突发事件区域应急联动影响因素的实证研究

在界定突发事件区域应急联动内涵的基础上,采用Delphi法,识别出突发事件区域应急联动的9个主要影响因素,即应急联动组织机构、应急联动法律法规、应急物资协同调配、应急队伍协同调配、应急预案动态协同、应急信息实时沟通、区域地理位置、区域灾害特征和区域合作基础。同时,运用ISM技术,确定区域应急联动9个影响因素的关联性,计算和分解可达性矩阵,绘制4级递阶有向图,得出区域应急联动影响因素的内在层次性,即划分出"基础层"、"过渡层"和"直接层",为有效构建突发事件区域应急联动机制提供了理论支持与科学依据。     

Influence of particle size on the aggregation behavior of nanoparticles: Role of structural hydration layer

More and more attention has been paid to the aggregation behavior of nanoparticles, but little research has been done on the effect of particle size. Therefore, this study systematically evaluated the aggregation behavior of nano-silica particles with diameter 130–480 nm at different initial particle concentration, pH, ionic strength, and ionic valence of electrolytes. The modified Smoluchowski theory failed to describe the aggregation kinetics for nano-silica particles with diameters less than 190 nm. Besides, ionic strength, cation species and pH all affected fast aggregation rate coefficients of 130 nm nanoparticles. Through incorporating structural hydration force into the modified Smoluchowski theory, it is found that the reason for all the anomalous aggregation behavior was the different structural hydration layer thickness of nanoparticles with various sizes. The thickness decreased with increasing of particle size, and remained basically unchanged for particles larger than 190 nm. Only when the distance at primary minimum was twice the thickness of structural hydration layer, the structural hydration force dominated, leading to the higher stability of nanoparticles. This study clearly clarified the unique aggregation mechanism of nanoparticles with smaller size, which provided reference for predicting transport and fate of nanoparticles and could help facilitate the evaluation of their environment risks.     

A provider-based water planning and management model--WaterSim 4.0--for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Uncertainty in future water supplies for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (Phoenix) are exacerbated by the near certainty of increased, future water demands; water demand may increase eightfold or more by 2030 for some communities. We developed a provider-based water management and planning model for Phoenix termed WaterSim 4.0. The model combines a FORTRAN library with Microsoft C# to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of current and projected future water supply and demand as influenced by population demographics, climatic uncertainty, and groundwater availability. This paper describes model development and rationale. Water providers receive surface water, groundwater, or both depending on their portfolio. Runoff from two riverine systems supplies surface water to Phoenix while three alluvial layers that underlie the area provide groundwater. Water demand was estimated using two approaches. One approach used residential density, population projections, water duties, and acreage. A second approach used per capita water consumption and separate population growth estimates. Simulated estimates of initial groundwater for each provider were obtained as outputs from the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Salt River Valley groundwater flow model (GFM). We compared simulated estimates of water storage with empirical estimates for modeled reservoirs as a test of model performance. In simulations we modified runoff by 80%-110% of the historical estimates, in 5% intervals, to examine provider-specific responses to altered surface water availability for 33 large water providers over a 25-year period (2010-2035). Two metrics were used to differentiate their response: (1) we examined groundwater reliance (GWR; that proportion of a providers' portfolio dependent upon groundwater) from the runoff sensitivity analysis, and (2) we used 100% of the historical runoff simulations to examine the cumulative groundwater withdrawals for each provider. Four groups of water providers were identified, and discussed. Water portfolios most reliant on Colorado River water may be most sensitive to potential reductions in surface water supplies. Groundwater depletions were greatest for communities who were either 100% dependent upon groundwater (urban periphery), or nearly so, coupled with high water demand projections. On-going model development includes linking WaterSim 4.0 to the GFM in order to more precisely model provider-specific estimates of groundwater, and provider-based policy options that will enable "what-if" scenarios to examine policy trade-offs and long-term sustainability of water portfolios.     

故障树可视化分析系统

论述了自行研制设计的可视化故障树分析系统的功能及程序结构与设计原理。该系统由故障树生成、故障树分析计算、文件输出和系统管理 4个模块组成 ,可使故障树生成与分析变得非常直观而简便 ,只需用鼠标在屏幕上绘制出故障树图 ,系统就能自动识别并进行定性与定量分析。     

Modeling the carbon cycle of urban systems

Although more than 80% of carbon dioxide emissions originate in urban areas, the role of human settlements in the biosphere evolution and in global carbon cycling remains largely neglected. Understanding the relationships between the form and pattern of urban development and the carbon cycle is however crucial for estimating future trajectories of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and can facilitate mitigation of climate change. In this paper I review state-of-the-art in modeling of urban carbon cycle. I start with the properties of urban ecosystems from the ecosystem theory point of view. Then I discuss key elements of an urban system and to which degree they are represented in the existing models. In conclusions I highlight necessity of including biophysical as well as human related carbon fluxes in an urban carbon cycle model and necessity of collecting relevant data.     

An application of a modified theory of planned behavior model to investigate adolescents’ job safety knowledge,norms, attitude and intention to enact workplace safety and health skills

Introduction: For many reasons, including a lack of adequate safety training and education, U.S. adolescents experience a higher rate of job-related injury compared to adult workers. Widely used social-psychological theories in public health research and practice, such as the theory of planned behavior, may provide guidance for developing and evaluating school-based interventions to prepare adolescents for workplace hazards and risks. Method: Using a structural equation modeling approach, the current study explores whether a modified theory of planned behavior model provides insight on 1,748 eighth graders’ occupational safety and health (OSH) attitude, subjective norm, self-efficacy and behavioral intention, before and after receiving instruction on a free, national young worker safety and health curriculum. Reliability estimates for the measures were produced and direct and indirect associations between knowledge and other model constructs assessed. Results: Overall, the findings align with the theory of planned behavior. The structural equation model adequately fit the data; most path coefficients are statistically significant and knowledge has indirect effects on behavioral intention. Confirmatory factor analyses suggest that the knowledge, attitude, self-efficacy, and behavioral intention measures each reflect a unique dimension (reliability estimates ≥0.86), while the subjective norm measure did not perform adequately. Conclusion: The findings presented provide support for using behavioral theory (specifically a modified theory of planned behavior) to investigate adolescents’ knowledge, perceptions, and behavioral intention to engage in safe and healthful activities at work, an understanding of which may contribute to reducing the downstream burden of injury on this vulnerable population—the future workforce. Practical application: Health behavior theories, commonly used in the social and behavioral sciences, have utility and provide guidance for developing and evaluating OSH interventions, including those aimed at preventing injuries and promoting the health and safety of adolescent workers in the U.S., who are injured at higher rates than are adults.     

Research on different venting performance between flat and curved bursting panels

There is a noticeable discrepancy in the ability to control reduced explosion overpressure between flat bursting panels and curved bursting panels with the same static activation overpressure. Flat bursting plates were observed to leak at approximately 80% of the static activation overpressure lower than curved bursting plates. A new experimental technique is proposed in our paper. Three different vent areas of flat and curved bursting panels were tested, there was significant difference in structural stiffness between flat bursting panels and curved bursting panels, which is the reason the discrepancy in the ability to control reduced explosion overpressure. The structural stiffness of the flat bursting panels is poorer than that of the other, and a greater deformation of the flat bursting panels occurs under the same load. The membrane stress caused by the explosion overpressure therefore produces a larger value in the flat bursting panels which causes it to open prematurely. Moreover, the smaller the vent area that is, the more significant discrepancy in controlling the reduced explosion overpressure between both bursting panels is. This experimental and theoretical result in our paper provides some useful experience for the method of explosion venting.     

Monitoring a changing Arctic: Recent advancements in the study of sea ice microbial communities

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO₂ exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01658-z.     

Is there a material Kuznets curve for aluminium? evidence from rich countries

The paper tests the material Kuznets Curve (MKC) hypothesis with regard to aluminium consumption for 20 high-income countries over the period 1970 to 2009. The test is based on the suggestion of Narayan and Narayan (2010). Various unit root and cointegration tests are applied. The aluminium and GDP series are found to be integrated of order one and cointegrated. Additionally, the Blundell–Bond system generalized methods-of-moments (GMM) is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) setting. Unidirectional causality running from real per capita GDP to the aluminium intensity is uncovered in both the short-run and long-run. While controlling for structural shocks, the MKC hypothesis is found to hold at individual levels for Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Japan, and United Kingdom as well as for the whole panel. A 1% increase in GDP generates an increase of 0.87% in metal intensity in the short-run and a fall of 0.82% in the long-run for the panel.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.