管部门发布污染状况预警信息提供参考。     

O&M SPENDING LEVELS IN THIRD WORLD IRRIGATION SYSTEMS: EXPLORING ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: Third World irrigation and drainage systems have experienced major declines recently in both capability and performance. This is due initially to working them well beyond their design capaci-capacities; scouring, sedimentation, and overtopping result. Chronic O&M underfunding then adds heavily to this worsening malaise. International donors have assisted irrigation departments with rehabilitation projects and programs to improve O&M effectiveness on a grand (billions of dollars) scale. Despite their historical propensity to examine, almost fastidiously, program economic justifications (B/C, IRR, etc), the donors apparently have glossed over two basic analytic elements for (a) more spending on O&M as distinct from an equivalent spending on other means to provide farmers with an m³ of water; and (b) different levels of O&M spending on canals and drains. Surely those different levels provide differing benefits, in total, and at the margin. Which level is most economic? This paper identifies these latter analytical issues, posits methodologies key to an O&M spending level analysis, and discusses the information base. Particular attention is paid to identifying relevant costs and benefits, and to suggesting supplementary criteria for O&M spending level selection. The paper is an exercise in delineation of an imminently practical area of irrigation engineering economics.     

中国区域能源效率发展演变趋势的R/S分形分析

改革开放以来中国能源效率不断地提高,但是在某些年份存在波动现象.采用非线性分形理论及分形分析R/S方法,科学定量地描述了中国以及各个地区能源效率的演变趋势.首先采用分形理论对1978-2008年的中国能源效率时间序列数据进行研究,结果显示,中国能源效率发展演变存在Hurst现象,具有明显的分形特征.并依照“五年计划”来划分时间序列样本为研究区间,结合“五年计划”详尽地解释说明了中国能源效率变动的原因.然后将数据扩大为样本期为1995-2008年29地区的面板数据,采用面板变系数模型进一步对各个地区的能源效率进行分析,发现除海南外其他地区的能源效率演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律,各个地区能源效率将继续保持增长.西部6个地区以及东北三省的能源效率演变趋势高于全国水平,说明“西部大开发”战略和“振兴东北”战略都已经显效.     

联苯代谢对微生物的生长胁迫及分裂抑制

以联苯/多氯联苯降解菌株R04（Rhodococcus sp.R04）和几种模式微生物为研究对象，利用高效液相色谱、荧光显微镜、扫描电子显微镜等分析微生物在联苯及其代谢物培养条件下细胞分裂和形态的变化.结果表明联苯及其代谢产物对红球菌R04和几种模式微生物细胞的分裂有抑制作用，并对部分微生物形态有影响.与前体-联苯及其代谢产物2-羟基-6-酮基-6-苯基-2，4-己二烯酸相比，2，3-二羟基联苯对G⁺、G^-细菌，或是酵母细胞分裂都有较强的抑制和形态的改变.2，3-二羟基联苯导致R.R04和缺陷型R.R04细胞形成不完整隔膜的比例增加；造成96.4%的大肠杆菌BL21细胞表面凹陷，胞质内容物流失，菌体体积缩小；导致枯草芽孢杆菌89.6%的细胞体积明显缩小；导致金黄色葡萄球菌基本没有细胞能形成完整的分裂隔膜；导致红酵母细胞能进行出芽生殖的比例从64.2%降低到19.3%，但对其细胞形态无明显改变.联苯代谢物2，3-二羟基联苯对红球菌R04及其它微生物细胞分裂和增殖的抑制作用比其前体-联苯强，建议在研究环境化合物与微生物互作时，应考虑环境化合物代谢的毒性效应.     

Resource exploitation and cross-region growth trajectories: nonparametric estimates for Chile

As a sector of primary concern for national development strategies, mining keeps stimulating an intensive debate in Chile, regarding its role for long-term growth. Partly drawn on theoretical contributions to growth and mineral resource accounting, this analysis assesses patterns of economic growth across Chilean regions. The theoretical and methodological rationale for focusing on weak sustainability, by testing convergence across regions in a distribution dynamics perspective, is first discussed. This is followed by a brief review of policy issues and previous empirical findings of concern to Chile's mining and regional growth. Panel data over the period 1960-2001 are analysed, with growth measured in terms of both income per capita as such, and sustainable measures of this variable. Kernel density and quantile regression estimates indicate persistent bimodal (if not possibly trimodal) distribution of nationally standardised regional incomes per capita, whereby conditions for cross-region convergence are matched only within the inner range of this distribution.     

流域水污染综合防治的生态效益分析

将模糊综合评价和pead生长曲线法引入到流域水污染防治的效益分析当中，建立了流域水污染防治的生态效益分析方法。以云南省寻甸县牛栏江小流域水污染综合防治规划为例，采用模糊数学法对水污染造成的水资源价值损失进行了估算，采用曲线法对水污染综合防治的生态价值进行分析，得刭水资源价值和生态价值分别为2730．3万元／年和491．45万元／年。最后将所有经济效益和费用贴现，计算效费比为3．68。分析结果可知，牛栏江小流域水污染综合防治具有良好的环境效益、经济效益和社会效益。     

新中国60年来农业多功能性演变的研究

农业多功能性是近年来国际可持续发展研究与政府闻谈判磋商的热点问题.科学地认识农业多功能性及其演变趋势,对于新时期中国可持续发展战略的制定与实施具有重要意义.鉴于此,该文通过对相关文献和调研资料的整理,从农业的产品生产功能、经济社会功能、生态环境功能、文化休闲功能4个方面.对建国60年来农业多功能性演变的基本趋势进行了初步研究.结果表明,农业产品生产功能在波折中不断提高,而地域之间呈此消彼长现象,总的趋势是农产品生产由南方向北方、由东部向西部转移;农业的经济功能已经大大弱化,但就业和社会保障功能依然极为重要;农业对生态环境的影响,总体来看负面效应要大于正面效应;农业文化传承功能呈全面衰落趋势,但旅游功能则在近年来大为增强.依据这一研究结果,该文进一步探讨了增强我国农业多功能性的政策措施.     

Modulation of steroidogenesis by coastal waters and sewage effluents of Hong Kong, China, using the H295R assay

BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: The presence of a variety of pollutants in the aquatic environment that can potentially interfere with the production of sex steroid hormones in wildlife and humans has been of increasing concern. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of extracts from Hong Kong marine waters, and influents and effluents from wastewater treatment plants on steroidogenesis using the H295R cell bioassay. After exposing H295R cells to extracts of water, the expression of four steroidogenic genes and the production of three steroid hormones were measured. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Water samples were collected during the summer of 2005 from 24 coastal marine areas and from the influents and effluents of two major waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) in Hong Kong, China. Samples were extracted by solid phase extraction (SPE). H295R cells were exposed for 48 h to dilutions of these extracts. Modulations of the expression of the steroidogenic genes CYP19, CYP17, 3betaHSD2, and CYP11beta2 were determined by measuring mRNA concentrations by real-time polymerase chain reaction (Q-RT-PCR). Production of the hormones progesterone (P), estradiol (E2), and testosterone (T) was quantified using enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). RESULTS: Extracts from samples collected in two fish culture areas inhibited growth and proliferation of H295R cells at concentrations greater or equal to 10(5) L equivalents. The cells were exposed to the equivalent concentration of active substances in 10,000 L of water. Thus, to observe the same level of effect as observed in vitro on aquatic organisms would require a bioaccumulation factor of this same magnitude. None of the other 22 marine samples affected growth of the cells at any dilution tested. Twelve of the marine water samples completely inhibited the expression of CYP19 without affecting E2 production; inhibition of CYP17 expression was observed only in one of the samples while expression of CYP11beta2 was induced as much as five- and ninefold after exposure of cells to extracts from two locations. The expression of the progesterone gene 3betaHSD2 was not affected by any of the samples; only one sample induced approximately fourfold the production of E2. Although more than twofold inductions were observed for P and T production, none of these values were statistically significant to conclude effects on the production of these two hormones. While influents from WWTPs did not affect gene expression, an approximately 30% inhibition in the production of E2 and a 40% increase in P occurred for the exposure with influents from the Sha Tin and Stonecutters WWTPs, respectively. Effluents from WWTPs did not affect the production of any of the studied hormones, but a decrement in the expression of the aldosterone gene CYP11beta2 was observed for the Sha Tin WWTP exposure. No direct correlation could be established between gene expression and hormone production. DISCUSSION: Observed cytotoxicity in the two samples from fish culture areas suggest the presence of toxic compounds; chemical analysis is required for their full identification. Although effluents from WWTPs did not affect hormone production, other types of endocrine activity such as receptor-mediated effects cannot be ruled out. Interactions due to the complexity of the samples and alternative steroidogenic pathways might explain the lack of correlation between gene expression and hormone production results. CONCLUSIONS: Changes observed in gene expression and hormone production suggest the presence in Hong Kong coastal waters of pollutants with endocrine disruption potential and others of significant toxic effects. The aromatase and aldosterone genes seem to be the most affected by the exposures, while E2 and P are the hormones with more significant changes observed. Results also suggest effectiveness in the removing of compounds with endocrine activity by the WWTPs studied, as effluent samples did not significantly affect hormone production. The H295R cell showed to be a valuable toll in the battery required for the analysis of endocrine disrupting activities of complex environmental samples. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Due to the intrinsic complexity of environmental samples, a combination of analytical tools is required to realistically assess environmental conditions, especially in aquatic systems. In the evaluation of endocrine disrupting activities, the H295R cell bioassay should be used in combination with other genomic, biological, chemical, and hydrological tests to establish viable modes for endocrine disruption and identify compounds responsible for the observed effects.     

Dissolved Ions of Trace and Major Elements and in Suspended Sediments in the Nile, Egypt

Dissolved ions and suspended participates from twelve water samples from Sohag (different localities) and Aswan (behind and below the High Dam) areas were collected along the River Nile, upper Egypt, which is at present affected seriously by pressure of population, intense industrial and agricultural activities, and atmospheric fallout. Eighteen trace and nine major ions in solution and fourteen metals in suspension were analyzed to establish whether elements are of anthropogenic or natural origin. Results of this study show that the Nile water was contaminated with high concentrations of dissolved lead, and with copper, nickel and mercury to a lesser extent, suggesting that these contaminants are generated from anthropogenic activities. the other dissolved ions in the Nile are of natural origin because their metal concentrations fall within the range of the normal background and average world dissolved values for inland waters. Results show that the usual constituents of suspended particulates in the Nile seem to be some metals (Cu and Zn) adsorbed on iron and manganese oxide/hydroxide. the results also reveal that most trace and major metal particulates increase from south to north due to activities associated with the dense population living along the Nile banks. No significant differences were observed between the chemical composition of trace and major elements taken on the east and west river Nile banks.     

空调压缩机冷媒爆炸反应特征分析

冷媒与空气的反应特征对空调压缩机安全性有重要影响.本文采用最小自由能原理,分别对两种冷媒R407C和R410A与空气的混合气体的爆炸反应参数进行了数值计算,得到了不同初始压力和不同冷媒含量条件下,混合气体爆炸反应温度和压力,分析了混合气体反应压力条件和爆炸极限范围.结果表明:初始压力低于0.2 MPa时,R407C-空气混合气体和R410A-空气混合气体均不会发生爆炸;初始压力超过0.3 MPa时,混合气体能够发生爆炸,爆炸反应温度和压力随着初始压力的升高而升高;R407C和R410A质量分数分别在34%、35%左右,混合气体反应温度和压力达到最大值.R407C和R410A易燃易爆特征相近;但爆炸范围都比氟利昂(R22)气体宽,即同样的条件下更容易发生爆炸.该计算结果能够为新型冷媒R407C和R410A的安全使用提供一定的依据.