Does nutritional surveillance have a role to play in early warning of food crisis and in the management of relief operations?*

A major area of investment in data collection in developing countries has been that of nutritional surveillance and monitoring. From recent debate it is clear that there is currently no consensus on the potential role of nutritional status as an early warning indicator. The author presents a synthesis of the broad spectrum of views on the role nutritional surveillance could or should have in early warning. Conceptual problems and technical difficulties are reviewed in the light of recent experiences in Africa and Asia. The author raises a number of issues for future discussion in this ongoing debate.     

突发事件下城市关键基础设施应急策略研究

城市关键基础设施系统由于相互之间存在的各种关联关系而形成了一个相互依存的网络化复杂系统,在突发事件下,一个单一系统功能的失效或部分功能丧失会导致与其相关联的系统产生级联失效现象。针对关键基础设施系统间相互耦合的特性,建立了突发事件下多层系统之间的供需关系网络数学模型,提出当某单一系统的节点失效后,通过分析事故链,利用与之耦合系统的供需关联关系,进行紧急状态下的备用资源调度应急策略。研究表明,基于城市关键基础设施系统之间的供需关联关系来进行资源调度的应急决策能够有效地突破传统方法中以调用备用资源为主的单系统内部优化应急策略的局限性,更有效地优化整个网络资源以降低系统总体损失。     

上海市突发环境事件特征及应急监测预警体系模式探讨

在对上海市2000~2009年10年间突发性环境事件进行特征归纳和趋势分析的基础上,从经济、社会发展和城市特征等多角度对其成因进行了解析,提出了上海市环境应急监测预警体系的构建思路和模式。     

电力企业现场指挥官应急指挥能力构成要素分析

为全面提升电力企业现场指挥官应急指挥能力,加强电力企业应急能力建设,本文基于应急指挥理论,采用岗位能力素质模型,探讨现场指挥官应急指挥能力的构成要素。结果表明:电力突发事件现场指挥官应急指挥能力包括自身防护能力、专业基础能力、现场处置能力、交流沟通能力及身心调试能力,且各项能力构成要素之间相互关联,相互促进,共同形成应急指挥能力要素的统一有机体。     

基于突变理论的非常规突发事件下个体行为状态研究

针对非常规突发事件下个体行为状态,考虑物质环境、社会环境和个体属性等因素,建立评价影响个体行为状态的3级指标体系;在分析非常规突发事件下个体行为状态突变特征的基础上,建立非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的尖点突变模型;采用突变级数法对4类非常规突发事件进行实例分析,得到4类突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度。实例表明,不同类型非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度不同;重大自然灾害和公共卫生类型突发事件中个体行为所受影响最大,社会安全事件次之,事故灾难突发事件中最小。     

天然气供气业务风险分析与应急预案设计

天然气市场需求量的大幅度增加与国内天然气供给不足造成的供需不平衡,给天然气供气业务带来了极大的挑战。根据近两年来天然气供应面临的危机,分别对天然气供气产业链的上、中、下游的突发事件风险进行分析;并针对供气业务中断带来的风险,从突发事件分级、应急处置流程等两个关键要素着手对应急预案进行优化。该研究对完善天然气供气突发事件应急预案、有效快速应对突发事件提供了参考和指导。     

Knowledge creation and reliable decision-making in complex emergencies

This paper examines how the creation of knowledge and the location of decision-making authority within relief organisations influence coordination. Information was collected from the headquarters of international non-governmental organisations in 2003, as well as from Darfur and Khartoum, Sudan, in 2005 and 2007, respectively. Relief organisations rely on quality information dissemination between the field and headquarters. Yet, reporting from the field often is overloaded with misplaced precision, making it difficult for managers at headquarters to grasp the key issues. A high turnover rate among international field officers and a lack of inclusion of local staff and partners prevent the development of accumulated knowledge. Furthermore, most relief organisations have a centralised decision-making system. The creation of 'collective-meaning structures', based on reliable information on all decision-making levels, opens the way to the decentralisation of decision-making to field officers engaged with inter-organisational coordination structures. In sum, more efficient and reliable coordination between organisations relies on improved decision-making systems within each organisation.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

Cross-sectional survey methods to assess retrospectively mortality in humanitarian emergencies

Since the rates and causes of mortality are critical indicators of the overall health of a population, it is important to evaluate mortality even where no complete vital statistics reporting exists. Such settings include humanitarian emergencies. Experience in cross-sectional survey methods to assess retrospectively crude, age-specific, and maternal mortality in stable settings has been gained over the past 40 years, and methods appropriate to humanitarian emergencies have been developed. In humanitarian emergencies, crude and age-specific mortality can be gauged using methods based on the enumeration of individuals resident in randomly selected households—frequently referred to as a household census. Under-five mortality can also be assessed through a modified prior birth history method in which a representative sample of reproductive-aged women are questioned about dates of child births and deaths. Maternal mortality can be appraised via the initial identification of maternal deaths in the study population and a subsequent investigation to determine the cause of each death.     

入境旅游突发事件的应急管理问题及对策

为保障我国入境旅游事业稳步发展,需要加强对入境旅游突发事件的应急管理。本文以典型案例分析为基础,在国内旅游安全环境仍然严峻、入境游客的旅游形式发生很大改变的背景下,揭示入境旅游突发事件应急管理中存在的问题,主要表现为4个方面,即:旅游部门牵总协调缺位,旅游监管信息不畅通;旅游业经营者应急准备不足;涉外突发事件信息公开尺度难以把握;语言不通顽疾仍然存在。在此基础上进一步探讨相应的解决对策,认为应当构建旅游行政部门牵头的入境旅游全环节应急管理体系,补足旅游景区涉外事件先期处置能力,综合研判次生衍生风险,加强网络舆情引导,充分利用大数据技术填补散客信息空白。