Fuzzy risk assessment of oil and gas offshore wells

Risk evaluation of offshore wells is a challenging task, given that much of the available data is highly uncertain and vague, and many of the mechanisms are complex and difficult to understand. Consequently, a systematic approach is required to handle both quantitative and qualitative data as well as means to update existing information when new knowledge and data become available. Each Basic Risk Item (BRI) in a hierarchical framework is expressed as a fuzzy number, which is a combination of the likelihood of a failure event and the associated failure consequence. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to estimate weights required for grouping non-commensurate risk sources. Evidential Reasoning (ER) is employed to incorporate new data for updating existing risk estimates. It is envisaged that the proposed approach could serve as a basis for benchmarking acceptable risks in offshore wells.     

城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型

利用模糊集方法建立了城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型。二级模型适用于单一致灾因子的分析。结合文[1]提出的一级模型,即可构成完整的城市自然灾害风险评价体系。     

Fault propagation behavior study and root cause reasoning with dynamic Bayesian network based framework

The Bhopal disaster was a gas leak incident in India, considered the world's worst industrial disaster happened around process facilities. Nowadays the process facilities in petrochemical industries have becoming increasingly large and automatic. There are many risk factors with complex relationships among them. Unfortunately, some operators have poor access to abnormal situation management experience due to the lack of knowledge. However these interdependencies are seldom accounted for in current risk and safety analyses, which also belonged to the main factor causing Bhopal tragedy. Fault propagation behavior of process system is studied in this paper, and a dynamic Bayesian network based framework for root cause reasoning is proposed to deal with abnormal situation. It will help operators to fully understand the relationships among all the risk factors, identify the causes that lead to the abnormal situations, and consider all available safety measures to cope with the situation. Examples from a case study for process facilities are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. It also provides a method to help us do things better in the future and to make sure that another such terrible accident never happens again.     

Integrated resource management systems: Coupling expert systems with data-base management and geographic information systems

Decision making in natural resource management is becoming increasingly information-intensive because of the rising public concerns about resource conservation and environmental quality. The volume of information that must be analyzed and the complexity of the decision-making process demands that computerized systems be developed to provide decision support services. An integrated systems approach that couples data-base management, geographic information systems, and expert systems is needed. We refer to such an approach as integrated resource management automation (IRMA) and describe a prototype system that is currently being tested in the Nicolet National Forest. This type of information system is likely to play an increasingly important role in the management of natural resources in the future.     

地震应急物资需求预测的模糊案例推理技术

地震发生后,及时迅速地应急响应是提升应急救援效率、降低震害损失的重要工作之一,而作为震后灾区应急响应前提和基础的物资需求预测是急需解决的关键问题之一。考虑到震后灾区信息贫乏的特点,引入1种基于模糊案例推理的震后物资需求预测技术。首先,在对已有案例库分析总结的基础上,提取若干影响震后物资需求的地震关键特征属性,通过引入模糊集合的概念,建立地震特征模糊集合;其次,计算新旧案例具体特征属性值对于模糊集的隶属度,为了度量新旧案例之间的相似程度,计算基于新旧案例特征属性权重的修正测度贴近度,贴近度最大者代表新旧案例之间的最佳匹配;最后,使用1个实际案例展示技术的具体应用过程,得到与新案例最近似的已有参考案例,为灾后应急救援提供借鉴。     

城市轨道交通运营安全事故多圈层匹配创新研究*

为了实现城市轨道交通运营安全事故管理经验的有效重用,运用主题爬虫技术和Access数据库构建城市轨道交通运营安全事故案例库;细分事故文本数据,提取案例关键特征属性,形成相似案例匹配基础;针对案例推理技术在实践应用中存在的不足,创新提出多圈层相似案例匹配策略,并用实例进行验证。研究结果表明:多圈层相似案例匹配策略在城市轨道交通运营安全事故检索应用中具有可行性和高效性。研究结果可对实现事故管理经验重用提供有效借鉴。     

Boomerangs versus Javelins: How Polarization Constrains Communication on Climate Change

Political communicators work under the assumption that information provision, such as framing, may influence audiences and elicit some desired attitudinal or behavioral shift. However, some political issues, such as climate change, have become polarized along party lines, with partisans seemingly impervious to disconfirming information. On these highly polarized issues, can framing sway partisans to moderate their positions, or are partisans so motivated in their issue stances that framing fails? Using a variety of vignettes, and Republican climate change skepticism as a case, this article reports an experiment of how partisans respond to counter-attitudinal framing on a sharply polarized issue. Results indicate that Republicans are resistant to frames that encourage support of governmental action or personal engagement against climate change. There is strong evidence of motivated skepticism, given widespread backfire (or ‘boomerang’) effects and decreased attitudinal ambivalence following exposure to framing, suggesting that issue polarization may severely constrain attempts at communication.     

城市自然灾害综合风险评估问题研究

考虑到城市自然灾害综合风险评估过程的繁琐,提出一种基于事例推理(case-based reason ing,CBR)思想的风险评估方法。从风险所具有和所代表的不确定性入手,将城市灾害综合风险看作是基于危险性和易损性的不确定系统,先基于集对理论做先前事例的风险评估,得出风险值后,形成案例库,再利用可变模糊聚类方法做关于综合风险评估结果的CBR前期处理,形成有利于快速检索的事例样本结构,并在CBR循环过程中通过融入或修正新案例形成新的事例样本,如此往复,不断补充、扩容事例数量和多样性,达到简化风险评估过程和准确化风险评估结果的目的。通过某地区风险评估实例,证明了该方法的有效性。