Probabilistic movement model with emigration simulates movements of deer in Nebraska, 1990–2006

Movements of deer can affect population dynamics, spatial redistribution, and transmission and spread of diseases. Our goal was to model the movement of deer in Nebraska in an attempt to predict the potential for spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) into eastern Nebraska. We collared and radio-tracked >600 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Nebraska during 1990–2006. We observed large displacements (>10 km) for both species and sexes of deer, including migrations up to 100 km and dispersals up to 50 km. Average distance traveled between successive daily locations was 166 m for male and 173 for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 427 m for male and 459 for female deer in western Nebraska. Average daily displacement from initial capture point was 10 m for male and 14 m for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 27 m for male and 28 m for female deer in western Nebraska. We used these data on naturally occurring movements to create and test 6 individual-based models of movement for white-tailed deer and mule deer in Nebraska, including models that incorporated sampling from empirical distributions of movement lengths and turn angles (DIST), correlated random walks (CRW), home point fidelity (FOCUS), shifting home point (SHIFT), probabilistic movement acceptance (MOVE), and probabilistic movement with emigration (MOVEwEMI). We created models in sequence in an attempt to account for the shortcomings of the previous model(s). We used the Kolmogrov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test to verify improvement of simulated annual displacement distributions to empirical displacement distributions. The best-fit model (D = 0.07 and 0.08 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively) included a probabilistic movement chance with emigration (MOVEwEMI) and resulted in an optimal daily movement length of 350 m (maximum daily movement length of 2800 m for emigrators) for eastern Nebraska and 370 m (maximum of 2960 m) for western Nebraska. The proportion of deer that moved as emigrators was 0.10 and 0.13 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively. We propose that the observed spread of CWD may be driven by large movements of a small proportion of deer that help to establish a low prevalence of the disease in areas east of the current endemic area. Our movement models will be used in a larger individual-based simulation of movement, survival, and transmission of CWD to help determine future surveillance and management actions.     

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: A comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO₂ concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.     

An ecological framework for contextualizing carnivore–livestock conflict

Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsically an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human–wildlife interactions occur in socioecological systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human–wildlife conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density-mediated effects, behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3 case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied, context-dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore–livestock conflict. Mitigation of human–wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories work within domestic predator–prey systems.     

A novel high-frequency groundwater quality monitoring system

High-frequency, long-term monitoring of water quality has revolutionized the study of surface waters in recent years. However, application of these techniques to groundwater has been limited by the ability to remotely pump and analyze groundwater. This paper describes a novel autonomous groundwater quality monitoring system which samples multiple wells to evaluate temporal changes and identify trends in groundwater chemistry. The system, deployed near Fresno, California, USA, collects and transmits high-frequency data, including water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and nitrate, from supply and monitoring wells, in real-time. The system consists of a water quality sonde and optical nitrate sensor, manifold, submersible three-phase pump, variable frequency drive, data collection platform, solar panels, and rechargeable battery bank. The manifold directs water from three wells to a single set of sensors, thereby reducing setup and operation costs associated with multi-sensor networks. Sampling multiple wells at high frequency for several years provided a means of monitoring the vertical distribution and transport of solutes in the aquifer. Initial results show short period variability of nitrate, specific conductivity, and dissolved oxygen in the shallow aquifer, while the deeper portion of the aquifer remains unchanged—observations that may be missed with traditional discrete sampling approaches. In this aquifer system, nitrate and specific conductance are increasing in the shallow aquifer, while invariant changes in deep groundwater chemistry likely reflect relatively slow groundwater flow. In contrast, systems with high groundwater velocity, such as karst aquifers, have been shown to exhibit higher-frequency groundwater chemistry changes. The stability of the deeper aquifer over the monitoring period was leveraged to develop estimates of measurement system uncertainty, which were typically lower than the manufacturer’s stated specifications, enabling the identification of subtle variability in water chemistry that may have otherwise been missed.     

Are all signals the same? Ontogenetic change in the response to conspecific and heterospecific chemical alarm signals by juvenile green sunfish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepomis cyanellus</Emphasis>)

Within aquatic communities, individuals may gain survival benefits by responding to the chemical alarm signals of heterospecific prey guild members. Piscivorous individuals, however, should be selected to use such chemical signals as foraging cues. A variety of centrarchid species, such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), undergo an ontogenetic change in their response to the chemical alarm cues of heterospecific guild members, switching from antipredator to foraging responses. This ontogenetic shift should occur when potential foraging benefits outweigh any survival advantage gained from an antipredator response. To test this model, we exposed juvenile green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) to the skin extracts of conspecifics, a heterospecific prey guild member (finescale dace, Phoxinus neogeaus) or an allopatric heterospecific (green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri). Juvenile sunfish exhibited a significant positive relationship between standard length and time spent moving and a significant negative relationship between length and time in a spine-erect posture, when exposed to dace skin extract, but not to either swordtail or conspecific skin extracts. Smaller individuals of less than 90 mm standard length (SL) decreased time moving and increased time with spines erect (indicating an antipredator response) while larger individuals (>90 mm SL) increased time moving and decreased time with spines erect (indicating a foraging response), when exposed to dace skin extract. Conversely, juvenile sunfish, regardless of size tested, always exhibited an antipredator response to conspecific skin extract. Sunfish exhibited no change in behaviour in response to swordtail skin extracts. These data further support our model of a threat sensitive trade-off in the response to chemical alarm signals by juvenile centrarchids.     

Limitations of the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure for providing a conservative estimate of landfilled municipal solid waste incineration ash leaching

Limitations of the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) for simulating pollutant leaching from wastes disposed of in full-scale landfills are well understood in the waste management profession; the TCLP solution has a lower pH and greater organic acid content than typical landfill leachate. The TCLP serves its intended regulatory objective, however, as long as a conservative estimate of leaching is provided. Here, we examine TCLP’s ability to represent worst-case leaching conditions for monofilled municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) ash. A critical examination of TCLP’s applicability to MSWI ash is especially relevant, as ash management at MSWI facilities often centers on passing TCLP, regardless of environmental risk posed by the ash or its recyclability. Multiple batch leaching tests were conducted on different MSWI ash streams: mixed ash, fly ash, and different size fractions of bottom ash. Batch-test results were compared with leachate simulating MSWI ash monofills. The TCLP did not consistently provide the most conservative estimate of leaching, supporting the need to consider alternative methodologies in future regulatory development.

Implications: This paper analyzes the existing hazardous waste regulatory testing requirement for municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) ash management to evaluate whether the TCLP serves its intended purpose in providing the most conservative estimate of landfilled MSWI ash. The results will serve as guidance and motivation for policy makers and the regulatory community to reevaluate the TCLP’s application for characterizing MSWI ash leaching in certain disposal scenarios and could promote consideration of alternative testing procedures based upon results of this study. This study serves to promote representative and accurate quantification of leaching risk from MSWI ash.     

The benefits of lower ozone due to air pollution emission reductions (2002–2011) in the Eastern United States during extreme heat

ABSTRACT

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool, we estimate the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011 in the Eastern United States (US) with respect to surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related health and economic impacts, during a month of extreme heat, July 2011. Based on CMAQ simulations using emissions appropriate for 2002 and 2011, we estimate that emission reductions since 2002 likely prevented 10– 15 ozone exceedance days (using the 2011 maximum 8-hr average ozone standard of 75 ppbv) throughout the Ohio River Valley and 5– 10 ozone exceedance days throughout the Washington, DC – Baltimore, MD metropolitan area during this extremely hot month. CMAQ results were fed into the BenMAP-CE tool to determine the health and health-related economic benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that the concomitant health benefits from the ozone reductions were significant for this anomalous month: 160–800 mortalities (95% confidence interval (CI): 70–1,010) were avoided in July 2011 in the Eastern U.S, saving an estimated $1.3–$6.6 billion (CI: $174 million–$15.5 billion). Additionally, we estimate that emission reductions resulted in 950 (CI: 90–2,350) less hospital admissions from respiratory symptoms, 370 (CI: 180–580) less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 (CI: 0–1650) less Emergency Room (ER) visits from asthma symptoms, 922,020 (CI: 469,960–1,370,050) less minor restricted activity days (MRADs), and 430,240 (CI: ?280,350–963,190) less symptoms of asthma exacerbation during July 2011.

Implications: We estimate the benefits of air pollution emission reductions on surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related impacts on human health and the economy between 2002 and 2011 during an extremely hot month, July 2011, in the eastern United States (US) using the CMAQ and BenMAP-CE models. Results suggest that, during July 2011, emission reductions prevented 10-15 ozone exceedance days in the Ohio River Valley and 5-10 ozone exceedance days in the Mid Atlantic; saved 160-800 lives in the Eastern US, saving $1.3 - $6.5 billion; and resulted in 950 less hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, 370 less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 less Emergency Room visits for asthma symptoms, 922,020 less minor restricted activity days, and 430,240 less symptoms of asthma exacerbation.     

Reciprocation wary employees discount psychological contract fulfillment

The present study examined the moderating role of reciprocation wariness in the association of employees' psychological contract fulfillment with psychosomatic strain and voluntary turnover, as mediated by perceived organizational support. To study these relationships longitudinally, 169 graduating college seniors were surveyed upon job acceptance and again 3 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 18 months following the start of employment. The findings showed that psychological contract fulfillment was positively related to perceived organizational support. However, this positive relationship was eliminated by reciprocation wariness, and this influence was carried over to psychosomatic strain and voluntary turnover. Thus, it appears that reciprocation wariness leads employees to discount psychological contract fulfillment as an indication of the organization's valuation and caring. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.