Welch谱估计的随机误差与置信度

目的分析Welch谱估计的随机误差及置信度。方法首先导出Welch谱估计量随机误差的表达式,然后采用正态标准化处理方法,将Welch谱估计分量转化为χ2变量。结果获得了Welch谱估计的置信度分析方法。结论以128自由度的Welch谱估计结果的随机误差(12.5%)作为相对置信区间,则其置信概率为68.4%,若要达到95.5%以上置信概率,则Welch谱估计的自由度不能小于512,相应的随机误差为6.25%。     

基于IAHP和灾变链式方法的城市油气管道风险诱因与预警研究

城市油气管道穿越城区街道、建筑和居民区等特殊地段,保障其安全运行具有重要意义。为实现城市油气管道风险早期预警,基于城市与野外长输油气管道风险对比分析,识别城市油气管道风险预警指标;建立城市油气管道风险预警指标体系,采用区间层次分析法对预警指标重要度进行定量排序,确定关键预警监测点;并依据灾变链式理论,构建城市油气管道重大事故灾变链式模型,研究管道风险演化过程,发现灾变前兆进行断链减灾。研究结果表明:“腐蚀”及“第三方破坏”占据城市油气管道失效致因比重最大,风险因子“油气管道与市政管道距离”以及“城市工程施工作业”应作为城市油气管道重点监测点。同时,围绕城市油气管道风险预警需致力于孕源断链。     

Male genital traits and mating interval affect male fertilization success in the water strider Gerris lacustris

Parker's seminal work brought attention to the possibility of postmating sexual selection by non-random fertilization success. Mechanisms for these processes are still only partly understood and there is clearly a need for more studies of intraspecific variation in sperm precedence. Here, we report results from an experimental study of the variation in fertilization success between males of the water strider Gerris lacustris. Genital morphology, male body size, and copulation duration were examined as possible correlates of paternity. The significance of guarding duration was also analysed. Only male genital morphology was correlated to fertilization success. This is one of the first studies showing a relationship between male genital traits and fertilization success, supporting the view that sexual selection may be responsible for the rapid and divergent evolution of genital structures in animals with internal fertilization. The fertilization success of last males varied considerably after double matings with a short mating interval (10 min). Last-male priority ranged from 0 to 100% and usually one of the males involved fertilized almost all the eggs. After double matings with a short mating interval, the proportion of eggs fertilized by the last male averaged 0.68 and was greater than 0.5. In contrast, the average fertilization success was biased towards the first male when the matings were more spread out over time (24 h). These results do not support earlier suggestions of a widespread last-male sperm priority in water striders. Received: 28 July 1998 / Received in revised form: 15 March 1999 / Accepted: 28 March 1999     

一种连接器振动故障分析

目的 分析得出轴向弹性触碰式连接器内导体失效的主要原因。方法 以某机载电子模块的连接器在功能振动试验后出现的故障为研究对象,对其进行目测检查、随机振动仿真分析和受力分析,定位故障原因,随后结合应力应变关系公式、高斯区间法和Miner累积损伤定律,推导内导体的疲劳寿命计算公式。结果计算得到内导体自身的振动响应应力仅为0.26 MPa,不足以产生疲劳破坏,但在振动激励下,连接器随模块的振动位移较大,超出了连接器的间隙容差范围,致使受压的内导体端面出现较大的往复动摩擦力,而摩擦力引起内导体根部的应力（250.13 MPa）超过了材料的疲劳极限,内导体有疲劳断裂的风险。进一步计算出内导体的振动疲劳寿命为0.67 h,小于功能振动试验时间,证实是振动位移引起的摩擦导致了内导体的疲劳断裂。结论 轴向弹性触碰式连接器必须要重视摩擦力的危害,提高模块的安装刚度,可以有效地提高连接器的可靠性。     

改进的模糊综合评价方法在制造业安全评价中的应用研究

针对制造业车间的安全评价具有多维多层次性和不确定性,运用区间数对模糊综合评价方法进行改进,对其进行综合评价.对于单因素权重、综合评价权重、各指标评分和评价集中评价等级水平均采用区间数,以使评价更符合客观实际.通过实例应用分析,验证了该评价方法的科学性和可行性.     

碳电极直径与负载特性对故障电弧断路器响应时间影响研究*

为解决故障电弧断路器动作响应滞后、效率低等问题，基于电气火灾多发原因与防控实验装置、功率因素可调式负载柜，搭建故障电弧模拟实验台，研究故障电弧断路器响应时间影响因素，利用功率分析仪统计断路器响应时间。研究结果表明:纯电阻电路中，断路器响应时间随碳电极直径增大而缩短；在负载功率P=800,2 000 W条件下，碳电极直径D≥2 mm时,断路器瞬时保护率达100%;负载功率P=3 200 W时,断路器瞬时保护率小于50%；碳电极直径D为1,2 mm时，断路器最佳负载功率保护区间分别为［1 200,1 600］ W,［800,2 400］ W，碳电极直径为2 mm的保护区间范围较宽，安全可靠性更高；感性电路中，断路器响应时间随功率因数减小而延迟，功率因数对断路器动作响应时间的影响随负载功率增加而降低。研究结果可为故障电弧断路器响应时间的设定提供参考。     

基于区间方法的岩质边坡稳定性非概率可靠性分析

在综合分析岩土参数区间性的基础上,通过引入区间分析方法和非概率可靠性思想,建立岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性模型,并针对区间运算结果扩张问题,引入区间截断法和区间优化法,对边坡非概率可靠性指标进行较为精确的求解。然后,以湖北某岩质高边坡为实例,进一步探讨了岩体参数变异性对岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性指标的影响规律。