Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.     

Ozone measurements along vertical transects in the Alps

To investigate the vertical profiles of air pollutants in the boundary layer, aircraft and balloon-born measurements and measurements using a cable car as an instrument platform have been performed in different parts of the Alps. This on-line monitoring of atmospheric pollutants requires expensive and sophisticated techniques. In order to control ambient air quality in remote regions, where no infrastructure like power supply is available, simple instruments are required. The objective of this study, which was coordinated and evaluated by the GSF-Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und Gesundheit was first, to investigate the vertical distribution of ozone in different parts of the Alps and secondly, in addition to continuous analyser measurements, to test monitoring by means of two types of passive samplers. The selection of these samplers — one for one week use and another one for two week application — was based on a passive sampler intercomparison done in a preliminary study one year earlier.     

World coal outlook: 1990s

In the 1990s for the newly industrializing nations of the Pacific Rim and for the OECD countries as well, the demand for energy is expected to increase at a rate in excess of that of the increase in GNP. The demand for coal is likely to increase as well but probably to a lesser degree than GNP. This is because coal can expect increasing competition not from oil, but from natural gas. For a whole host of reasons, economic as well as environmental, gas could be the preferred fuel of the 1990s. Nevertheless, coal prices can be expected to increase but low cost production due to come on stream shortly, is likely to keep those increases modest.     

商品和服务消费在家庭温室气体计算表中的重要性

尽管生活方式，尤其是商品和服务消费，对于温室气体排放的全球性不公平和不可持续性具有关键作用，但这些问题在有关的情报和教育资料如温室气体计算表中常常没有给予充分的表述。通常的结论是，对于气候变化负有责任的是个人，而且只限于读者周围的环境，如家庭和私人汽车，而商品和服务的消费却几乎一直被忽略。结果是，有关减少个人温室气体排放的建议都集中在次要的电力和燃料的使用方面，没有把减少商品和服务消费这个更重要的问题作为减轻气候变化的一个有效途径。本文以最近发表的家庭温室气体排放调查表为例，阐述上述缺点。同时也提出了一个温室气体综合计算表的实例。     

Prenatal diagnosis of aortic atresia by colour doppler flow mapping

A case of aortic atresia with insufficiency of mitral valve diagnosed prenatally at 33 weeks of gestation is presented. An accurate diagnosis of this fetal cardiovascular malformation was possible by application of Doppler colour flow mapping, which demonstrated (a) the absence of forward flow in the hypoplastic ascending aorta, (b) reverse flow of blood from the ductus arteriosus into the severely hypoplastic ascending aorta in the late systole, (c) pansystolic mitral valve regurgitation, and (d) absent flow across the foramen ovale as a result of premature closure of the foramen ovale.