Impact of the quality of climate models for modelling species occurrences in countries with poor climatic documentation: a case study from Bolivia

The quality of climate models has largely been overlooked as a possible source of uncertainty that may affect the outcomes of species distribution models, especially in the tropics, where comparatively few climatic stations are available. We compared the geographical discrepancies and potential conservation implications of using two different climate models (Saga and Worldclim) in combination with the species modelling approach Maxent in Bolivia. We estimated ranges of selected bird and fern species biogeographically restricted to either humid montane forest of the northern Bolivian Andes or seasonal dry tropical forests (in the Andes and southern lowlands). Saga and Worldclim predicted roughly similar climate patterns of temperature that were significantly correlated. Precipitation layers of both climate models were also roughly similar, but showed important differences. Species ranges estimated with Worldclim and Saga likewise produced different results. Ranges of species endemic to humid montane forests estimated with Saga had higher AUC (Area under the curve) values than those estimated with Worldclim, which for example predicted the occurrence of humid montane forest bird species near Lake Titicaca, an area that is clearly unsuitable for these species. Likewise, Worldclim overpredicted the occurrence of fern and bird species in the lowlands of the Chapare region and well south of the Andean Elbow, where more seasonal biomes occur. By contrast, Saga predictions were coherent with the known distribution of humid montane forests in the northern Bolivian Andes. Estimated ranges of species endemic to seasonal dry tropical forests predicted with Saga and Worldclim were not statistically different in most cases. However, detailed comparisons revealed that Saga was able to distinguish fragments of seasonal dry tropical forests in rain-shadow valleys of the northern Bolivian Andes, whereas Worldclim was not. These differences highlight the neglected influence of climate layers on modelling results and the importance of using the most accurate climate data available when modelling species distributions.     

小陇山自然保护区华山松群落8个主要种群的生态位研究

小陇山国家级自然保护区是中国华山松的主要分布区之一。在野外大量调查基础上,运用Levins和Shan-non-Wiener生态位宽度、生态位重叠和生态位相似比例等指数,对林区华山松群落中8个主要种群生态位特征进行研究。结果表明,生态位宽度值大小依次为华山松、锐齿栎、披针叶忍冬、漆树、甘肃山楂、毛栗、辽东栎和少脉椴。华山松Shannon-Wiener生态位宽度值最大,为0.988 8,其次是锐齿栎,为0.877 6,少脉椴最小,为0.352 9。该群落种群间生态位重叠值普遍较低,表明多数种群间竞争较小。建群种华山松与其他种群间生态位重叠值较大,为0.079 1~0.101 3,而其他种群与华山松间生态位重叠值却较小,为0.015 4~0.069 0,华山松与毛栗的重叠值最大,为0.101 3,华山松与少脉椴的重叠值最小,为0.079 1。生态位相似比例在0.5以上的种群对有4对,占14.28%,分别是华山松-锐齿栎、华山松-披针叶忍冬、锐齿栎-披针叶忍冬和锐齿栎-漆树种群对,在0.5以下的有24对,占85.72%,表明群落中多数种群对资源利用的相似性程度较小。作为中国华山松的分布地之一,秦岭西段小陇山林区具有暖...     

What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods

Species distribution model is the term most frequently used in ecological modelling, but other authors used instead predictive habitat distribution model or species-habitat models. A consensual ecological modelling terminology that avoids misunderstandings and takes into account the ecological niche theory does not exist at present. Moreover, different studies differ in the type of niche that is represented by similar distribution models. I propose to use as standard ecological modelling terminology the terms “ecological niche”, “potential niche”, “realized niche” models (for modelling their respective niches), and “habitat suitability map” (for the output of the niche models). Therefore, the user can understand more easily that models always forecast species’ niche and relate more closely the different types of niche models.     

甘南高寒草甸植物群落物种多度分布特征

为分析甘南高寒草甸植物群落物种多度分布格局对海拔梯度的响应,探讨物种多样性的形成规律及维持机制,采用典型样地调查法采集数据信息,并通过RAD软件程序包对实验数据进行拟合分析.结果表明：植物群落物种多样性随海拔的升高呈现先增加后降低的“中间膨胀”模式,海拔3500m处群落物种多样性达到最大.利用5个模型对海拔梯度上全部物种多度分布进行拟合发现,甘南高寒草甸植物群落物种多度分布符合生态位模型,尤其是geo模型,利用该模型可以很好地拟合群落物种多度分布格局,同时也说明生态位分化对高寒草甸植物群落物种多度分布起主要作用.常见种多度分布的最优拟合模型为geo模型,其与全部物种的最优拟合模型一致;而稀有种多度分布的最优拟合模型为rane模型,说明常见种是影响不同海拔梯度群落物种多度分布格局的主要原因,其对群落生产力和稳定性的维持有不可替代的作用,但稀有种因其独特的功能性状也在一定程度上影响着群落结构,二者以各自不同的方式共同维系着高寒草甸的物种多样性.     

Does the risk of encountering lions influence African herbivore behaviour at waterholes?

A central question in the study of predator–prey relationships is to what extent prey behaviour is determined by avoidance of predators. Here, we test whether the long-term risk of encountering lions and the presence of lions in the vicinity influence the behaviour of large African herbivores at waterholes through avoidance of high-risk areas, increases in group size, changes in temporal niche or changes in the time spent in waterhole areas. In Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, we monitored waterholes to study the behaviour of nine herbivore species under different risks of encountering lions. We radio-collared 26 lions in the study area which provided the opportunity to monitor whether lions were present during observation sessions and to map longer-term seasonal landscapes of risk of encountering lions. Our results show that the preferred prey species for lions (buffalo, kudu and giraffe) avoided risky waterholes. Group size increased as encounter risk increased for only two species (wildebeest and zebra), but this effect was not strong. Interestingly, buffalo avoided the hours of the day which are dangerous when the long-term and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and all species showed avoidance of waterhole use at night times when lions were in the vicinity. This illustrates well how prey can make temporal adjustments to avoid dangerous periods coinciding with predator hunting. Additionally, many herbivores spent more time accessing water to drink when the long- and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and they showed longer potential drinking time when the long-term risk of encountering lions was high, suggesting higher levels of vigilance. This study illustrates the diversity of behavioural adjustments to the risk of encountering a predator and how prey respond differently to temporal variations in this risk.     

循环经济理论思索

循环经济是对近现代人类社会长期、大规模、高强度、未善待大自然的开发活动导致自然资源和生态环境逼近其耐受极限而进行反思的产物.从经济-社会-科技-自然多元复合人工自组织系统角度,研究了循环经济的科学内涵,指出循环经济是建立在组织结构协同基础上的物质循环与能量梯级利用,是集约经济的高级形态和理想模式.针对循环经济包含的若干属性特征,论述了5个基本理论问题,包括守恒与平衡、循环与协调、互动整合与倍增效应、聚集经济与产业集群、生态学基本原理应用和生态系统服务.并就生态工业系统规划设计涉及的基本方法、关键环节、人力投入等给出了政策建议.      

Worldwide effects of non-native species on species–area relationships

Non-native species have invaded most parts of the world, and the invasion process is expected to continue and accelerate. Because many invading non-native species are likely to become permanent inhabitants, future consideration of species-area relationships (SARs) should account for non-native species, either separately or jointly with native species. If non-native species occupy unused niches and space in invaded areas and extinction rate of native species remains low (especially for plants), the resultant SARs (with both native and non-native species) will likely be stronger. We used published and newly compiled data (35 data sets worldwide) to examine how species invasions affect SARs across selected taxonomic groups and diverse ecosystems around the world. We first examined the SARs for native, non-native, and all species. We then investigated with linear regression analyses and paired or unpaired t tests how degree of invasion (proportion of non-native species) affected postinvasion SARs. Postinvasion SARs for all species (native plus non-native) became significantly stronger as degree of invasion increased (r² = 0.31, p = 0.0006), thus, reshaping SARs worldwide. Overall, native species still showed stronger and less variable SARs. Also, slopes for native species were steeper than for non-native species (0.298 vs. 0.153). There were some differences among non-native taxonomic groups in filling new niches (especially for birds) and between islands and mainland ecosystems. We also found evidence that invasions may increase equilibrial diversity. Study of such changing species–area curves may help determine the probability of future invasions and have practical implications for conservation.     

Fundamental Species Niche: Mechanism of Formation and Ecological Significance

Evolutionary stasis, or the long-term (over hundreds of thousands or even millions of years) existence of species in a phenotypically unchanging state, is conditioned by a counterbalance of directional selection vectors acting in opposition to one another. Fluctuations of living conditions for a species, leading to partial and often reversible disturbances of the counterbalance, lead to the development of redundant functional capacities of organisms. This redundancy determines the boundaries of the fundamental species niche and allows the realized niches of populations to change their spatiotemporal location within these boundaries without disturbing the counterbalance.     

羌塘高原人与野生动物冲突的成因

随着自然保护事业的发展,人与野生动物冲突加剧成为自然保护与地区发展面临的新问题。但人与野生动物冲突研究具有多主体性、复杂性和跨学科性,研究难度大。本文以羌塘高原为例,采用人与野生动物相互作用社会生态系统的概念,梳理了人与野生动物冲突主体的规模、分布,识别了食草野生动物与家畜争食牧草、人类聚落与野生动物竞争生存空间、草场围栏分隔栖息地及阻断迁徙通道等三种主要冲突类型。考虑草畜兽平衡核算了草地承载状况,模拟了家畜与野生动物生存空间重叠,刻画了草场围栏对栖息地及迁徙通道的影响。从重叠空间的资源竞争及人类活动扰动等方面剖析了人与野生动物冲突成因。可为厘清冲突机制,提高干预效果提供新认知。     

古田山国家自然保护区黄山松林主要种群生态位研究

采用样方法进行调查,每个样地面积为20m×20m。测度主要种群的生态位宽度、生态位相似比例、生态位重叠值。结果表明,黄山松、木荷、野漆树、甜槠等有较大的生态位宽度,其Levins生态位宽度(Bi值)和Hurlbert生态位宽度(Ba值)分别为0.7619、0.6517、0.5886、0.5384和0.9175、0.6278、0.5571、0.4377;野鸭椿的生态位宽度最小,其Bi值和Ba值分别为0.3655和0.2343。黄山松、木荷、野漆树、甜槠等生态位宽度较大的树种,生态位相似性比例高;而生态位宽度较小的物种,生态位相似性比例较小。黄山松、木荷、野漆树、甜槠等生态位宽度较大种群之间具有较大的生态位重叠。