基于库兹涅茨曲线经济增长与环境质量关系研究——以济南市为例

通过分析济南市经济发展与环境污染现状,采用层次分析法,选取了全社会固定资产投资作为经济指标,以工业废水、废气排放量及工业固体废物产生量作为环境指标。运用统计软件SPSS对济南市近几年经济发展与环境污染的关系进行相关分析,发现济南市的经济增长与环境污染之间存在着密切关系。对所得指标进行标准化处理,用SPSS进行曲线分析模拟,做出经济指标与各环境指标的回归模型图。结合环境经济学的库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)对济南市经济发展与环境污染的曲线图进行分析,发现济南市还没达到EKC的稳定阶段,不能走“先污染后治理”的模式,为此需要改变经济发展模式,实施可持续发展,完善环境政策,提高全民环境意识。     

济南市可持续发展状况评价研究

构建了济南市可持续发展指标体系,对济南市1999—2004年的可持续发展状况进行了评价分析,发现济南市在2002年以前可持续发展保持较好;2002年以后经济继续保持较快发展,但资源环境指数和社会发展指数出现下滑趋势,社会发展和环境改善未能与经济的发展保持同步,可持续发展出现出一定程度的不协调,并对济南市的可持续发展提出了对策和建议。     

济南市区水环境承载力现状及可持续性发展对策

基于济南市区水环境现状,建立了水环境承载力系统动力学模型,通过模拟在目前经济发展状况下水环境承载力的变化趋势,提出了提高济南市水环境承载能力的对策,从而为济南市水环境的可持续发展提供依据。     

城郊生态过渡带的特点及建设模式(九)——以济南市为例

城郊生态过渡带是一种特殊的过渡类型。以济南市为例,依据生态学原理,在分析了城郊生态过渡带的特点及其环境问题基础上提出了以可持续发展等思想为指导,因地制宜,建设城郊生态园的新型发展模式,促进城郊生态环境的保护和改善。     

济南市机动车排气污染特征及对市区PM2.5的影响

从济南市机动车年检线上利用稀释通道方法采集了小型汽油车、中型汽油车、中型柴油车和大型柴油车4类机动车排气载带PM_(2.5),分析测量了样品中水溶性离子、金属元素、有机C(OC)和元素C(EC)的含量,明确了济南市机动车排气的化学组分特征,得到了济南市机动车排气污染现状以及排放特征.计算了4类机动车排气载带颗粒物的OC/EC值,小型汽油车、中型汽油车、中型柴油车和大型柴油车排气载带颗粒物中OC/EC值分别为15.79、4.34、1.93和0.39,其中小型汽油车、中型汽油车的OC/EC值均大于2,表明汽油车的尾气大于柴油车的尾气污染.而小型汽油车OC/EC值高达15.79,说明小型汽油车尾气中存在严重的二次污染.金属元素特征分析表明Ti、Mn、Fe、Al在济南市机动车尾气颗粒物PM_(2.5)中含量较高,尤其是Mn和Ti,因此,这4种金属元素可作为济南市机动车尾气源的标志元素.PMF模型解析表明,机动车排气源对济南市环境空气PM_(2.5)的贡献率为17.5%,由此可以通过控制济南市小、中型汽油机动车数量、改善油品和改善机动车排气系统来降低对PM_(2.5)的贡献率,从而减少市区空气中PM_(2.5)的浓度.     

济南市机动车排气污染现状与控制对策研究

机动车排气污染已经成为济南市空气污染的重要来源,NOx,CO,THC等污染物排放量分别占机动车与固定源排放总量的22%,96%和92%,机动车排气污染使得道路空气环境质量明显恶化。出租车、轿车、摩托车是机动车污染的3种主要车型。文中在阐明造成机动车污染较重的原因基础上,提出了控制机动车污染的管理、技术以及辅助对策。      

NEWS

Abstract

Based on the data of urban land use obtained by remote sensing interpretation from aero images in 1986 and 2004, the spatial structure of Jinan is studied in this paper with the method of Geographic Information System (GIS). According to the proportion of land for residence, industry and commerce, the urban district can be distinguished into three rings. Compared with the traditional theory of the ring structure in Western countries, they have many distinctive characteristics. The main functions of the inner ring include residence, business and banking, but the proportion of residential land (more than 50%) is considerably higher than that of the cities in Western countries. The land proportion for residence and industry in the intermediate ring is equal on the whole. The main land of the outside ring is for industrial use. From 1986 to 2004, great changes have taken place on the land proportion of different types of use. In the inner ring, the land for residential and industrial use has shrunk much while the land for commercial use has increased. In the intermediate ring, the changes of the three types of land use were not very much and the temporal variation was relatively stable. On the contrary, the structure in the outside ring varies acutely. Though most of it is also for industrial use, the proportion of residential land has increased much. The three rings can also be divided into several sectors respectively, according to the function of land use clusters. New trends and mechanisms of the changes of land use impacting the urban structure were proposed in the end of the paper.     

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth:A Case Study for Jinan Municipality,China

China is experiencing a process of rapid industrialization and urbanization at the cost of agricultural land and environment,particularly in the costal areas. This study takes Jinan as a case presenting a time-series analysis of urban land expansion from 313 to 2003. The results show that the urban expansion of Jinan city mainly took place in the last 100 years, especially after the economic reform in 1978. Social development and economic growth,urban population growth and migration policies were factors driving the urban land expansion. Urban sprawl resulted in a disappearance of wetlands and a great loss of agricultural land, and over-pumping of ground water that led to disappearance of the city‘s feature,namely “the city of springs“.     

济南市城市扩展与城市暴雨洪灾

阐述了济南市城市扩展历程和城市暴雨洪灾概况,分析了济南市城市暴雨洪灾的成因.研究结果表明,浅盆地形和多暴雨的气候条件是济南市城市暴雨洪灾的自然致灾因素,而城市扩展后,城市雨岛效应增加了市区暴雨出现的频率与强度,城市外部排水变为内部排水,对下垫面性质及自然沟道、洼地的改造使城市洪量增大,滞时减小等,加剧了济南市城市暴雨洪灾的量级和频度.为应对严峻的城市暴雨洪灾,提出了排蓄结合的应对措施.即从源头上减少流经城区的洪水量,加强排水系统的整治,建立健全雨情、水情遥测网和城市防洪调度决策支持系统.     

生态足迹在城市可持续性定量测度中的应用——以济南市2003年为例

根据生态足迹模型,对济南市2003年的生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字进行了实证计算和分析.结果表明:济南处于不可持续发展中.造成生态赤字大的原因是能源结构、对自然资源开发过度和人口密度大.因此,提高土地生产力、严格控制人口数量、建立资源节约型生产和消费体系势在必行.