沙堆模型动力学特性与灾害系统演化预测研究

基于自组织临界性的理论框架,针对处于周期区与混沌区之间状态的灾害系统,研究其可预测性及预测方法.通过均匀和非均匀沙堆对比实验,发现两类沙堆模型表现出两种动力学行为--自组织临界性和准周期性.采用时序分析、功率谱分析和R/S分析等多种方法分析了两类系统的演化行为,反映了灾害系统的可预测特征;进一步提出了灾害预测的几个研究方向及方法.最后以极值统计法为例,介绍了其在两类灾害预测中的应用.     

西部国内旅游远程市场旅游产品开发

旅游产品的开发水平是西部旅游业发展的制约因素.在西部国内旅游营销中,要把东部客源市场作为远程旅游目标市场,远程旅游产品的开发要以市场为导向.在分析东部客源市场特点的基础上,提出了西部国内旅游远程市场旅游产品的开发策略:①体现西部特色,与东部旅游产品形成互补;②以资源保护为前提,开发生态型旅游产品;③整合西部旅游资源,开发跨区域旅游精品;④协调好各旅游要素的功能,形成不同等级的旅游服务系统;⑤针对东部地区客源市场特点设计旅游产品;⑥重视老年旅游和青少年学生旅游产品的开发.     

SOLUTE TRANSPORT IN THREE‐DIMENSIONAL SATURATED POROUS MEDIA HAVING SELF‐SIMILAR HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: Customarily, it has been assumed that hydraulic conductivity is a stationary, homogeneous stochastic process with a finite variance for stochastic analysis of solute transport in the subsurface. That the distribution of hydraulic conductivity may have a fractal behavior with long range correlations was suggested from field data analyses. This motivates us to further investigate how the fractal behavior of permeability distribution impacts solute transport in porous media. This study provides longitudinal and transverse macrodispersivity coefficients and the variance of the solute concentration. Longitudinal and transverse macrodispersivity coefficients are found to depend strongly on the fractal dimension (D) of logarithmic hydraulic conductivity (logK). The longitudinal and transverse macrodispersivity coefficients are the highest when D = 1, and the values decrease monotonically to zero at D = 2. Both coefficients correspond to the characteristic length scale of the logK distribution, thus are scale dependent parameters. The ratio of the transverse to the longitudinal macrodispersivity coefficient is on the order of 10^‐1 to 10^‐4. Concentration variance also decreases with the fractal dimension of logK. There is no spatial spreading of solute for D = 2, and the concentration variance reaches zero for this case.     

安钢高炉煤气干式净化长袋脉冲除尘技术

干式脉冲煤气布袋除尘作为“十五”国家重点推进的40项冶金节能环保技术的措施之一,成为国内在建高炉优先选择的工艺技术,也是目前高炉改造湿法除尘工艺的技术方向,近几年此技术已成功应用于各大型高炉。较湿法除尘相比各类效益明显,已成为今后大型高炉煤气除尘技术发展的趋势,安钢6#、7#高炉（450 m^3）自使用该技术以来,经过实践摸索,逐渐取得了一些较先进的经验。     

长输管道数据采集系统的成本优化模型

本文提出了一种面向长输管道数据采集系统的成本优化模型。该模型综合利用无线和有线通信系统,高效利用公网基础设施和专用通信节点,使数据采集系统的成本最小化。本文采用了分而治之的方法,对提出的模型进行了求解,并通过分析模型存在的一些问题,指出了下一步的工作。     

Metal Contamination of the Natural Environment in Norway from Long Range Atmospheric Transport

Long range atmospheric transport is the most important sourceof contamination to the natural environment in Norway with manyheavy metals. Investigations based on aerosol studies, bulkdeposition measurements and moss analysis show that airborne transport from other parts of Europe is the major mode for supplyof vanadium, zinc, arsenic, selenium, molybdenum, cadmium, tin,antimony, tellurium, thallium, lead, and bismuth, whereas metalssuch as chromium, nickel, and copper are mainly derived from point sources within Norway and in northwestern Russia close tothe Norwegian border. Elements associated with long range transport show substantial enrichment in the humus horizon of natural soils in southern Norway, sometimes to levels suspected to cause effects on soil microbial processes. E.g. lead concentration values of 150–200 ppm are observed in the mostcontaminated areas in the south as compared to about 5 ppm inthe far north. Elements such as lead and cadmium also show enrichment in some terrestrial food chains. These elements alsoshow considerably elevated levels over background concentrationsin the water and sediment of small lakes in the southern part ofthe country. Retrospective studies based on ombrogenous peatcores indicate that long range transport has been a significantsource of heavy metal contamination in southern Norway for thelast couple of centuries. The deposition of most heavy metals inNorway has been considerably reduced over the last 20 yr, withthe exception of contributions in the north from Russian smelters.     

Use of radar detectors to track attendance of albatrosses at fishing vessels

Despite international waters covering over 60% of the world's oceans, understanding of how fisheries in these regions shape ecosystem processes is surprisingly poor. Seabirds forage at fishing vessels, which has potentially deleterious effects for their population, but the extent of overlap and behavior in relation to ships is poorly known. Using novel biologging devices, which detect radar emissions and record the position of boats and seabirds, we measured the true extent of the overlap between seabirds and fishing vessels and generated estimates of the intensity of fishing and distribution of vessels in international waters. During breeding, wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) from the Crozet Islands patrolled an area of over 10 million km² at distances up to 2500 km from the colony. Up to 79.5% of loggers attached to birds detected vessels. The extent of overlap between albatrosses and fisheries has widespread implications for bycatch risk in seabirds and reveals the areas of intense fishing throughout the ocean. We suggest that seabirds equipped with radar detectors are excellent monitors of the presence of vessels in the Southern Ocean and offer a new way to monitor the presence of illegal fisheries and to better understand the impact of fisheries on seabirds.     

Effect of mass fraction of long flame coal on swelling pressure and microstructures of cokes

Long flame coal are abundant and widely distributed in China, but the resource utilization is quite low, the production efficiency is not high. Stamp-charging coke making technology can bend some long flame coal, which can reduce production cost and expand the coking coal resources. The long flame coal of different mass fraction is added into prime coking coal including fat coal from Longhu, 1/3 coking coal from Xinjian and coking coal from Didao in experiment. The swelling pressure is tested on-line detection using pressure sensor in coke making process, and the pores are observed by scanning electron microscopy. The results show that, the swelling pressure first increase and then decrease with the temperature increased and the maximum swelling pressure reduces gradually with mass fraction of the Long flame coal from Shenmu increased in coke making process. The SEM images of resultant coke display that the coke get more and more loose and the amount of pores is increased with mass fraction of the long flame coal from Shenmu increased. The amount pores and the pore diameter both is minimum for coking coal from Didao as prime coking coal under the same fraction of long flame coal.     

XGBoost-LSTM变权组合模型支持下短期PM2.5浓度预测——以上海为例

为进一步提高PM_2.5浓度预测的精度,基于XGBoost和LSTM进行改进得到变权组合模型XGBoost-LSTM（Variable）.过对预测因子进行相关性分析,得到其它大气污染物和气象因素对PM_2.5浓度的影响,确定最优PM_2.5浓度预测因子,再将预处理后数据集输入LSTM模型和XGBoost模型分别进行预测,采用基于残差改进的自适应变权组合方法得到最终预测结果.结果表明,污染物变量的相对重要性高于气象因子变量,其中当前PM_2.5和CO浓度的相对重要性较高,而平均风速和相对湿度重要性较低.XGBoost-LSTM（Variable）模型的RMSE、MAE和MAPE值为1.75、1.12和6.06,优于LSTM、XGBoost、SVR、XGBoost-LSTM（Equal）和XGBoost-LSTM（Residual）模型.分季节预测结果表明,XGBoost-LSTM（Variable）模型在春季预测精度最好,而夏季预测精度较差.模型预测精度高的原因在于其不仅考虑了数据的时间序列特征,又兼顾了数据的非线性特征.     

Has the Clean Development Mechanism assisted sustainable development?

One of the dual objectives of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol is to assist host countries in achieving sustainable development. With various CDM indicators for 58 CDM host countries over the period 2005‐2010, this paper empirically assesses whether CDM project development fulfils its sustainable development objective. Using a unique dynamic panel data method based on the long‐differenced model, this research provides convincing evidence that CDM projects contribute to sustainable development in host countries. It sheds light on the role of the CDM in the process of global sustainability with clear policy implications for developing countries and those embracing market instruments.