Generating Synthetic Rainfall on Various Timescales—Daily, Monthly and Yearly

The main objective of this paper is to present a model for generating synthetic rainfall totals on various timescales to be applicable for a variety of uses. Many large-scale ecological and water resource models require daily, monthly and yearly rainfall data as input to the model. As historical data provides only one realisation, synthetic generated rainfall totals are needed to assess the impact of rainfall variability on water resources systems (Srikanthan, In: MODSIM2005, Melbourne, Dec. 2005, pp. 1915–1921, 2005). Thus, our preferred model should simulate rainfall for yearly, monthly and daily periods. We believe that, for water supply issues, no higher resolution is needed, although higher resolution would be useful in models designed to measure the risk of local flooding. The critical factors are daily, monthly and yearly totals and daily, monthly and yearly variation. A model for generating yearly totals will be described using traditional time series methods. This model, along with a similarly constructed daily generation model by Piantadosi et al. (A New Model for Correlated Daily Rainfall, 2008), will be cascaded to start with a synthetic yearly total, then generate a synthetic sequence of monthly totals (through selection from a large number of realisations) that match the yearly total, and subsequently perform a similar operation for sequences of daily totals to match the required monthly totals. We present a new model for the generation of synthetic monthly rainfall data, which we demonstrate for Parafield in Adelaide, South Australia. The rainfall for each month of the year is modelled as a non-negative random variable from a mixed distribution with either a zero outcome or a strictly positive outcome. We use maximum likelihood to find parameters for both the probability of a zero outcome and the gamma distribution that best matches the observed probability density for the strictly positive outcomes. We describe a new model that generates correlated monthly rainfall totals using a diagonal band copula with a single parameter to generate lag-1 correlated random numbers. Our model preserves the marginal monthly distributions and, hence, also preserves the monthly and yearly means. We show that, for Parafield, the correlation between rainfall totals for successive months is not significant, and so, it is reasonable to assume independence. This is, however, not true for daily rainfall. We describe a new model that generates correlated daily rainfall totals using a diagonal band copula with a single parameter to generate lag-1 correlated random numbers. This is an extended version of a paper presented at the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Christchurch, New Zealand, December 2007.     

荆门市近十年大气降雨的变化特征分析

利用荆门市2001—2010年对城区和石化区的降水监测资料,研究分析了荆门市近十年来的大气降水量、pH及电导率的变化情况。结果表明:荆门市近十年来的年均降水量为793.27 mm,降水主要集中在5—8月,年降水量变化较大,基本呈周期性的波动趋势。荆门市城区降水的pH和电导率比较稳定,没有出现酸雨。石化区的降水年平均pH比城区低,年平均电导率比城区高,有酸雨发生,但污染并不严重。     

Analysis of Extreme Summer Rainfall Using Climate Teleconnections and Typhoon Characteristics in South Korea1

Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events.     

Effective Efficiency as a Tool for Sustainable Water Resources Management1

Abstract: The sufficiency and usefulness of Effective Efficiency (EE) as a water resources index is shown through conceptual formulation of a generalized EE and practical applications. Two EE models are proposed: one is based on water quantity and the other on quantity and quality, with the possibility of considering water reuse (recycling) in both. These models were developed for two scales: the first is called Project EE and the second Basin EE. The latter gives the influence of the project on the water resources systems of the basin while the former does not make such connection to the whole basin. Such considerations give proper signals as to the adequacy of any intervention to increase efficiency. A crucial distinction is made between depletion and diversion water savings. Classical Efficiency (CE) models are analyzed and compared with the various EE models. CE results in values that are less than EE because of not considering water reuse and water quality in its calculation. Some authors, pointing to these problems – particularly the first problem – have advocated the use of hydrological “fractions” instead of efficiency concepts. This paper defends the use of a proper efficiency model such as EE and suggests putting an end to the use of the CE indicators. To test the models, they are applied to five cases of irrigation and city water use in the United States and Egypt. The analysis of the results demonstrates all the points mentioned above and the potential of the EE models to adequately describe the water resources efficiency and sustainability at a location.     

饱和砂土排水与不排水剪切特性的比较研究

针对相对密度为30%的福建标准砂,利用土工静力-动力液压-三轴扭转多功能剪切仪,进行了复杂初始固结条件下应力路径变化的应力控制式单调排水与不排水剪切试验。试验过程中,控制平均主应力保持不变,分别探讨在排水与不排水条件下中主应力系数和主应力方向角对饱和砂土剪切特性和强度的影响。通过对比表明:在排水与不排水试验中,与排水条件无关,中主应力系数对归一化的应力—应变关系具有影响,但对体变或孔压的影响并不明显;当其余初始条件相同时,偏应力比随中主应力系数的增大而降低。主应力方向角的影响同样显著,排水试验的主应力方向角不同时,应力—应变关系所表现出的变化规律取决于水平面与竖直面上受到的剪应力作用,相变及峰值偏应力比和内摩擦角与主应力方向角之间存在抛物线型关系。不排水试验的峰值有效偏应力比随着主应力方向角的增大而减小。同时,对于不同的主应力方向,排水条件改变会影响试验得到的抗剪强度指标。     

考虑降雨入渗的非饱和边坡稳定分析

分析了降雨入渗的边坡稳定问题,通过正交实验确定饱和-非饱和渗流计算参数。采用SEEP/W计算饱和-非饱和渗流,利用SLOPE/W模块计算树坪滑坡在降雨入渗情况下的安全系数。     

贵州降雨变化趋势与极值特征分析

利用1961—2004年逐日降雨资料,分析了贵州降雨强度、无雨天数、极值降雨的变化趋势及空间分布特征。利用Mann-Kendall法与反距离权重插值法对贵州近44年降雨时空变化趋势进行了分析。利用Gumbel分布拟合最大日降雨量的概率分布特征,并利用极大似然法进行分布参数估计,推求了极端(50年,百年一遇)降雨情形。结果表明,贵州近44年来汛期有雨日降雨强度、最大日降雨量、连续3日、5日、7日无雨的出现频率呈现明显的上升趋势;最大日降雨总体由南向北减少,连续无雨天气出现频率的增加幅度空间分布总体呈东高西低的趋势。     

轨道尺度下东亚夏季风降水的北方主导演变模态

众多古气候记录的分析表明：轨道尺度气候变化下我国北方地区的季风降水变化显著，该现象的理解对于深入认识东亚夏季风降水的长期演变模态具有重要意义。本文基于瞬变古气候模拟的分析发现：在轨道尺度气候变化下，东亚夏季风降水的变化中心位于季风区北边界附近的半干旱区，是季风环流整体性演变及季风区北边界摆动的综合作用结果。东亚夏季风降水的轨道尺度演变模态与古气候记录的指示相一致，但与当前观测记录给出的以年际尺度变化为主的模态显著不同，说明东亚夏季风降水对气候变化的响应与气候变化的时间尺度有关。进一步的分析表明：轨道尺度气候变化下东亚夏季风北方降水的响应幅度取决于气候变化的驱动因素，其中轨道辐射的影响最为显著。