基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

企业安全管理体系标准模式的比较研究

采用对比分析法和实证分析法,对当前国内外流行的企业安全管理体系标准模式及其评价方法进行比较研究,旨在把握诸多标准模式的原则、路径、结构、方法和共性特征及其可以发挥的具体优点,将研究的标准模式的评价方法归纳为两大类即体系认证审核法和综合考评打分法,并对两类评价方法的优缺点进行剖析。体系认证审核法的优点是过程方法、符合性及抽样,考评打分法则提供了安全绩效准则。对吸收融合两类评价方法的优点形成综合性评价方法的途径和方式进行了探讨,为企业建立有效、适用的安全管理体系提供了依据。     

我国消防标准体系分析

为明确我国消防标准体系发展的方向和重点,分别从消防标准的数量、标龄、类型、属性和采标情况等5个方面对我国消防标准体系进行分析,并与国际标准化组织、欧盟标准化委员会和美国的消防标准体系进行了比较。研究结果表明:我国消防标准体系整体适用性在不断增强;需制定周期性标准复审计划;消防基础试验类和管理类标准应成为下一步消防标准制修订的重点;消防强制性标准所占比例有待进一步下调;需建立国际标准动态跟踪机制,同时应注重将我国先进的消防标准转化为国际标准。     

锌精炼铅塔燃烧系统烟气温度模糊控制研究

针对锌精馏铅塔动态过程中的非线性、非最小相位特征、不稳定性、时滞和负荷干扰,基于模糊控制策略下给出了锌精馏铅塔燃烧系统新的控制方法.运用模糊控制系统对锌精馏铅塔的烟气温度进行仿真研究和实时控制结果表明,该研究所设计的模糊控制器能够克服许多干扰因素,产生了良好的控制效果.     

Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

提高转炉OG效率的对策

对武钢第一炼钢厂100t转炉OG系统设备存在的问题进行了分析、研究，结合生产实际进行了一系列的技术改进和工艺参数调整，提高了OG系统效率。     

Towards a planning support system for environmental management and agri-environmental measures--the Colorfields study

The authors present the beginnings of a planning support system (PSS) for agri-environmental measures exemplified by a virtual implementation of Colorfields and blooming strips on model farms, based on real-world data. This paper starts with an introduction to the Colorfields, a concept for transdisciplinary and sustainable landscape design of set-aside land. Colorfields comprise of blooming strips of flowering annual or biennial plants, which are designed and drilled in pattern on fallow land creating Land Art. The temporary scenic arrangements of the Colorfields combine the advantages of ecological strips, e.g. providing habitats for insects (especially bees), improving soil fertility through the cultivation of intercrops, with improvements of the social recognition of farmers as producers of pleasant landscapes instead of monoculture fields.The prototype of the PSS uses two software tools of different scientific origin, the bio-economic modeling system MODAM and the landscape visualization system Lenné3D, which are linked based on geo-data. The resulting system helps to assess the economic effects and visualizes the effects of the specific landuse patterns under different scenarios.The economic assessment of blooming strips on arable land and of one Colorfield on fallow land shows that these measures prove to be profitable from an economic viewpoint assuming the current area payments for the obligatory European Union set-aside program. Furthermore, the visualizations enable the design to be tested virtually by exploring the resultant scenery. They provide artists, planners and stakeholders including farmers with a tool to virtually wander through landscape scenarios supporting a collaborative design and a shared vision for the community.The results of the two model farms and previous case studies for Colorfields demonstrate how current policy conditions could be used for the improvement of environmental and scenic qualities. Furthermore, the ability of the tools, MODAM and Lenné3D, suggests to support and promote these activities.     

中国可持续发展综合评价研究

可持续发展作为一个动态、开放的复杂巨系统。人口、资源、经济、环境和科技构成了其关键要素。本文基于PREEST系统模型。首先提出了一套中国可持续发展综合评价指标体系：同时。借助于主成分分析法和隶属度分析法。就中国1987～2001年度的综合发展指数与协调发展指数进行了实证分析；最后。基于研究成果。对中国未来的可持续发展提出了若干政策建议。