雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估

开展短期内高浓度空气污染造成的人体健康风险评价以及健康经济损失研究,对推进城市大气污染防控,保证人民群众的健康水平具有重要的科学价值和实际意义.研究选择2013年1月发生的北京市雾霾重污染事件,采用泊松回归模型评价全市居民对10~15日高浓度PM2.5暴露的急性健康损害风险,并采用环境价值评估方法估算人群健康损害的经济损失.结果表明,短期高浓度PM2.5污染对人群健康风险较高,约造成早逝201例,呼吸系统疾病住院1 056例,心血管疾病住院545例,儿科门诊7 094例,内科门诊16 881例,急性支气管炎10 132例,哮喘7 643例.相关健康经济损失高达4.89亿元(95%CI:2.04~7.49),其中早逝与急性支气管炎、哮喘三者占总损失的90%以上.建议应针对不同人群不同健康终点的健康风险进行健康预警并开展及早医学干预,以降低类似空气重污染事件给居民健康带来的风险和损失.     

吉林西部农田生态系统氮平衡及其水环境影响研究

针对吉林省西部地区农田生态系统特点,以1997—2011年统计数据为基础,建立了基于物质守恒原理的氮平衡模型,估算了该地区农田生态系统的氮收支情况,并分析了其对水环境的影响.结果表明:近15年该区氮输入量平均值为56.98×104t·a-1,其中化肥输入氮占总氮的79.59%;氮输出量平均值为42.60×104t·a-1,以作物收获输出为主;氮平衡量变化范围为10.17×104~21.91×104t·a-1,均值为14.38×104t·a-1;氮平衡模型的各项呈增长趋势,受农业生产情况差异的影响,年际间时序变化较大,县市间空间分布差异明显.吉林西部农田生态系统氮平衡表现为盈余状态,氮素的盈余主要受氮肥施用和作物收获影响,农田生态系统氮素的持续盈余并累积对水环境构成一定程度的威胁,借助该区水环境监测数据进行综合分析,受盈余氮素的影响,该区地表水和地下水水质均体现出不同程度的氮超标.     

基于第二次全国土地调查的云南省坝区县、半山半坝县和山区县的划分

云南是我国西部的典型山区省份,地形坡度<8°的坝区面积仅占土地总面积的6%左右。应用云南省第二次全国土地调查中对各县（市、区）≥1 km²坝子的调查和核定成果,选取坝区耕地面积比例、坝区土地面积比例、≥100 km²坝子数等3 个单项指标,并构建了综合指标--坝区土地综合指数,采用主导指标与综合分析相结合的方法,对全省129 个县（市、区） 进行坝区县、半山半坝县和山区县的划分。结果表明,全省有21 个县属于坝区县,37 个县属于半山半坝县,71 个县属于山区县。这一研究修订了以往云南省仅以坝区耕地面积比例为指标而划分出的坝区县、半山半坝县和山区县方案,为云南省及各地合理地进行产业布局（尤其是农业生产布局）、保护坝区优质耕地资源提供科学依据和基础支撑。     

生态社会主义及其双重价值研究

生态社会主义是当代西方一种具有重要影响的左翼社会思潮,它致力于生态原则与社会主义的结合,要求超越资本主义与现存的社会主义模式,主张在对资本主义进行批判和建议的基础上,建立新的绿色社会、生态现代化的社会和全面发展的社会。生态社会主义具有历史的进步性与理论和实践上的局限性双重社会价值,我们应当汲取生态社会主义的积极思想,为中国生态文明建设提供有益借鉴。     

我国矿产资源国家所有权的价值考量

我国经济高速发展的同时,出现了矿产资源大量消耗和环境严重污染的问题。许多学者认为是矿产资源国家所有权惹的祸,极力倡导所有权改制。从理性的角度出发分析,出现这种现象并不是国家所有权惹的祸,而是国家所有权的管理体制不再适应今天市场化的要求,应从管理体制和竞争方面来加强矿产资源的管理。     

Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision‐aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science‐based problem, we suggest that a clear decision‐making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers’ choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade‐offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision‐focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante     

新时期高速公路建设节约用地创新性研究

"十一五"期间,我国提出了新版国家高速公路网络规划,新一轮的高速公路建设热潮正在展开,同时高速公路建设与节约土地资源,特别是高速公路建设与保护耕地资源之间的矛盾日益显著.结合国家现行土地利用政策,就今后在高速公路建设中如何有效节约土地资源,从政策机制、项目管理、施工技术等对建设高速公路节约用地提出了创新性思考和可行性建议.     

Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

Magnitude and distribution of option value for the Washakie Wilderness,northwest Wyoming,USA

Option value is estimated for the Washakie Wilderness, northwest Wyoming, USA, using the contingent valuation technique. Consumer surplus, the traditional measure of economic value, is estimated separately and compared with option value. Several populations are tested, including Washakie visitors, Yellowstone National Park visitors, and residents from four metropolitan test markets: Salt Lake City, Utah; Portland, Oregon; Nashville, Tennessee; and Orlando, Florida, USA. The average annual preservation option value (consumer surplus) expressed by on-site wilderness visitors is $46.17 ($80.13), by urban residents is $9.70 ($8.97), and by rural residents is $8.43 ($7.80). Four selected attributes are determined to be important in motivating option demand for the Washakie, including existence value, bequest value, the desire for an on-site visit, and interest in securing the visiting privileges of others. The results suggest that option value is important in wilderness valuation and that off-site users account for a large part of the economic value of wilderness.     

水资源研究中几个问题的探讨

本文讨论了区域水资源的评价问题.无论是地表水、地下水,还是土壤水都是来源于大气降水,降水资源才是区域总水资源;同时讨论了区域水资源的平衡原理.降水资源转化了截留水、地表水、土壤水和地下水4项水资源.该文对这2种不同的水体进行了深入讨论,着重论述了土壤水资源的概念及其特征.并对潜水蒸发和水资源的价值问题提出了看法.