Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

厦门港和员当湖表层沉积物中的石油烃和多环芳香烃

2002年4月厦门港沿岸设9个站，员当湖设两个站采集表层沉积物，用有机溶剂萃取，硅胶柱色层分离，气相色谱—质谱联机带SIM数据采集系统对样品的石油烃类(M／Z=55)，多环芳香烃类进行分析，结果显示员当湖石油烃和多环芳香烃质量分数分别高达1397和1376．5ng／g。厦门港船只活动，厦门港四周工业废水、车辆燃油滴漏是石油烃和多环芳香烃污染的主要来源。     

The modern theory of biological evolution: an expanded synthesis

In 1858, two naturalists, Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, independently proposed natural selection as the basic mechanism responsible for the origin of new phenotypic variants and, ultimately, new species. A large body of evidence for this hypothesis was published in Darwins Origin of Species one year later, the appearance of which provoked other leading scientists like August Weismann to adopt and amplify Darwins perspective. Weismanns neo-Darwinian theory of evolution was further elaborated, most notably in a series of books by Theodosius Dobzhansky, Ernst Mayr, Julian Huxley and others. In this article we first summarize the history of life on Earth and provide recent evidence demonstrating that Darwins dilemma (the apparent missing Precambrian record of life) has been resolved. Next, the historical development and structure of the modern synthesis is described within the context of the following topics: paleobiology and rates of evolution, mass extinctions and species selection, macroevolution and punctuated equilibrium, sexual reproduction and recombination, sexual selection and altruism, endosymbiosis and eukaryotic cell evolution, evolutionary developmental biology, phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic inheritance and molecular evolution, experimental bacterial evolution, and computer simulations (in silico evolution of digital organisms). In addition, we discuss the expansion of the modern synthesis, embracing all branches of scientific disciplines. It is concluded that the basic tenets of the synthetic theory have survived, but in modified form. These sub-theories require continued elaboration, particularly in light of molecular biology, to answer open-ended questions concerning the mechanisms of evolution in all five kingdoms of life.Dedicated to Prof. Dr. Dr. hc mult. Ernst Mayr on the occasion of his 100th birthdayThis revised version was published online in March 2004, with corrections to the caption of Figure 6.     

肯尼亚米达河红树林森林恢复状况:一个受损害的还是有保障的未来?

本文研究了米达河(南纬3°20',东经40°00')两个红树林森林地区(乌永博和基雷普维)带状横断面的红树林植被的结构和恢复型式.     

Overestimates of black carbon in soils and sediments

Several recent reports suggest that black carbon (BC), which broadly encompasses charcoal, soot, and other forms of pyrogenic carbon, may constitute a significant proportion of the refractory carbon in soil and sedimentary organic matter. BC is a sink for biospheric and atmospheric carbon dioxide, and is intimately tied to the biogeochemical cycling of both carbon and oxygen through its role in organic matter cycling. Additionally, BC may represent a large fraction of the missing carbon sink in global carbon accounting. Here, we demonstrate that documented measurements of BC may be the result of methodological artifacts, which inadvertently overestimate the amount of BC. We found that a widely used thermal oxidative method can create a residue that falls under the operational definition of BC in samples that are relatively BC-free. Moreover, during this procedure, labile organic matter constituents are condensed into pyrogenic carbon, implying that the labile components are present in lesser quantities. These methodological deficiencies are promoting overestimates in the amount of refractory carbon in soil and sedimentary organic matter and may endorse inaccuracies in the rates of carbon fluxes, the mean residence times of terrestrial carbon, and organic matter burial rates in oceanic environments.     

The effect of octopamine on behavioral responses of free-foraging bumblebees to a change in food source profitability

The invertebrate neuromodulator octopamine is known to be involved in bees' associative learning, enhancing the responsiveness of a bee to a conditioned stimulus. In this study, we tested the effect of octopamine on the choice behavior of free-flying bumblebees using a two-phase experiment in an array of artificial flowers. During the first phase of the experiment, the bee was allowed to collect octopamine-laden sugar water from two types of equally rewarding flowers (yellow versus blue). In the second phase, one type of flower was set to be unrewarding. The behavior of the bee (proportion of visits to the unrewarding flowers) over the two phases was fitted to a sigmoid regression model. Our results show that octopamine had no significant effect on the bees' equilibrium choice or on the overall rate of the behavioral change in response to the change in reward. Rather, octopamine significantly affected the time interval between the change in reward status and the initiation of behavioral change in the bee.     

The Value Of Public Participation During a Hazard,Impact, Risk And Vulnerability (HIRV) Analysis

The first part of this paper discusses the links between hazard, risk and vulnerability (HRV) analysis and the development of mitigative strategies. The second part discusses the need to include public participation when completing an HRV analysis. Two current HRV models are used to illustrate the general failure of HRV analysis to include public participation. The third part of this paper provides a brief overview of the Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability (HIRV) model and its use of public participation. The paper concludes by offering a synopsis of a case study in the town and regional area surrounding Barriere, British Columbia, Canada. This case study demonstrates a positive outcome when public participation is incorporated into an HIRV analysis.     

The in utero diagnosis and management of alloimmune thrombocytopenia

A case is presented in which percutaneous umbilical sampling (PUBS) was utilized in the second and third trimesters for the diagnosis and management of a pregnancy at risk for neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (NAIT).     

活性氮和世界:200年的变化

本文通过将19世纪后期和20世纪后期的氮流动情况进行对比,分析了食物和能源生产对全球氮循环的影响.我们虽然对人类产生的活性氮的数量及其释放到环境所产生的主要影响有了充分的认识,但是,我们对于环境库中氮的累积速度缺乏了解,由于积累在环境中的氮具有阶式效应,因此,对其在环境中的积累尚有不明之处.未来活性氮的产生、分布状况及其形成速度增加的可能性(尤其是在亚洲)存在巨大的区域性差异,因而需要制定"总活性氮措施",以优化食物和能源生产,保护环境系统.