华北农牧交错带气候生产力时空变化特征——以大同市为例

以华北农牧交错带为切入点,选取晋北长城沿线大同市8个气象站点,利用线性趋势分析、5年滑动、M-K检验以及Thormthwaite模型,分析了近38年来大同市气候变化及其气候生产力的演变特征.结果表明:①近38年大同市气温呈现显著增加趋势,且在1994年发生突变.②降水量呈现不显著的减少趋势.③气候生产力呈现缓慢增加趋势,出现南部高于北部,东西方向上呈现由中心向四周递增.④暖湿气候的气候生产力呈现正距平,最适合作物生长;冷干气候的气候生产力呈现负距平,最不适合作物生长.现阶段气候暖干化趋势显著,因此研究气候变化对气候生产力有重要意义.     

Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification1

Lee, Se‐Yeun, Alan F. Hamlet, Carolyn J. Fitzgerald, and Stephen J. Burges, 2011. Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):81‐92. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00490.x Abstract: Regional climate varies on interannual and decadal time scales that in turn affect annual streamflows, flood risks, and reservoir storage deficits in mid‐summer. However, these variable elements of the climate system are generally not included in water resources operating policies that attempt to preserve a balance between flood risk and other water resources system objectives. A methodology for incorporating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information in designing flood control curves is investigated. An optimization‐simulation procedure is used to develop a set of ENSO‐conditioned flood control rule curves that relate streamflow forecasts to flood control evacuation requirements. ENSO‐conditioned simulated flood risk and storage deficits under current operating policy are used to calibrate a unique objective function for each ENSO classification. Using a case study for the Columbia River Basin, we demonstrate that ENSO‐conditioned flood control curves constructed using the optimization‐simulation procedure consistently reduce storage deficits at a number of interrelated projects without increasing flood risk. For the Columbia Basin, the overall improvements in reservoir operations are relatively modest, and (in isolation) might not motivate a restructuring of flood control operations. However, the technique is widely applicable to a wide range of water resources systems and/or different climate indices.     

Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods1

Waage, Marc D. and Laurna Kaatz, 2011. Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):535‐540. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00547.x Abstract: Climate change is challenging the way water utilities plan for the future. Observed warming and climate model projections now call into question the stability of future water quantity and quality. As water utilities cope with preparing for the large range of possible changes in climate and the resulting impacts on their water systems, many are searching for planning techniques to help them consider multiple possible conditions to better prepare for a different, more uncertain, future. Many utilities need these techniques because they cannot afford to delay significant decisions while waiting for scientific improvements to narrow the range of potential climate change impacts. Several promising methods are being tested in water utility planning and presented here for other water utilities to consider. The methods include traditional scenario planning, classic decision making, robust decision making, real options, and portfolio planning. Unfortunately, for utilities vulnerable to climate change impacts, there is no one‐size‐fits‐all planning solution. Every planning process must be tailored to the needs and capabilities of the individual utility.     

A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes1

Brown, Casey, William Werick, Wendy Leger, and David Fay, 2011. A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):524‐534. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00552.x Abstract: In this paper, we present a risk analysis and management process designed for use in water resources planning and management under climate change. The process incorporates climate information through a method called decision‐scaling, whereby information related to climate projections is tailored for use in a decision‐analytic framework. The climate risk management process begins with the identification of vulnerabilities by asking stakeholders and resource experts what water conditions they could cope with and which would require substantial policy or investment shifts. The identified vulnerabilities and thresholds are formalized with a water resources systems model that relates changes in the physical climate conditions to the performance metrics corresponding to vulnerabilities. The irreducible uncertainty of climate change projections is addressed through a dynamic management plan embedded within an adaptive management process. Implementation of the process is described as applied in the ongoing International Upper Great Lakes Study.     

内蒙古地区近25年植被对气温和降水变化的影响

利用1982—2006年内蒙古地区GIMMS-NDVI和降水量、气温数据,分析了不同植被类型对气温和降水变化趋势的影响。结果表明：近25年来内蒙古地区气温整体上呈上升趋势,降水量呈微弱降低趋势,西部荒漠区呈暖湿化趋势,中东部草原、森林等植被类型区呈暖干化趋势;从不同植被类型NDVI与平均气温和降水量的变化趋势率相关分析表明,NDVI值越低,升温趋势越明显,其中春季和秋季各植被类型间NDVI与季均气温升高趋势率呈显著和较显著的相关,夏、冬季关系不明显;植被NDVI越高,降水量减少趋势越明显。基于栅格的NDVI与气温升高幅度、降水变化趋势相关分析表明,年均气温升高幅度基本随NDVI的增加而降低,其中春、夏和秋季的季均气温升高幅度均随NDVI的增加而显著降低,冬季趋势不明显;而年降水量减小趋势率随植被NDVI的增加而显著增加,其中春季和冬季NDVI变化对降水的变化几乎没有影响;夏季和秋季均表现为随NDVI的增加,降水减小趋势率呈增加趋势。     

气候变化对物种影响研究综述

综述了气候变化对物种的影响,表明气候变化会造成生物物候期的改变,导致物种地理分布的变化,增加物种的灭绝速率。分析了利用模型进行气候变化影响模拟的技术,指出模型的适用性和不确定性。最后,针对中国相关研究的不足,展望了未来开展气候变化影响研究的方向。     

延安地区明代、清代干旱灾害与气候变化对比研究

根据延安地区历史时期旱灾资料,研究了该地区明清旱灾差异和气候的不同。结果表明,延安地区明代(1368-1643年)276年内,共发生旱灾115次,平均每2.4年发生1次;其中轻度旱灾17次,中度旱灾52次,大旱灾34次,特大旱灾12次。清代(1644-1912年)的269年里,共发生旱灾35次,平均7.7年发生1次;其中轻度旱灾6次,中度旱灾25次,大旱灾3次,特大旱灾1次。延安地区明清旱灾差异显著,明代旱灾频次是清代的3.2倍;明代旱灾等级比清代高,前者大旱灾与特大旱灾占旱灾总数的40%,后者的仅占11.6%。明代干旱气候事件频繁,清代干旱气候事件少见。延安地区明代旱灾发生频繁和等级高的原因是当时气候变干和干旱气候事件频繁出现引起的,说明明代是气候较为干旱的时期。延安地区清代旱灾频次低和等级低是当时降水量较多的结果,说明清代是较湿润的时期。明代和清代大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为440mm左右,特大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为360mm左右。     

气候变化对于桥水库总磷与溶解氧的潜在影响分析

对于桥水库1992~2011年20年间的气候要素和水质指标进行数理分析,探求气候变化对该库总磷与溶解氧的潜在影响.首先,根据气温MK突变检验和距平分析,将研究期划分为1992~2001低温低风速年和2002~2011高温高风速年两个时段;其次,在应用上改进非参数回归分析法,图示比较两个时段各要素非线性趋势,获取气候要素在两个时段间的季节性变化规律;最后,通过比较两个时段气候要素对水质指标潜在影响的可能性,利用双k值潜在影响判别法揭示潜在影响规律.结果表明,气候要素在各季节的变化有可能对水库总磷和溶解氧浓度造成潜在影响.通过探讨入库负荷和库总磷浓度的年际变化差异,以及观测高温年、低温年水生植物春季物候和总磷浓度,证实春季气温升高降低了水库总磷浓度.该研究为探究气候变化对于桥水库水质的影响机制和规律提供参考依据.     

城市绿地降温效应研究进展与展望

全球变暖已是不争的事实,而且不可能完全被阻止。城市绿地作为城市结构中的自然生产力主体,在缓解城市热岛、调节城市气候和协助城市应对未来气候变化中扮演着极其重要的角色。如何优化城市绿地空间布局,从而实现城市绿地降温效应的最大化,更有效地应对城市气候变化,已经成为城市绿地布局规划与研究的热点与难点问题。论文从城市绿地降温效应实地观测、城市尺度城市绿地与城市热岛关系、城市绿地降温效应模型模拟和城市绿地降温效应的心理和社会意义4个角度,对国内外相关研究进行了评述,并在此基础上总结了目前城市绿地降温效应研究存在的主要问题,进而提出了该领域未来研究的方向,以期为深入研究城市绿地的降温效应、更好地规划和设计绿地提供重要的借鉴和参考。     

近60 a北方沿海城市人居环境气候舒适性评价——以辽宁省为例

我国北方沿海地区一直被认为是人居环境气候舒适性最佳区域之一。以辽宁沿海城市为例,利用1951-2010年气候资料,在分析区域气候变化特征的背景下,选用人体舒适度评价人居环境气候舒适性,并探讨其影响因素。结果表明:①近60 a来,该地区气候变化基本特征呈明显的升温趋势,降水、风速和相对湿度则为下降趋势,各气象要素在1960-1980年时段分别发生明显的突变;②一年中的4-10月属于感觉舒适状态,其中6-9月为最舒适月份,大连市是辽宁沿海人居环境气候舒适性最好的城市;③气温和风速是影响辽宁沿海城市气候舒适性的主要因素,R/S分析预测表明未来气温将继续升高,降水量和相对湿度及风速将延续现有的减少趋势,人体舒适度指数将继续升高,四季气候舒适性将发生改变。鉴于城市发展、气候变化和人居环境气候舒适性之间的相互作用关系,未来应当积极应对全球气候变化,并减少人类活动对气候的影响。