基于改进DEA交叉效率模型的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价

为了评价洪水灾害区域脆弱性,提出了应用改进DEA交叉效率模型和熵权法相结合的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价方法。首先,在洪灾形成理论的基础上,构建洪灾区域脆弱性指标体系和评价标准;其次,应用改进DEA交叉效率模型计算不同区域的成灾效率,利用熵权法计算权重集结全局成灾效率。根据成灾效率的实际意义分析不同区域脆弱性的相对大小。最后,选取我国各省份洪灾作为实证分析的研究对象。研究结果表明:该方法能够准确评价区域洪灾脆弱性程度,评价结果与实际情况一致,具有较好的适用性。     

土地利用变化中农户脆弱性研究——一个理论分析框架及基于中国中部五省的调研实证

农村土地流转是发生在我国农村的重要社会经济现象,既关系到土地供给的总体结构与变化,也关系到城市化和工业化的进程,更关系到农户的生存状况。论文在分析当前农户脆弱性研究进展的基础上提出了一种土地利用变化中农户脆弱性理论分析框架,该分析框架包括暴露性指数EI、敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI。根据量化后的SI和AI,可以计算出农户的脆弱性指数VI。论文以中国中部经济区5个省份：河南、湖北、湖南、江西和安徽作为案例研究区域,在大规模农户调研的基础上,选取了定量测度敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI的指标体系,运用几何平均数算法对其进行量化,并由此分别计算出各省份农地转入户和转出户的脆弱性指数VI。最后,论文将农户脆弱性指数VI与暴露性指数（流转面积强度EI_A和流转时间强度EI_T）的关系进行了分析。     

Classification of residential areas according to physical vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of Çanakkale,Turkey

The selection of new settlement areas and the construction of safe buildings, as well as rendering built‐up areas safe, are of great importance in mitigating the damage caused by natural disasters. Most cities in Turkey are unprepared for natural hazards. In this paper, Çanakkale, located in a first‐degree seismic zone and sprawled around the Sartçay Delta, is examined in terms of its physical vulnerability to natural hazards. Residential areas are analysed using GIS (geographic information system) and remote‐sensing technologies in relation to selected indicators. Residential areas of the city are divided into zones according to an evaluation of geological characteristics, the built‐up area's features, and urban infrastructure, and four risk zones are determined. The results of the analysis show that the areas of the city suitable for housing are very limited. In addition, the historical centre and the housing areas near Sartçay stream are shown to be most problematic in terms of natural disasters and sustainability.     

生态环境的脆弱性对垃圾不适当处置的响应

垃圾的不适当处置,对生态环境的负面影响是多方面的。在上海、北京和石家庄等地研究表明,垃圾的随意处置,已经造成了许多环境污染问题:垃圾的污染成分包括“三氮”、COD、BOD、重金属离子、有机污染物等,这些污染物在包气带砂性土的侧向迁移距离约15 m,而在地下水中则可达到120 m/a,在地表水中影响距离可达200 多m,在粘性土中的垂向迁移一般在3 m以浅;Cd、Hg、As、F、Pb等有毒离子在垃圾处置场附近高梁粒的综合污染指数可达192-238,超过国家食品卫生标准高达650倍,在西瓜和甜瓜中,这些离子超标少的几倍,高的达100多或1300多倍;垃圾中COD、Cl-、NH4+、NO3-、NO2-等对地表水的单项污染指数高的达100多倍,并在静止的地表水呈现指数函数衰减;对地下水的单项污染指数高的可达340多倍,高出地下水三类标准100多倍,综合污染指数少的60,高的达170。     

生态脆弱性评价在矿区规划环评中的应用研究 ——以阜新矿区为例

以辽宁阜新矿区总体规划环评为例,基于生态环境指数,生态敏感性和景观空间结构等指标构建矿区开发生态脆弱性评价指标体系,运用层次分析和综合指数法评价和划分区域生态脆弱性等级,利用GIS技术并结合法规要求将规划矿区划分为适宜、优化、适度、限制和禁止开采等5类地区.评价结果表明,阜新矿区生态脆弱性整体较高,脆弱度属于4级和5级的区块分别约占规划总面积的51.38%和39.36%,且已建和规划新建煤矿全部处在脆弱性较高的区域范围内,矿区开发与生态保护之间的矛盾突出.     

承压含水层脆弱性影响因素分析及评价模型的构建——以山东省济宁市为例

由于浅层地下水的污染以及承压水的开采,导致受到污染的浅层地下水越流补给深层承压水,增大了承压含水层受到污染的风险,如何评价承压含水层受到污染的可能性是迫切需要解决的问题。论文根据承压含水层受污染的特点将承压含水层脆弱性分为固有脆弱性和扰动脆弱性两个方面,同时根据脆弱性大小具有相对性这一特性,将研究区内承压含水层各脆弱性评价指标归一化,根据信息熵反映实测数据的效用值计算评价指标权重,而后加权求和得到反映脆弱性的综合指数,从而避免了构建脆弱性分级和定额的主观性。以济宁市承压含水层脆弱性评价为例,对评价方法的可靠性进行了分析,通过与数值模拟结果进行对比验证了方法的可靠性。该方法具有概念清晰、操作简便等特点,对无法建立地下水流数值模型和溶质运移模型的地区开展承压含水层脆弱性评价有一定的应用前景。     

The spatial nexus between population growth and land degradation in a dry Mediterranean region: a rapidly changing pattern?

A better understanding of the spatial linkage between the distribution of land vulnerable to degradation and long-term population growth may contribute to sustainable land management of dry regions. Such a nexus has received increasing attention among politicians and local stakeholders, as its complex outcomes depend on mutual interactions between socioeconomic and biophysical factors. This is particularly true in southern Europe, where important processes of land degradation (LD) have been observed in recent years. This paper analyses population growth (1871–2007) in southern Italy and questions its relationship with the level of land vulnerable to degradation. Results indicate that vulnerable lands were more likely associated with areas where population growth has determined environmental pressures on coastal areas and the neighbouring lowlands during 1950–1980. This pattern consolidated the socioeconomic polarisation between core and peripheral areas. Since the 1980s, however, southern Italy has experienced a phase of polycentric development, possibly determining a ‘decoupling’ between population density and land vulnerability to degradation. Population increased in moderately vulnerable areas but decreased in highly vulnerable areas. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

A review of coastal community vulnerabilities toward resilience benefits from disaster reduction measures

The coast has always been an area of significant hazards. In situations of community self-sufficiency, consequences of coastal hazards might be isolated to regions directly affected by the hazard. But, in the current global economy, fewer and fewer communities are isolated; damage to one location frequently has consequences around the globe and coastal community resilience can have broad-reaching benefits. Hazard responses for the built coastal environment have typically been resistance: constructing stronger buildings, enhancing natural barriers or creating artificial barriers. These approaches to hazard reduction through coastal engineering and shoreline defence efforts have been crucial to sustained coastal development. However, as coastal forces continue or magnify and resources become scarcer, resistance alone may be less effective or even unsustainable, and interest in resilience has grown. Resilience is a community's ability either to absorb destructive forces without loss of service or function, or to recover quickly from disasters. Community resilience encompasses multiple elements, ranging from governance to structural design, risk knowledge, prevention, warning systems and recovery. This paper focuses on hazards of coastal communities, and provides a review of some recent engineering efforts to improve the resilience elements of risk knowledge and disaster warnings for coastal disaster reduction.     

Linking the stressors and stressing the linkages: Human—environment vulnerability and brownfield redevelopment in New York City

This paper suggests that the mitigation of one hazard—soil contamination—can unintentionally affect vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities to additional stressors in the local human—environment system through a study of brownfield redevelopment in New York City. This study employs a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) approach to identify components that contribute to vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities in the local community, based on the thematic analysis of 55 interviews with residents from four neighbourhoods with brownfield redevelopment activities in New York City. This analysis of resident observations and perceptions of post-redevelopment hazard conditions indicates how mitigating vulnerability to one urban hazard—soil contamination—has the potential to affect vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities to additional hazards like flooding and air pollution because of the complex linkages among multiple stressors. A causal model of vulnerability to the unintended impacts of brownfield redevelopment is subsequently developed to further demonstrate the interactive linkages among exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to multiple stressors. This study also provides measures that stakeholders can monitor and evaluate over time to track the socio-spatial and environmental implications of brownfield redevelopment and subsequent changes in the local human—environment system.     

中国区域物流系统脆弱性评估研究

为了提升区域物流系统可靠性与可持续发展能力,基于复杂系统理论对区域物流系统脆弱性进行概念界定,构建了区域物流系统脆弱性的概念模型;在分析区域物流系统脆弱性影响因素的基础上,提出了脆弱性评价指标体系及综合评价模型,并对中国大陆地区31个省（直辖市、自治区）区域物流系统脆弱性的空间分异特征进行了研究。研究表明:全国层面的区域物流系统脆弱性两极分化的空间分异特征显著,具有明显的“西高东低”特征;高生态环境脆弱性和高社会脆弱性是区域物流系统脆弱性居高的主要原因;全国的区域物流系统生态环境脆弱性普遍偏高,而东部地区物流系统资源脆弱性最高。