三峡库区非点源氮磷负荷研究

掌握非点源污染形成的机理和变化规律是控制和治理非点源污染的关键。三峡水库非点源污染物来源范围广,每年随上游来水输入库区的非点源污染物成为三峡入库非点源负荷的主要部分。为研究三峡入库非点源污染物负荷变化规律,以SLURP水文模型和输出系数法为基础,建立了长江重庆寸滩断面以上流域的非点源污染负荷模型,模型在模拟计算1996~2002年寸滩断面入库非点源TN年负荷和非点源TP年负荷时,除1998年非点源TP负荷计算误差高于50%外,其它各年非点源TN负荷和TP负荷计算误差基本上小于30%,具有较好的模拟计算效果。该模型的建立和应用将为流域的有关管理部门提供该流域非点源污染控制和治理的决策依据。     

Visitor Proficiency Profiling and Risk Communication at a National Park

While cognitive heuristics may produce successful, efficient outcomes, they can also introduce predictable biases that may be unavoidable even for seasoned experts. This study connects the concept of “professional intuition” to the practice of strategic communication, suggesting that people may rely on heuristics to profile an audience. These judgments, in turn, influence crafting of communication to meet the audiences’ assumed needs, the defining element of an audience-centered approach. Using interview and observational data, this study examines how national park staff use heuristic cues to evaluate visitors during face-to-face interactions. The assessments employees make, in turn, influence whether they encourage or discourage visitors from participating in inherently risky recreational activities. This visitor proficiency profiling, together with the strategic communication strategies employed, extends audience-centered communication to include both informal messages as well as individuals not necessarily trained as risk communicators. Both applied and theoretical implications of this research are considered.     

环境保护年度计划管理工作的探讨

将环境保护计划纳入国民经济和社会发展计划,这在我国尚属首次。本文从法律依据,指导原则、指标体系、编制方法,支持系统等方面,探讨环境保护年度汁划管理中的若干问题。     

废旧锌锰电池回收处理工艺的探讨

由于电池耗费量日益增加,废旧电池导致的环境污染问题倍受关注。通过对废旧电池的调研和处理技术的对比研究,提出了“焙烧—电解”回收处理废旧锌锰电池的工艺技术。在600℃、隔绝空气焙烧3h的试验条件下,“焙烧—电解”工艺不仅可回收大量的二氧化锰、锌、氯化锌、炭棒、铜帽、铁皮、蜡等资源,而且废气、废水、废渣经处理后完全达标排放。阐述了具体的“焙烧—电解”工艺。     

室内空气污染的探讨

据有关部门检测，现在室内空气中挥发性有机化合物达300多种，其中易对人体造成伤害，甚至致癌的就有20多种。研究证实，建筑的装修材料是导致室内空气污染的主要根源。随着我国经济的迅速发展以及人民生活水平的不断提高，室内装修频频出现，装修产生的室内空气污染问题日趋严重。装修产生的室内空气污染，其主要污染物与装修材料有极大的关系。装修一个环保的室内环境，只有选材、建材环保，装修才能环保。 近几年，中国房地产市场不断升温，建材生产的销售量也随之快速增加。于是，各种不合格装修材料充斥市场，许多不具备生产资质的厂商生产的建材产品有害物质超标，严重危害着消费者的人身健康。     

工厂安全性评价指标体系科学性的间接测定方法

工厂安全性评价指标体系是评价工厂安全性工作的测定标准，指标体系的科学性和合理性与工厂安全性评价工作密切相关。工厂安全性评价指标体系科学性的间接测定方法是，采用直接测定结果作为间接测定指标体系的样本，再利用各指标之间的相关量，求出间接测定结果，通过直接评价结果与间接评价结果的比较，检查直接评价结果的准确程度，以分析修正指标体系。     

Risk assessment of rare events

Rare events often result in large impacts and are hard to predict. Risk analysis of such events is a challenging task because there are few directly relevant data to form a basis for probabilistic risk assessment. Due to the scarcity of data, the probability estimation of a rare event often uses precursor data. Precursor-based methods have been widely used in probability estimation of rare events. However, few attempts have been made to estimate consequences of rare events using their precursors. This paper proposes a holistic precursor-based risk assessment framework for rare events. The Hierarchical Bayesian Approach (HBA) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters is applied to probability estimation in the proposed framework. Accident precursor data are utilized from an information theory perspective to seek the most informative precursor upon which the consequence of a rare event is estimated. Combining the estimated probability and consequence gives a reasonable assessment of risk. The assessed risk is updated as new information becomes available to produce a dynamic risk profile. The applicability of the methodology is tested through a case study of an offshore blowout accident. The proposed framework provides a rational way to develop the dynamic risk profile of a rare event for its prevention and control.     

Differences in geometry of pedestrian crashes in daylight and darkness

Introduction

Previous studies have shown that increased risk in darkness is particularly great for pedestrian crashes, suggesting that attempts to improve headlighting should focus on factors that likely influence those crashes. The current analysis was designed to provide information about how details of pedestrian crashes may differ between daylight and darkness. Method: All pedestrian crashes that occurred in daylight or dark conditions in Michigan during 2004 were analyzed in terms of the variables included in the State of Michigan crash database. Additional analysis of the narratives and diagrams in police accident reports was performed for a subset of 400 of those crashes—200 sampled from daylight and 200 sampled from darkness. Results: Several differences were found that appear to be related to the characteristic asymmetry of low-beam headlamps, which (in the United States) distributes more light on the passenger's side than the driver's side of the vehicle. These results provide preliminary quantification of the how the photometric differences between the right and left sides of typical headlamps may affect pedestrian crash risk.

Impact on Industry

The results suggest that efforts to provide supplemental forward vehicle lighting in turns may have safety benefits for pedestrians.     

Copper and cadmium effects on growth and extracellular exudation of the marine toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella: 3D-fluorescence spectroscopy approach

In this study, metal contamination experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of copper and cadmium on the growth of the marine toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella and on the production of dissolved organic matter (Dissolved Organic Carbon: DOC; Fluorescent Dissolved Organic Matter: FDOM). This species was exposed to increasing concentrations of Cu²⁺ (9.93 × 10⁻¹⁰–1.00 × 10⁻⁷ M) or Cd²⁺ (1.30 × 10⁻⁸–4.38 × 10⁻⁷ M), to simulate polluted environments. The drastic effects were observed at pCu²⁺ = 7.96 (Cu²⁺: 1.08 × 10⁻⁸ M) and pCd²⁺ = 7.28 (Cd²⁺: 5.19 × 10⁻⁸ M), where cyst formation occurred. Lower levels of Cu²⁺ (pCu²⁺ > 9.00) and Cd²⁺ (pCd²⁺ > 7.28) had no effect on growth. However, when levels of Cu²⁺ and Cd²⁺ were beyond 10⁻⁷ M, the growth was totally inhibited. The DOC released per cell (DOC/Cell) was different depending on the exposure time and the metal contamination, with higher DOC/Cell values in response to Cu²⁺ and Cd²⁺, comparatively to the control. Samples were also analyzed by 3D-fluorescence spectroscopy, using the Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC) algorithm to characterize the FDOM. The PARAFAC analytical treatment revealed four components (C1, C2, C3 and C4) that could be associated with two contributions: one, related to the biological activity; the other, linked to the decomposition of organic matter. The C1 component combined a tryptophan peak and a characteristic humic substances response, and the C2 component was considered as a tryptophan protein fluorophore. The C3 and C4 components were associated to marine organic matter production.     

丹江口水库对汉江中下游影响的生态学分析

基于黄家港水文站1954～2000年的日径流量资料，以1967年为节点，将47年水文序列划分为节点前的“近自然状态河流”和节点后的“人工干扰状态河流”两种水文情势。采用Richter提出的变动范围法，基于包含32个水文参数的水文改变指标体系，定量评估了黄家港水文站1967年前后水文情势的变化。根据分析，把1967年之前的各个水文参数的第1至第3四分位数间的数值范围设为管理目标。进一步分析了丹江口水库的修建对汉江中下游生态水文的影响。结果表明，1967年以后，丹江口水库的修建对汉江中下游水文情势的影响较为显著：极大地改变了径流的年内分配，使流量过程均化，使极值流量出现日期提前、历时缩短等等。在此基础上，结合汉江中下游河道生态系统的特点，以鱼类为指示生物，初步探讨了上述水文情势的变化对汉江中下游鱼类的生长、繁殖和越冬等带来的影响，并对如何降低不利影响提出了相应的改进措施.