Fires in tropical forests – what is really the problem? lessons from Indonesia

Fires have attracted interest and generated alarm since the early 1980s. This concern has been particularly evident in tropical forests of Southeast Asia and the Amazon, but disastrous fires in recent summers in Australia, Europe, and the United States have drawn worldwide attention. Concern about forest fires, and related air pollution and biodiversity impacts, led international organisations and northern countries – such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Union, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the United Nations Environment Programme, the World Bank, and the government of Germany – to undertake fire assessments and provide technical assistance. Nongovernmental organisations, such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources and World Wide Fund for Nature, have also devoted increased attention to fires. Aiming at prevention of future fires, 40 fire projects and missions costing well over US$30 million have worked in Indonesia over the last 20 years. Despite the money and effort spent on them, fires continue to burn every year. It may appear to some that efforts to address the ‘fire problem’ have not been effective as fires still occur. There remains a lack of clarity about ‘fire problems’, which has, at times, led to the adoption of policies that may have negative impacts on livelihoods, the environment, and the economy. Two ‘simple’ changes in the way fires are considered would significantly improve fire-related policies and initiatives.

Using land as a control variable in density-dependent bioeconomic models

The bioeconomic analysis of endangered species without consumptive values can be problematic when analysed with density-dependent models that assume a fixed environment size. Most bioeconomic models use harvest as a control variable, yet when modelling non-harvestable species, frequently the only variable under control of conservationists is the quantity of habitat to be made available. The authors explore the implications of this in a model developed to analyse the potential population recovery of New Zealand’s yellow-eyed penguin. The penguin faces severe competition with man for the terrestrial resources required for breeding and has declined in population to perilously low levels. The model was developed to estimate the land use required for recovery and preservation of the species and to compare the results to current tourism-driven conservation efforts. It is demonstrated that land may serve as a useful control variable in bioeconomic models and that such a model may be useful for determining whether sufficient incentives exist to preserve a species. However, the model may generate less useful results for providing a specific estimate of the optimal allocation of land to such a species.     

Single-species versus multiple-species models: the economic implications

Ecologists frequently note the importance of modelling entire ecosystems rather than individual species, but most bioeconomic models in the current literature focus on a single species. While the mathematical difficulty of modelling multiple species may be substantial, it is important to recognise the implications of the single-species assumption to a model’s results. In this paper, the authors address the economic significance of this assumption through the development of an analytical multiple-species model and demonstrate the importance of ecological interrelationships and economic values to the survival of endangered species.     

Life cycle assessment as a decision support tool for landfill gas-to energy projects

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from MSW landfill, and control methods to eliminate or minimize these impacts including energy recovery from landfill gas (LFG) of MSW landfill in Thailand have been evaluated. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used as the analytical tool to evaluate the environmental consequences of landfilling holistically. The economic implications of the control methods are also briefly assessed. The results show that in terms of GHG emissions as well as in terms of economics, it is more advantageous to have a large centralized landfill and produce electricity from the LFG rather than having several small, localized landfills despite significantly lower transportation requirement for the latter case. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the global warming potential was sensitive to gas collection efficiency as well as methane oxidation rate in the landfill. This study shows the utility of a life cycle approach for evaluating LFG-to-energy (LFGTE) projects.     

Economic cost of mineral supply disruptions: Effects on a small, open economy

The potential impact of short-run disruptions in the minerals market on Israel's small, developed open economy is examined, showing that Israel is potentially capable of a smoother adjustment to external market disturbances. First, the analysis evaluates critical situations within the framework of a normative ‘general equilibrium model’, tracing the impacts of short-run developments in the resources market, and, second, it focuses on specific minerals within a partial equilibrium framework, using economic supply - demand relationships to assess economic damages. The potential damage estimates indicate that significant research and development outlays in the areas of material and process substitution and the capability for a quick build-up of contingent inventories would be justified to prevent the damages which supply disruption might inflict on the economy.     

论防灾工程投资经济效果评价的一般方法

本文根据防灾工程的特点，提出了防灾工程投资、灾害损失和防灾工程投资经济效果，以及投资风险分析的一般方法，从而为防灾工程投资的最优化决策提供依据。