Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population‐level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input‐parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input‐parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea‐level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions.     

长江（万州段）水体溶解性有机物的荧光光谱分析

按照河床形态、水文条件、排污口分布、支流状况等特点从长江万州段及长江支流苎溪河选取8个断面进行采样，对水样中溶解性有机物（DOM）的荧光光谱特征进行了分析和研究。利用日立F 4500荧光分光光度计对长江水、普通自来水和纯水在紫外光激励下产生的荧光光谱及其特性进行了比较研究。同时，研究了不同水样、不同取样点的水体DOM的荧光特性和三维荧光光谱图。结果表明：长江水在波长290 nm左右的紫外光激励下能产生较强的荧光。荧光峰是350~550 nm 范围的宽谱峰，荧光峰值波长在450 nm左右。但是不同取样点水样的荧光峰强度明显有差异，在4号、5号、2号取样点的水样荧光强度明显高于其他取样点，这与采样点附近污染源排放有明显的关系。该研究方法可作为鉴别水质污染的一种有效的手段.     

Chlorpyrifos degradation in a biomixture of biobed at different maturity stages

The biomixture is a principal element controlling the degradation efficacy of the biobed. The maturity of the biomixture used in the biobed affects its overall performance of the biobed, but this is not well studied yet. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of using a typical composition of Swedish biomixture at different maturity stages on the degradation of chlorpyrifos. Tests were made using biomixture at three maturity stages: 0 d (BC0), 15 d (BC15) and 30 d (BC30); chlorpyrifos was added to the biobeds at final concentration of 200, 320 and 480 mg kg⁻¹. Chlorpyrifos degradation in the biomixture was monitored over time. Formation of TCP (3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyrinidol) was also quantified, and hydrolytic and phenoloxidase activities measured. The biomixture efficiently degraded chlorpyrifos (degradation efficiency >50%) in all the evaluated maturity stages. However, chlorpyrifos degradation decreased with increasing concentrations of the pesticide. TCP formation occurred in all biomixtures, but a major accumulation was observed in BC30. Significant differences were found in both phenoloxidase and hydrolytic activities in the three maturity stages of biomixture evaluated. Also, these two biological activities were affected by the increase in pesticide concentration. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that chlorpyrifos can be degraded efficiently in all the evaluated maturity stages.     

Discussion on the Regional Division of the Development Stage of China's Wind Power

This paper constructs the index system of the regional division of the development stage of China's wind power resourc-es, including the index of energy, the index of wind energy endow-ments and other indices. Based on principal component analysis and layered clustering analysis of these indices, and combined with the conceptual function of the development and utilization stage of the wind power, this paper divides the development and utilization stage of the wind power into four stages taking province as the basic yardstick: optimization growth stage, the rapid growth stage,the slow growth stage and the initial growth stage. In addition, this paper briefly discusses the basic strategy that should be adopted in each development stage of wind power resources.     

移动脚手架升降作业的FMECA分析

利用FMECA(故障模式,影响及危险度分析)方法回顾了升降作业的典型事故,阐述了架体结构和升降作业流程,对移动脚手架升降作业进行了故障类型、影响及危险度分析,认为保障移动脚手架升降施工作业安全的重点是:保证防坠装置的有效可靠性、维护防护装置的功能完整性、确保提升机构和架体结构的整体稳定性。     

某人工湖成库初期水环境特征研究

通过对某新建人工湖水温、DO、SD、pH、TN、TP、CODMn、Chla、藻类和水动力条件10项环境因素的特征、趋势分析,研究人工湖成库初期水环境特征。实验结果表明,成库初期,TN、TP等营养盐处于累积高峰期,通过计算N/P比和相关性分析,磷为藻类生长时期的限制性因子;人工湖基本处于准静止状态(流速小于0.1 m/s),为藻类生长提供有利条件;人工湖藻类种类和密度随时间而变动,出现高峰值,在调查阶段主要藻种为蓝、绿藻;叶绿素a含量一直处于较高水平,并分别与TP、SD、pH、DO之间存在显著的相关性。     

Effects of estrone on the early life stages and expression of vitellogenin and estrogen receptor genes of Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes)

The fertilized eggs of Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) were exposed to estrone (E1) at 5–5000 ng L⁻¹ for 15 d, and the hatched fry were exposed continuously to the same concentrations for the additional 15 d. Adverse effects on hatchability, time to hatching, and gross abnormalities occurred at 50 ng L⁻¹ or above. Then the fry were divided into a continual exposure group, and a water recovery group. When the fry were exposed to E1 for another 60 d, there was a decrease in the hepatosomatic index (HSI) of males and the influence disappeared in the water recovery group. The gonadosonatic index (GSI) of females at 500 ng L⁻¹ decreased significantly in another 60 d exposure. While the fry were maintained in dechlorinated tap water for 60 d, a significant decrease in female GSI was observed at 50 ng L⁻¹ or above. An increased GSI was found in males in both continual exposure and water recovery groups at all E1 treatments. Quantitative RT-PCR showed that vitellogenin-I (Vtg-I) gene expressions in the female liver were significantly down-regulated at 50 ng L⁻¹ in the continual exposure group, and at 500 ng L⁻¹ in the water recovery group, while male Vtg-I genes were significantly up-regulated for all E1 treatments. In addition, all E1 treatments caused sex reversal of males. These results suggest that E1 at 5 ng L⁻¹ or above have unrecoverable impacts on the gonadal growth and development of medaka, even if only early life stages were exposed to E1.     

海水淡化技术及其应用

海水淡化技术是指利用海水脱盐生产淡水的技术过程。目前，海水淡化技术已是解决全球淡水资源危机的重要途径之一。介绍了几种海水淡化方法，对多级闪蒸、低温多效和反渗透三种海水淡化技术的原理、工艺、优缺点及其应用实例行了详细的阐述和比较。     

常压下煤对N2/CO2/CH4单组分气体吸附特性研究

为了研究常压不同条件下煤样对N2/CO2/CH4单组分气体的吸附特性,以Langumir单分子层吸附模型为依据,对其吸附阶段进行划分,选择长焰煤、气肥煤和无烟煤分别进行了单组分气体吸附试验,探讨不同试验条件对煤吸附量的影响。结果表明:在常压阶段,煤对单组分气体的吸附规律服从Langumir单分子层吸附模型的第一阶段,吸附量与压力正相关;煤的变质程度、吸附温度及压力和吸附气体的种类是影响吸附量的主要因素,并在不同情况下对煤吸附量的影响程度不同;高低变质煤样对吸附量的影响大,而中等变质程度的影响小;温度是低压阶段影响吸附量的主要因素;吸附气体种类对吸附量的影响是由于其自身物化性质差异,相同试验条件下煤对3种单组分气体的吸附量从大到小为CO2、CH4、N2。     

1961—2010年新疆生长季节指数时空变化特征及其农业响应

在定义生长季节长度(GSL)、生长季节开始时间(LSF)以及生长季节结束时间(FFF)三个生长季节指数的基础上,采用模糊聚类、稳健回归及Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法分析新疆1961—2010年生长季节指数时空变化特征,并针对作物生长季节指数变化对区域农业生产的影响进行了深入探讨。结果表明:新疆20世纪90年代中期,GSL变化幅度很大,低纬地区生长季节受低温影响较小,而随纬度上升,中高纬地区生长季节受低温影响越大。生长季节长度的变化与秋季低温(生长季节结束时间)变化情况紧密相连,全疆生长季节长度在80%的保证率下,较多年平均生长季节长度缩短5~14 d。生长季节长度的延长,会导致净初级生产力以及年蒸散发总量上升,继而影响水文、生态系统以及生物地球化学过程。