城乡结合部土地利用预警研究

在总结前人对城乡结合部土地利用预警研究工作内容的基础上，依据预警的理论分析了城乡结合部土地利用变化，对其运行机制进行了研究，通过城乡结合部土地利用变化的动态监测，建立了城乡结合部土地利用的预警监控体系，以保证土地政策的实施达到预期效果。     

Land-use induced changes in topsoil organic carbon stock of paddy fields using MODIS and TM/ETM analysis: A case study ofWujiang County, China

Topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) that plays an important role in mitigating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) buildup is greatly affected by human activities.To evaluate the influence of land-use changes on SOC stocks in paddy soils,a new algorithm was developed by integrating MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectral-radiometer) and TM/ETM data for timely monitoring the land-use change in Wujiang County.Thereafter,the land-use class-maps derived from MODIS and TM/ETM analyses were further used to est...     

建国50年海南岛社会经济发展与资源环境变化研究

本文根据建国以来海南岛地区的行政管理体制。政策演变历程。研究了海南岛社会经济发展和资源环境变化之间的关系．通过对社会经济数据和资源环境数据的综合分析。将海南岛社会经济发展和资源环境变化划分为三个不同特点的阶段，并分别阐述了这三个阶段社会经济发展和资源环境变化的不同特点以及社会经济发展对资源环境变化的影响过程。本文对于评价建国50年来海南岛经济发展和资源环境变化、预测未来社会的发展并作出合理的规划具有重要意义。     

Integrated Ecological and Regional Planning in a Rapid-Growth Setting

Toronto is among the fastest-growing urban regions in North America. Regional efforts to preserve rural landscapes and remnant habitat have had variable success. In the 1990s, significant conflict emerged over proposals to build large housing developments on portions of the Oak Ridges Moraine, a 160-km stretch of environmentally sensitive land along the city’s northern edge. After years of planning conflict, Ontario’s provincial government created the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, an Act of the Ontario Legislature. The Plan represents a dramatic change in Ontario’s approach to conservation planning. We examine the development and implementation of the Conservation Plan as an example of environmental planning policy in a complex urban setting. Data from interviews with policy actors, planning agency documents, and geospatial sources are used to construct an analysis and discussion of the Plan and its implementation. From a policy research perspective, the evolution and implementation of the Plan require analysis and monitoring to better understand how such approaches can best be implemented. The Conservation Plan marks a change in policy in Ontario, and the implementation process highlights challenges in putting conservation plans into practice.     

Implementing Participatory Decision Making in Forest Planning

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.     

小流域水环境管理——以宜兴湖滏镇为例

为了进行小流域水环境管理研究,使用SWAT模型对以面源输出为主的宜兴市湖滏流域进行研究.从社会经济发展与水环境的关系出发,耦合土地演化模型和水环境模拟模型并提出管理建议.首先,使用实测数据对SWAT模型进行了验证,确定其有效性;其后,计算了区内污染物输出水平及各污染源的贡献,并依据模拟结果提出了具体管理建议;再后,在GIS技术的支持下,使用马尔科夫链模型对土地覆被的演化进行模拟;最后,耦合两大模型对社会经济发展造成的水环境影响进行研究,预测了可能的污染物输出,并评价社会经济发展的影响.     

黄土丘陵区土壤抗水蚀能力变化的动态评估

以黄土丘陵区典型小流域纸坊沟为研究对象,建立了土壤抗水蚀能力动态评价的指标体系,利用层次分析法对1938～2000年间研究区域的土壤抗水蚀能力进行了动态评估。引入土壤相对抗水蚀能力指标,并采用生态系统健康和承载力相关概念,研究了流域土壤抗水蚀能力偏离理想状态程度的变化情况,分析了其健康状态变化、恢复力和可恢复程度;通过与土地利用结构状态变化过程与恢复特性的比较,揭示了土壤抗水蚀能力对于土地利用结构变化的响应关系,指出了响应曲线中的滞后特点并对其产生的原因进行了分析。研究结果与前人所得的结果吻合较好,说明研究中采用的方法能够有效预测土壤抗水蚀能力,也可为水土保持恢复和管理工作提供科学支持。     

基于RS与GIS的土地沙漠化与土地利用变化时空耦合

土地利用是土地沙漠化发生、发展的重要驱动因子之一.研究土地利用变化及其与土地沙漠化之间的时空关系,是查明土地沙漠化成因机理及发展驱动的重要前提和基础.本文以毛乌素沙地为例,基于TM遥感影像,应用RS与GIS技术,在对20世纪80年代末到90年代末毛乌素沙地土地沙漠化演变与土地利用变化过程反演的基础上,从时空耦合的角度,对毛乌素沙地土地沙漠化演变与土地利用变化之间的关系进行了耦合关联分析,并建立了土地沙漠化转化等级与土地利用变化类型之间的关联关系.研究结果显示毛乌素土地沙漠化与土地利用变化之间具有较强的关联关系,而且这种关联性具有较为明显的区域差异性.     

中国城市建设用地集聚对利用效率的影响:机理、空间效应与分群差异

为探究城市建设用地集聚对城市建设用地利用效率的作用机理,文章基于2003—2017年中国278个地级及以上城市面板数据,通过构建多产出随机前沿生产函数模型测度城市建设用地利用效率,采用时间-空间双固定的空间杜宾模型探讨了不同程度的城市建设用地集聚对利用效率的影响机理与差异。结果表明:(1)从时空特征上来看,样本考察期内中国城市建设用地利用效率总体上呈稳步提升趋势,东部城市建设用地效率最高,西部次之,中部最低。(2)从全国维度的空间计量模型回归结果来看,城市建设用地集聚所带来的规模效应和外溢效应对城市建设用地利用效率具有改进作用,有利于利用效率进一步提升。(3)从不同城市建设用地集聚度分群回归结果来看,高集聚城市(东部发达地区)的直接效应显示随着城市建设用地集聚度的提高,利用效率也不断提高;间接效应中,建设用地集聚度的提高对周边城市的利用效率产生先带动后抑制的"倒U"形作用。低集聚城市(中西部欠发达地区)的直接效应和间接效应均显示,随着城市建设用地集聚的提高,其利用效率存在"先降后升"的"U"形曲线特征。可见,在城市发展的不同阶段,城市建设用地集聚对城市土地利用效率存在差异化影响。因此,中国城市发展应立足当前发展阶段特征,制定差别化的供地政策,促进城市建设用地集聚,针对性地提升区域要素利用效率,支撑经济社会进一步发展。