A multi-directional tracer test in the fractured Chalk aquifer of E. Yorkshire, UK

A multi-borehole radial tracer test has been conducted in the confined Chalk aquifer of E. Yorkshire, UK. Three different tracer dyes were injected into three injection boreholes and a central borehole, 25 m from the injection boreholes, was pumped at 330 m(3)/d for 8 days. The breakthrough curves show that initial breakthrough and peak times were fairly similar for all dyes but that recoveries varied markedly from 9 to 57%. The breakthrough curves show a steep rise to a peak and long tail, typical of dual porosity aquifers. The breakthrough curves were simulated using a 1D dual porosity model. Model input parameters were constrained to acceptable ranges determined from estimations of matrix porosity and diffusion coefficient, fracture spacing, initial breakthrough times and bulk transmissivity of the aquifer. The model gave equivalent hydraulic apertures for fractures in the range 363-384 microm, dispersivities of 1 to 5 m and matrix block sizes of 6 to 9 cm. Modelling suggests that matrix block size is the primary controlling parameter for solute transport in the aquifer, particularly for recovery. The observed breakthrough curves suggest results from single injection-borehole tracer tests in the Chalk may give initial breakthrough and peak times reasonably representative of the aquifer but that recovery is highly variable and sensitive to injection and abstraction borehole location. Consideration of aquifer heterogeneity suggests that high recoveries may be indicative of a high flow pathway adjacent, but not necessarily connected, to the injection and abstraction boreholes whereas low recoveries may indicate more distributed flow through many fractures of similar aperture.     

Environmental Control and Limnological Impacts of a Large Recurrent Spring Bloom in Lake Washington,USA

A series of statistical analyses were used to identify temporal and spatial patterns in the phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics of Lake Washington, an mesotrophic lake in Washington State (USA). These analyses were based on fortnightly or monthly samples of water temperature, Secchi transparency, ammonium (NH₄), nitrate (NO₃), inorganic phosphorus (IP), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and chlorophyll a (chl a) collected during 1995–2000 from 12 stations. Lake Washington has a very consistent and pronounced annual spring diatom bloom which occurs from March to May. During this bloom, epilimnetic chl a concentrations peak on average at 10 μg/L, which is 3 times higher than chl a concentrations typically seen during summer stratified conditions. The spring bloom on average comprised 62% diatoms, 21% chlorophytes and 8% cyanobacteria. During summer stratification, diatoms comprised 26% of the phytoplankton community, chlorophytes 37% and cyanobacteria 25%. Cryptophytes comprised approximately 8% of the community throughout the year. Overall, 6 phytoplankton genera (i.e., Aulacoseira, Fragilaria, Cryptomonas, Asterionella, Stephanodiscus, and Ankistrodesmus) cumulatively accounted for over 50% of the community. These analyses also suggest that the phytoplankton community strongly influences the seasonality of NO₃, IP, DO, pH and water clarity. According to a MANOVA, seasonal fluctuations explained 40% of the total variability for the major parameters, spatial heterogeneity explained 10% of variability, and the seasonal-spatial interaction explained 10% of variability. Distinctive patterns were identified between offshore and inshore sampling stations. The results of our analyses also suggest that spatial variability was substantial, but much smaller than temporal variability.     

Is everyone hot in the city? Spatial pattern of land surface temperatures,land cover and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics in Baltimore,MD

Urban heat island effect refers to the phenomenon that ambient air and surface temperatures in urban areas are several degrees higher than surrounding rural areas. Higher temperatures not only impact the comfort of urban dwellers, but also increase energy use, ozone production, and the risk of death for humans in a heat wave. Our research focuses on the variation in land surface temperature in the Gywnns Fall Watershed, Maryland. We found that land surface temperature is highly variable spatially, resulting in "hotspots" within the heat island. We further explore how this temperature variation relates to social factors on the scale of the census-based block group. We show that land surface temperature is statistically higher in block groups that are characterized by low income, high poverty, less education, more ethnic minorities, more elderly people and greater risk of crime. These variables were mapped to evaluate the spatial relationship of land surface temperatures to social factors. This spatially explicit approach facilitates identification of specific areas to prioritize for heat prevention and intervention efforts. We demonstrate, through an exercise, how incorporating data on land surface temperature and social factors into heat intervention strategies could contribute to efficient allocation of limited resources and services. The exercise also indicates where heat prevention efforts, such as tree-planting programs, are most needed to help reduce heat exposure and moderate the urban heat island effect.     

Assessment of temporal stability in risk factors of crashes at horizontal curves on rural two-lane undivided highways

Introduction: Safety of horizontal curves on rural two-lane, two-way undivided roadways is not fully explored. This study investigates factors that impact injury severity of such crashes. Method: To achieve the aim of this paper, issues associated with police-reported crash data such as unobserved heterogeneity and temporal stability need to be accounted for. Hence, a mixed logit model was estimated, while heterogeneity in means and variances is investigated by considering four injury severity outcomes for drivers: severe injury, moderate injury, possible injury, and no injury. Crash data for the period between 2011 and 2016 for crashes that occurred in the state of Oregon was analyzed. Temporal stability in factors determining the injury severity was investigated by identifying three time periods through splitting crash data into 2011–2012, 2013–2014, and 2015–2016. Results: Despite some factors affecting injuries in all specified time periods, the values of the marginal effects showed relative differences. The estimation results revealed that some factors increased the risk of being involved in severe injury crashes, including head-on collisions, drunk drivers, failure to negotiate curves, older drivers, and exceeding the speed limits. Conclusions: The hypothesis that attributes of injury severity are temporally stable is rejected. For example, young drivers (30 years old and younger) and middle-aged drivers were found to be temporally instable over time. Practical applications: The findings could help transportation authorities and safety professionals to enhance the safety of horizontal curves through appropriate and effective countermeasures.     

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modelling in an individual based context—Consequences of parameter variability

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models simulate the time-course of toxicant concentration in the organism and toxicity at the level of the organism. A link between TKTD models that simulate survival and individual based models for populations (IBMs) is proposed which allows TKTD parameters to vary between individuals. The TKTD-IBM predicts different survival in response to toxicants when TKTD parameters vary amongst individuals compared to the survival predicted with fixed TKTD parameters. The model with fixed parameters represents the concept of stochastic death whereas the model with variable parameters behaves, at least partly, according to the individual tolerance distribution concept. The whole set of TKTD parameters of an individual can be interpreted as constituting “individual tolerance”.     

Experiments on vertical transverse mixing in a large-scale heterogeneous model aquifer

Vertical transverse mixing is known to be a controlling factor in natural attenuation of extended biodegradable plumes originating from continuously emitting sources. We perform conservative and reactive tracer tests in a quasi two-dimensional 14 m long sand box in order to quantify vertical mixing in heterogeneous media. The filling mimics natural sediments including a distribution of different hydro-facies, made of different sand mixtures, and micro-structures within the sand lenses. We quantify the concentration distribution of the conservative tracer by the analysis of digital images taken at steady state during the tracer-dye experiment. Heterogeneity causes plume meandering, leading to distorted concentration profiles. Without knowledge about the velocity distribution, it is not possible to determine meaningful vertical dispersion coefficients from the concentration profiles. Using the stream-line pattern resulting from an inverse model of previous experiments in the sand box, we can correct for the plume meandering. The resulting vertical dispersion coefficient is approximately approximately 4 x 10(-)(9) m(2)/s. We observe no distinct increase in the vertical dispersion coefficient with increasing travel distance, indicating that heterogeneity has hardly any impact on vertical transverse mixing. In the reactive tracer test, we continuously inject an alkaline solution over a certain height into the domain that is occupied otherwise by an acidic solution. The outline of the alkaline plume is visualized by adding a pH indicator into both solutions. From the height and length of the reactive plume, we estimate a transverse dispersion coefficient of approximately 3 x 10(-)(9) m(2)/s. Overall, the vertical transverse dispersion coefficients are less than an order of magnitude larger than pore diffusion coefficients and hardly increase due to heterogeneity. Thus, we conclude for the assessment of natural attenuation that reactive plumes might become very large if they are controlled by vertical dispersive mixing.     

The impact of heterogeneity on the distribution of CO2: Numerical simulation of CO2 storage at Ketzin

Numerical modelling of multiphase flow is an essential tool to ensure the viability of long-term and safe CO₂ storage in geological formations. Uncertainties arising from the heterogeneity of the formation and lack of knowledge of formation properties need to be assessed in order to create a model that can reproduce the data available from monitoring. In this study, we investigated the impact of unknown spatial variability in the petrophysical properties within a sandy channel facies of a fluviatile storage formation using stochastic methods in a Monte Carlo approach. The stochastic method has been applied to the Ketzin test site (CO₂SINK), and demonstrates that the deterministic homogeneous model satisfactorily predicts the first CO₂ arrival time at the Ketzin site. The equivalent permeability was adjusted to the injection pressure and is in good agreement with the hydraulic test. It has been shown that with increasing small-scale heterogeneity, the sharpness of the CO₂ front decreases and a greater volume of the reservoir is affected, which is also seen in an increased amount of dissolved CO₂. Increased anisotropy creates fingering effects, which result in higher probabilities for earlier arrival times. Generally, injectivity decreases with increasing heterogeneity.     

The significance of heterogeneity on mass flux from DNAPL source zones: an experimental investigation

Understanding the process of mass transfer from source zones of aquifers contaminated with organic chemicals in the form of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPL) is of importance in site management and remediation. A series of intermediate-scale tank experiments was conducted to examine the influence of aquifer heterogeneity on DNAPL mass transfer contributing to dissolved mass emission from source zone into groundwater under natural flow before and after remediation. A Tetrachloroethylene (PCE) spill was performed into six source zone models of increasing heterogeneity, and both the spatial distribution of the dissolution behavior and the net effluent mass flux were examined. Experimentally created initial PCE entrapment architecture resulting from the PCE migration was largely influenced by the coarser sand lenses and the PCE occupied between 30 and 60% of the model aquifer depth. The presence of DNAPL had no apparent effect on the bulk hydraulic conductivity of the porous media. Up to 71% of PCE mass in each of the tested source zone was removed during a series of surfactant flushes, with associated induced PCE mobilization responsible for increasing vertical DNAPL distributions. Effluent mass flux due to water dissolution was also found to increase progressively due to the increase in NAPL-water contact area even though the PCE mass was reduced. Doubling of local groundwater flow velocities showed negligible rate-limited effects at the scale of these experiments. Thus, mass transfer behavior was directly controlled by the morphology of DNAPL within each source zone. Effluent mass flux values were normalized by the up-gradient DNAPL distributions. For the suite of aquifer heterogeneities and all remedial stages, normalized flux values fell within a narrow band with mean of 0.39 and showed insensitivity to average source zone saturations.     

Biased primary sex ratio in the bushcricket Poecilimon veluchianus,an insect with sex chromosomes

Offspring sex ratio at hatching was examined in the bushcricket Poecilimon veluchianus. Offspring sex ratios varied significantly between females (Fig. 1). Low mortality prior to sex determination established that this heterogeneity was already present in the primary offspring sex ratio. Sperm age and female age had no influence on offspring sex ratio (Fig. 2). Male age at copulation, however, correlated significantly with offspring sex ratio (Fig. 3). There were two types of males: one type produced predominantly daughters when young and an increasing proportion of sons with age. The other type produced, independent of age, 1:1 offspring sex ratios (Fig. 4). The two types of males seem to occur in approximately equal numbers. Sex ratio variation (1) may adaptively compensate for local sex ratio biases caused by sex-specific motility, or (2) it may be adaptive if there is a sex-differential effect of laying date on offspring fitness. Received: 14 March 1996/Accepted after revision: 24 June 1996     

A serendipitous, long-term infiltration experiment: Water and tritium circulation beneath the CAMBRIC trench at the Nevada Test Site

Underground nuclear weapons testing at the Nevada Test Site introduced numerous radionuclides that may be used subsequently to characterize subsurface hydrologic transport processes in arid climates. In 1965, a unique, 16-year pumping experiment designed to examine radionuclide migration away from the CAMBRIC nuclear test, conducted in the saturated zone beneath Frenchman Flat, Nevada, USA, gave rise to an unintended second experiment involving radionuclide infiltration through the vadose zone, as induced by seepage of pumping effluents beneath an unlined discharge trench. The combined experiments have been reanalyzed using a detailed, three-dimensional numerical model of transient, variably saturated flow and mass transport in a heterogeneous subsurface, tailored specifically for large-scale and efficient calculations. Simulations have been used to estimate tritium travel and residence times in various parts of the system for comparison with observations in wells. Model predictions of mass transport were able to clearly demonstrate radionuclide recycling behavior between the trench and pumping well previously suggested by isotopic age dating information; match travel time estimates for radionuclides moving between the trench, the water table, and monitoring and pumping wells; and provide more realistic ways in which to interpret the pumping well elution curves. Collectively, the results illustrate the utility of integrating detailed numerical modeling with diverse observational data in developing more accurate interpretations of contaminant migration processes.