The Consistency of Extinction Risk Classification Protocols

Abstract:  Systematic protocols that use decision rules or scores are seen to improve consistency and transparency in classifying the conservation status of species. When applying these protocols, assessors are typically required to decide on estimates for attributes that are inherently uncertain. Input data and resulting classifications are usually treated as though they are exact and hence without operator error. We investigated the impact of data interpretation on the consistency of protocols of extinction risk classifications and diagnosed causes of discrepancies when they occurred. We tested three widely used systematic classification protocols employed by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. We provided 18 assessors with identical information for 13 different species to infer estimates for each of the required parameters for the three protocols. The threat classification of several of the species varied from low risk to high risk, depending on who did the assessment. This occurred across the three protocols investigated. Assessors tended to agree on their placement of species in the highest (50–70%) and lowest risk categories (20–40%), but there was poor agreement on which species should be placed in the intermediate categories. Furthermore, the correspondence between the three classification methods was unpredictable, with large variation among assessors. These results highlight the importance of peer review and consensus among multiple assessors in species classifications and the need to be cautious with assessments carried out by a single assessor. Greater consistency among assessors requires wide use of training manuals and formal methods for estimating parameters that allow uncertainties to be represented, carried through chains of calculations, and reported transparently.     

Taxonomic Considerations in Listing Subspecies Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Abstract:  The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) allows listing of subspecies and other groupings below the rank of species. This provides the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service with a means to target the most critical unit in need of conservation. Although roughly one-quarter of listed taxa are subspecies, these management agencies are hindered by uncertainties about taxonomic standards during listing or delisting activities. In a review of taxonomic publications and societies, we found few subspecies lists and none that stated standardized criteria for determining subspecific taxa. Lack of criteria is attributed to a centuries-old debate over species and subspecies concepts. Nevertheless, the critical need to resolve this debate for ESA listings led us to propose that minimal biological criteria to define disjunct subspecies (legally or taxonomically) should include the discreteness and significance criteria of distinct population segments (as defined under the ESA). Our subspecies criteria are in stark contrast to that proposed by supporters of the phylogenetic species concept and provide a clear distinction between species and subspecies. Efforts to eliminate or reduce ambiguity associated with subspecies-level classifications will assist with ESA listing decisions. Thus, we urge professional taxonomic societies to publish and periodically update peer-reviewed species and subspecies lists. This effort must be paralleled throughout the world for efficient taxonomic conservation to take place.     

提升“三线一单”中生态环境准入清单有效性的若干建议

生态环境准入清单是“三线一单”的成果出口，是未来落实空间环境管控和准入的直接依据，也是提升“三线一单”有效落地实施的重要抓手，要达到适用、实用、管用的要求。通过总结梳理当前已发布和编制中的生态环境准入清单情况，本文发现各省（区、市）在构建生态环境准入清单分层体系、制定“三线—单元—清单”逻辑链条和解决区域重点环境问题中形成了较好的经验，但同时生态环境准入清单在编制和应用中还存在各层次缺乏连通、管控单元和清单要求之间存在逻辑偏差、对主要环境问题研判不够和缺乏针对性整改措施等难点与问题。结合各省（区、市）编制组在清单编制中的有效做法和经验，本文建议在下一步清单细化和优化工作中，首先要加强与各职能部门、管理部门的对接；其次要坚持问题导向，结合区域实际情况，以精细化管理的目标制定针对性的清单措施与要求；最后开展成果的实践应用试点，总结经验，进一步提升清单有效性。     

A Retrospective Evaluation of the Global Decline of Carnivores and Ungulates

Assessing temporal changes in species extinction risk is necessary for measuring conservation success or failure and for directing conservation resources toward species or regions that would benefit most. Yet, there is no long‐term picture of genuine change that allows one to associate species extinction risk trends with drivers of change or conservation actions. Through a review of 40 years of IUCN‐related literature sources on species conservation status (e.g., action plans, red‐data books), we assigned retrospective red‐list categories to the world's carnivores and ungulates (2 groups with relatively long generation times) to examine how their extinction risk has changed since the 1970s. We then aggregated species’ categories to calculate a global trend in their extinction risk over time. A decline in the conservation status of carnivores and ungulates was underway 40 years ago and has since accelerated. One quarter of all species (n = 498) moved one or more categories closer to extinction globally, while almost half of the species moved closer to extinction in Southeast Asia. The conservation status of some species improved (toward less threatened categories), but for each species that improved in status 8 deteriorated. The status of large‐bodied species, particularly those above 100 kg (including many iconic taxa), deteriorated significantly more than small‐bodied species (below 10 kg). The trends we found are likely related to geopolitical events (such as the collapse of Soviet Union), international regulations (such as CITES), shifting cultural values, and natural resource exploitation (e.g., in Southeast Asia). Retrospective assessments of global species extinction risk reduce the risk of a shifting baseline syndrome, which can affect decisions on the desirable conservation status of species. Such assessments can help conservationists identify which conservation policies and strategies are or are not helping safeguard biodiversity and thus can improve future strategies. Una Evaluación Retrospectiva de la Declinación Global de Carnívoros y Ungulados     

Combined effects of life-history traits and human impact on extinction risk of freshwater megafauna

Megafauna species are intrinsically vulnerable to human impact. Freshwater megafauna (i.e., freshwater animals ≥30 kg, including fishes, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians) are subject to intensive and increasing threats. Thirty-four species are listed as critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Red List of Threatened Species, the assessments for which are an important basis for conservation actions but remain incomplete for 49 (24%) freshwater megafauna species. Consequently, the window of opportunity for protecting these species could be missed. Identifying the factors that predispose freshwater megafauna to extinction can help predict their extinction risk and facilitate more effective and proactive conservation actions. Thus, we collated 8 life-history traits for 206 freshwater megafauna species. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the relationships between extinction risk based on the IUCN Red List categories and the combined effect of multiple traits, as well as the effect of human impact on these relationships for 157 classified species. The most parsimonious model included human impact and traits related to species’ recovery potential including life span, age at maturity, and fecundity. Applying the most parsimonious model to 49 unclassified species predicted that 17 of them are threatened. Accounting for model predictions together with IUCN Red List assessments, 50% of all freshwater megafauna species are considered threatened. The Amazon and Yangtze basins emerged as global diversity hotspots of threatened freshwater megafauna, in addition to existing hotspots, including the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Mekong basins and the Caspian Sea region. Assessment and monitoring of those species predicted to be threatened are needed, especially in the Amazon and Yangtze basins. Investigation of life-history traits and trends in population and distribution, regulation of overexploitation, maintaining river connectivity, implementing protected areas focusing on freshwater ecosystems, and integrated basin management are required to protect threatened freshwater megafauna in diversity hotspots.     

Understanding the drivers of expert opinion when classifying species as extinct

The criteria as laid out by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List are the gold standard by which the extinction risk of a species is assessed and where appropriate biological extinctions are declared. However, unlike all other categories, the category of extinct lacks a quantitative framework for assigning this category. Given its subjective nature, we surveyed expert assessors working on a diversity of taxa to explore the attributes they used to declare a species extinct. Using a choice experiment approach, we surveyed 674 experts from the IUCN Species Survival Commission specialist groups and taskforces. Data availability, time from the last sighting, detectability, habitat availability, and population decline were all important attributes favored by assessors when inferring extinction. Respondents with red-listing experience assigned more importance to the attributes data availability, time from the last sighting, and detectability when considering a species extinction, whereas those respondents working with well-known taxa gave more importance to the time from the last sighting. Respondents with no red-listing experience and those working with more well-known taxa (i.e., mammals and birds) were overall less likely to consider species extinct. Our findings on the importance assessors place on attributes used to declare a species extinct provide a basis for informing the development of specific criteria for more accurately assessing species extinctions.     

“三线一单”大气管控单元划分法在上海的应用

本研究基于“三线一单”编制技术要求计算了上海市2017年大气污染物排放量,其中SO2排放量为6. 28万吨、NOX排放量为31. 50万吨、VOCs排放量为33. 38万吨、一次PM2. 5排放量为5. 09万吨、NH3的排放量为8. 17万吨。根据上海市污染源排放特征,划分了大气环境管控单元,其中包括6个大气优先保护区、115个大气重点管控区以及1个大气环境一般管控区,其中大气重点管控区分为高排放区和受体敏感区。     

Determinants of bird conservation‐action implementation and associated population trends of threatened species

Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near‐threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction‐risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness‐raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near‐threatened birds worldwide.     

Effect of scale on trait predictors of species responses to agriculture

Species persistence in human‐altered landscapes can depend on factors operating at multiple spatial scales. To understand anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity, it is useful to examine relationships between species traits and their responses to land‐use change. A key knowledge gap concerns whether these relationships vary depending on the scale of response under consideration. We examined how local‐ and large‐scale habitat variables influence the occupancy dynamics of a bird community in cloud forest zones in the Colombian Chocó‐Andes. Using data collected across a continuum of forest and agriculture, we examined which traits best predict species responses to local variation in farmland and which traits best predict species responses to isolation from contiguous forest. Global range size was a strong predictor of species responses to agriculture at both scales; widespread species were less likely to decline as local habitat cover decreased and as distance from forest increased. Habitat specialization was a strong predictor of species responses only at the local scale. Open‐habitat species were particularly likely to increase as pasture increased, but they were relatively insensitive to variation in distance to forest. Foraging plasticity and flocking behavior were strong predictors of species responses to distance from forest, but not their responses to local habitat. Species with lower plasticity in foraging behaviors and obligate flock‐following species were more likely to decline as distance from contiguous forest increased. For species exhibiting these latter traits, persistence in tropical landscapes may depend on the protection of larger contiguous blocks of forest, rather than the integration of smaller‐scale woodland areas within farmland. Species listed as threatened or near threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List were also more likely to decline in response to both local habitat quality and isolation from forest relative to least‐concern species, underlining the importance of contiguous forests for threatened taxa.     

Limits to captive breeding of mammals in zoos

Captive breeding of mammals in zoos is the last hope for many of the best‐known endangered species and has succeeded in saving some from certain extinction. However, the number of managed species selected is relatively small and focused on large‐bodied, charismatic mammals that are not necessarily under strong threat and not always good candidates for reintroduction into the wild. Two interrelated and more fundamental questions go unanswered: have the major breeding programs succeeded at the basic level of maintaining and expanding populations, and is there room to expand them? I used published counts of births and deaths from 1970 to 2011 to quantify rates of growth of 118 captive‐bred mammalian populations. These rates did not vary with body mass, contrary to strong predictions made in the ecological literature. Most of the larger managed mammalian populations expanded consistently and very few programs failed. However, growth rates have declined dramatically. The decline was predicted by changes in the ratio of the number of individuals within programs to the number of mammal populations held in major zoos. Rates decreased as the ratio of individuals in programs to populations increased. In other words, most of the programs that could exist already do exist. It therefore appears that debates over the general need for captive‐breeding programs and the best selection of species are moot. Only a concerted effort could create room to manage a substantially larger number of endangered mammals. Los Límites para la Reproducción en Cautiverio de Mamíferos en Zoológicos Alroy