污水分析方法监测城市毒品滥用长期趋势

毒品滥用问题是全球广泛关注的社会问题,对城市毒品滥用情况进行长期监测具有重要意义.采用污水流行病学的方法,对大连市毒品的滥用情况进行连续长期调查.2020～2021年采集大连市22个污水处理厂的进口污水,通过气相色谱衍生化方法分析测定甲基苯丙胺、海洛因、氯胺酮、摇头丸和可卡因的生物标志物的浓度,即其尿液代谢产物甲基苯丙胺、吗啡、氯胺酮、摇头丸和苯甲酰芽子碱.结果表明,2020年p(甲基苯丙胺)、p(吗啡)和p(氯胺酮)均值分别为23.69、23.21和2.40 ng·L-1;2021年均值分别为20.64、20.92和0.47 ng·L-1,在所有的污水样品中均未检测出摇头丸和苯甲酰芽子碱,根据相关信息估算5种毒品的人均滥用量,并结合往年监测数据分析大连市这5种毒品的滥用趋势.甲基苯丙胺和海洛因滥用量均在2019年有上升趋势,2020大幅度下降,2021年基本保持不变;氯胺酮的滥用则一直处于较低水平.本研究为大连市实时监控毒品滥用情况提供科学依据,对防治毒品犯罪具有重要意义.     

汉江流域1951~2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析

利用Mann Kendall检验方法和空间插值方法，分析了1951~2003年汉江流域年和春、夏、秋、冬四季降水和气温变化趋势的时空分布，并重点分析了丹江口水库上游年降水、年平均气温和北半球气温的变化趋势及相互间的联系。分析发现，在显著性水平α=0.1上，近50年来汉江流域大部分地区降水没有明显的变化趋势，气温呈上升趋势。丹江口水库上游降水在1991年发生突变，从20世纪80年代多雨期进入90年代少雨期，80年代平均降水比1951~2003年多年平均降水多9.7%，90年代平均降水比多年平均降水少11.6%；上游平均气温90年代比多年平均气温高0.2℃，而同期北半球的平均气温也比多年平均高了0.3℃，上游气温同北半球气温同步上升，而上游降水变化受北半球气温升高的影响不断减少，两者之间存在反相关系。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对汉江流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为南水北调中线工程的顺利实施提供科学依据。     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅲ.次生林数量动态与经营的生态经济对策

本文通过种群自我调节的规律以及Leslie模型进行数量动态分析,从而提出了次生林数量动态与经营的生态经济对策。     

中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅱ.次生林的演替规律

本文研究了湖南省中亚热带次生林的种群动态,建立了静态生命表、存活曲线、结构模型以及材积或生物量动态模型,提出了中亚热带次生林的演替基本模式。     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Assessment of Effectiveness of Protection Strategies in Tanzania Based on a Decade of Survey Data for Large Herbivores

Abstract:  Considerable controversy surrounds the effectiveness of strictly protected areas that prohibit consumptive resource use. For Tanzania we compared temporal changes in densities of large herbivores among heavily protected national parks and game reserves, partially protected game-controlled areas, and areas with little or no protection. Comparisons based on surveys conducted in the late 1980s and early 1990s versus the late 1990s and early 2000s showed three consistent patterns across the country. First, significant declines in the densities of large herbivores between these two snapshots in time overwhelmingly outnumbered significant increases in all protection categories. Second, more species fared well (increased significantly or showed no significant change) in strictly protected national parks than in areas with partial or no protection and in heavily protected game reserves relative to areas with no protection. Third, significantly more species fared poorly (densities declined or were too low to detect a decline) than fared well in areas with partial or no protection. Our results show that although heavy protection was generally more effective in maintaining large herbivore populations than partial or no protection, continued long-term monitoring is needed in Tanzania to inform managers whether large herbivores are experiencing declining population trends even within heavily protected areas .     

Trends and sources of particulate matter in the Superstition Wilderness using air trajectory and aerosol cluster analysis

Ambient aerosols adversely affect human health and visibility and impact climate. Identification of sources of particulate matter and its precursors is necessary for developing control strategies. The goal of this research is to utilize long-term speciated particulate matter data and back-trajectory cluster analyses to determine trends and sources of particulate matter in the Superstition Wilderness, a rural area east of Phoenix, Arizona. Twenty-four hour back-trajectories were calculated for every hour of every 24-h particulate matter sample obtained by IMPROVE from 1991 to 2004. Days that included back-trajectories with considerable spatial variance were excluded from further analyses. To minimize uncertainties inherent in single trajectories, all calculated trajectories for each sampling day were averaged to represent the air mass sampled during that day. Cluster analysis of trajectories identified four unique regions, including a region with Phoenix, a region with copper smelters, and one with coal-fired power plants. Yearly averages of sulfate, nitrate, soil, and carbon concentrations were calculated for each region. Statistically significant trends in species concentrations by region and independent of region and differences in concentrations between regions were examined.Sulfate concentrations from the region with smelters were higher than other regions but decreased during the study period. Emissions data from the smelters indicate that much of the sulfate from the region was due to the smelters. The overall 2.2% year⁻¹ decrease in sulfate concentrations at TNM is likely due to decreased emissions from the copper smelters. A 3.6% year⁻¹ increase in nitrate concentrations was driven largely by increasing NO_x concentrations from Phoenix and to a lesser extent the region southwest of the site which includes Tucson and suburban/urban areas between Phoenix and Tucson. Soil concentrations were higher from regions with deserts than the region without desert. This method could not identify trends or source regions of carbonaceous aerosols at this site.     

Concentrations and trends of benzene in ambient air over New York State during 1990–2003

Since 1990s, a systematic program to measure air toxics has been active in New York State with monitors located both in urban and rural areas. In this study we examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of benzene, a known human carcinogen that is emitted by many source categories. The analysis indicates that ambient concentration levels of benzene have decreased by as much as 60% over this period not only in the ozone non-attainment area of New York City that had the reformulated gas (RFG) requirements, but also over the rest of the state as well. Although the rate of decrease appears to have flattened out in recent years, the annual average concentration levels are found to be above the health risk threshold even at the remote location, Whiteface Mountain, suggesting the need for further reductions in benzene emissions.     

污水生物脱氮除磷工艺的现状与发展

阐述了污水生物脱氮除磷的机理,并按空间和时间顺序介绍了一些经典的脱氮除磷工艺,对其发展趋势作了展望。通过对除磷机理及工艺的介绍和分析,提出应加深对生物除磷机理的研究,从微生物的角度进行工艺调控。