灰色预测模型GM（1,1）在地面水质预测中的应用

本文将地面水质视作灰色系统,对某河段的化学耗氧量(COD),生化耗氧量(BOD_5)用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行建模、预测。最大误5.2％,平均误差小于0.2％,模型精度高。建模需要的数据较少,对数据的分布无特殊要求,方法和计算简单,实用价值大,是地面水质预测预报的一种有效方法。     

DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF A SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTING TECHNIQUE1

ABSTRACT: The snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) was used to produce accurate simulations of streamfiow during the snowmelt period (April-September) for ten years on the Rio Grande Basin (3419 km²) near Del Norte, Colorado, U.S.A. In order to use SRM in the forecast situation, it was necessary to develop a family of snow cover depletion curves for each elevation zone based on accumulated snow water equivalent on April 1. Selection of an appropriate curve for a particular year from snow course measurements allows input of the daily snow cover extent to SRM for forecast purposes. Data from three years (1980, 1981, and 1985) were used as a quasi-forecast test of the procedure. In these years forecasted snow cover extent data were input to SRM, but observed temperature and precipitation data were used. The resulting six-month hydrographs were very similar to the hydrographs in the ten simulation years previously tested based on comparisons of performance evaluation criteria. Based on this result, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) requested SRM forecasts for 1987 on the Rio Grande. Using the same procedure but with SCS estimated temperature and precipi-tation data, SRM produced a forecast hydrograph that had a r²= 0.82 and difference in seasonal volume of 4.4 percent. To approximate actual operational conditions, SRM computed daily flows were updated every seven days with measured flows. The resulting forecast hydrograph had a R²= 0.90 and a difference in volume of 3.5 percent. The method developed needs to be refined and tested on additional years and basins, but the approach appears to be applicable to operational runoff forecasting using remote sensing data.     

刚玉冶炼电炉烟尘回收的环境意义

电弧炉冶炼棕刚玉过程中产生大量烟尘，排放到大气中严重污染环境。为全面评估刚玉冶炼电炉烟尘对环境的影响，本文对贵州某厂３０００ＫＶＡ及７５００ＫＶＡ两组电炉，采用电收尘及布袋收尘前后的１２个状态和２４个系列进行预测计算与分析，结果表明；采用电收尘或布袋收尘后，电炉周围的大气环境质量显著改善，由三级的恶劣状态变为一级的优良状态。     

建设先进的环境监测预警体系是国家环境安全的需要

建设先进的环境监测预警体系是中国环境保护发展进程中首次提出的新观点,是做好新形势下的环保工作,加快实现三个转变的需要;是全面反映环境质量状况和趋势,准确预警应急突发环境事件的需要;是现代化环境管理工作的需要;是树立负责任大国国际形象的需要;是国家环境安全的需要.     

城市空气质量数值预报方法研究

城市空气质量数值预报,在时空分辨率和预报客观性方面具有明显优势,是未来城市空气质量预报的主要发展方向。以济南市为例,探索建立了一套较为成熟的城市空气质量数值预报方法。该方法采用高分辨率对流层化学模式系统为预报模式基础,同时根据济南市特点对模式系统进行修正,取得了较好的预报效果。此外,该模式系统由于能够较为准确地模拟城市范围内污染物的时空分布,在城市空气污染防治规划方面具有较为广泛的应用前景。     

人工鱼群神经网络应用于城市污水处理厂进水量预测研究

城市污水处理厂进水量的预测精度对污水厂的安全运行与科学管理具有重要影响。将人工鱼群算法用于神经网络的训练过程,并根据污水厂进水量的变化特性,考虑其周期性及气温、天气和节假日等影响因素,建立人工鱼群神经网络的预测模型。将人工鱼群神经网络预测模型应用到实际中,研究结果表明人工鱼群神经网络具有预测精度高、误差小的优点,在污水管网监测预警及实现管网与水厂联动等方面具有一定的实际意义。     

An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part II. Model application and results

The present optimisation model described in Part I of this work is applied to optimise water resources in the Haihe river basin, an important basin in north China that covers 31.82 million km². Results show that this optimisation model with the HGSAA solution is feasible and effective in the long-term optimisation of water resource use. It is shown that the combined forecasting method can improve the forecast precision. The results obtained indicate that the mean relative errors of BP and polynomial models are 2.3% and 4.9%, respectively, while that of the combined forecasting method is 1.93% in a case study on the Tumahe River for 2010. The combined forecasting method performs better because it incorporates various forecasting methods. The optimisation results show that both domestic and eco-environmental water demands can satisfy the requirements of the forecasting procedure, and the harmonious indices all exceeded 0.7. The Luanhe River is the most water-scarce sub-basin in the Haihe river basin.     

基于雨量(强)条件的泥石流预测预报研究现状、问题与建议

在对基于雨量(强)条件泥石流预测预报现状综合分析的基础上,提出了目前降雨型泥石流预测预报中存在的问题:①前期降雨对泥石流发生的贡献问题;②前期降雨对泥石流影响的衰减问题;③前期有效降雨天数的确定问题;④前期降雨和短历时降雨的权重衡量问题;⑤基于前期有效雨量的泥石流预测预报模式的确定问题。提出了降雨型泥石流预测预报程式框架和相关建议:①基于雨量(强)条件的泥石流预测预报应同机理研究密切结合;②单沟泥石流临界雨量条件和预测预报应同泥石流类型密切结合;③区域泥石流临界雨量条件和预测预报应同环境地质背景密切结合。     

“十二五”及2020年电力需求预测研究

准确地把握未来10年的电力需求走势是做好电力规划、安排电力建设的重要基础.考虑到不同部门电力需求具有不同的决定因素和机制,本文把全社会用电量分为居民生活用电、农业用电、工业用电、建筑业用电和服务业用电等五个部分,构建、拟合不同的电力需求方程,预测电力需求.预测的主要结果是:“十二五”期间全社会用电量年均增长率约为7.8%,2015年用电量超过6万亿kWh,“十三五”期间的年均增长率为6.1%,2020年用电量接近8.2万亿kWh.未来10年,单位产值用电量将逐步下降,电力消费增长率将低于GDP增长率,电力需求弹性分别为0.84和0.72.电力需求结构将发生显著变化,到2020年居民生活用电占全社会用电比重为20%左右,工业用电比重将从当前的73%下降到2020年的63%.     

基于广义加权组合预测法的建设用地需求预测——以苏州市为例

对现行采用的多种常用建设用地需求量预测方法进行了比较,并以苏州市为例,采用5种预测模型进行了对比分析,利用近13年的统计数据进行了验证.结果表明,广义加权组合预测法得到的结果误差最小、精度最高.