Objective: This study aims to investigate the contributing factors to secondary collisions and the effects of secondary collisions on injury severity levels. Manhattan, which is the most densely populated urban area of New York City, is used as a case study. In Manhattan, about 7.5% of crash events become involved with secondary collisions and as high as 9.3% of those secondary collisions lead to incapacitating and fatal injuries.
Methods: Structural equation models (SEMs) are proposed to jointly model the presence of secondary collisions and injury severity levels and adjust for the endogeneity effects. The structural relationship among secondary collisions, injury severity, and contributing factors such as speeding, alcohol, fatigue, brake defects, limited view, and rain are fully explored using SEMs. In addition, to assess the temporal effects, we use time as a moderator in the proposed SEM framework.
Results: Due to its better performance compared with other models, the SEM with no constraint is used to investigate the contributing factors to secondary collisions. Thirteen explanatory variables are found to contribute to the presence of secondary collisions, including alcohol, drugs, inattention, inexperience, sleep, control disregarded, speeding, fatigue, defective brakes, pedestrian involved, defective pavement, limited view, and rain. Regarding the temporal effects, results indicate that it is more likely to sustain secondary collisions and severe injuries at night.
Conclusions: This study fully investigates the contributing factors to secondary collisions and estimates the safety effects of secondary collisions after adjusting for the endogeneity effects and shows the advantage of using SEMs in exploring the structural relationship between risk factors and safety indicators. Understanding the causes and impacts of secondary collisions can help transportation agencies and automobile manufacturers develop effective injury prevention countermeasures. 相似文献
Objective: Motorcycles are a common mode of transportation in low- and middle-income countries. Tanzania, in particular, has experienced an increased use of motorcycles in the last decade. In Dar es Salaam, motorcycles provide door-to-door travel and often operate where more conventional services are uneconomical or physically impossible to maneuver. Although motorcycles play a crucial role in improving mobility in the city, they have several safety issues. This study focuses on identifying factors influencing the severity of motorcycle crashes.
Method: A multinomial logit analysis was conducted to identify factors influencing the severity of motorcycle crashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The severity categories were fatal, severe injury, minor injury, and property damage only (PDO). The analysis was based on a total of 784 motorcycle crashes that occurred from 2013 to 2016.
Results: The following factors were found to increase the probability of a fatality: Speeding, driving under the influence, head-on impact, presence of horizontal curves, reckless riding, off-peak hours, violations, and riding without a helmet. The results indicate that crashes occurring on weekdays, during peak hours, at intersections, involving a rear-end impact, in daylight, on street roads, and under clear weather conditions decrease the probability of a fatality. However, minor injury and PDO crashes were found to be associated with crashes occurring during peak hours, at intersections, and on street roads, as well as failure to yield right-of-way.
Conclusions: Several countermeasures are recommended based on the study findings. The recommended countermeasures focus on the holistic safety improvement strategies constituting the three Es of highway safety, namely, engineering, education, and enforcement. 相似文献
The high incidence of hunting activity and forest fires in different ecosystems (particularly in Mediterranean ecosystems) requires a model, which allows for the comprehensive management of hunting resources and estimating the potential damage caused by this type of disturbance. This paper proposes a model for evaluating the socio-economic effects of forest fires on hunting. Its cornerstone lies in evaluating hunting resource availability for each ecosystem within its territorial mosaic. Each game management unit (GMU) is identified by vegetation structure and habitat type. It presents a novel approach in which the economic value of each game management unit is linked to potential forest fire damages. The effect a forest fire has on an entire ecosystem depends on the intensity of its flames. A sample study was undertaken in the province of Huelva in Andalusia (southern Spain). The socio-economic hunting vulnerability of the province of Huelva was 45,188,000€. The results obtained confirmed the need for an economic appraisal of non-forest products in the forest and other woodland areas. Geographic Information System increases the flexibility and simplicity of our methodology which permits immediate extrapolation to other agroforestry territories. 相似文献
ABSTRACT: Past historical evidence indicates that droughts have had great impacts on human life. Drought (or scarcity of water) is assessed based on two key factors, namely, the estimated water demand, and the expected water supply. The formulation of these key factors for a region largely depends on the agro-climatic and economic conditions. Consideration of one such key factor is the relationship between the crop yield and water deficit in the assessment and prediction of agricultural droughts. The varying nature of this relationship from crop to crop adds to the complexity of agricultural drought analysis. To overcome this difficulty in analyzing agricultural droughts of a region, it is adequate to consider and place emphasis on a single crop (i.e., an index crop) grown homogeneously over the major area of the region. From one year to another year, the pattern of water requirement during the growing season of an index crop is rather stationary, and the water supply in arid and semi-arid area is mainly from seasonal random precipitation. In a region, grain yield of the index crop and, in turn, assessment of the severity of drought can reasonably be predicted as a function of the time of crop sowing and the distribution of rainfall, provided that temporal and spatial effects of other contributing factors (crop variety, soil fertility status, crop disease, pest control, cultivation practices etc.) on grain yield are considered to be uniformly distributed (i.e., stable). A predictive method of assessing agricultural droughts in an arid area of western India is presented. The major crop (Pearl Millet) of this region is grown from. July through September. The formulation of the proposed predictive method inherently implies that the grain yield of the main crop is a reliable indicator of agricultural drought. In the development of this predictive relationship (i.e., a regression type model) a number of potential yet simple variables affecting the grain yield in the region were investigated. The soil moisture index, although generally considered significant compared to the simple variables, has been found to account for insignificant variation in the grain yield. Results of our investigations suggest that it would be advisable to exclude the soil moisture index variable from the model. The proposed regression model can be used in the prediction of grain yield of the main crop several months ahead of crop harvesting operations and, in turn, the assessment of agricultural drought severity as mild, moderate, or severe. Such an assessment is expected to be helpful to planners for arranging appropriate measures to effectively combat agricultural drought situations. 相似文献
The modern world depends greatly on hydrocarbons, which are ubiquitous, indispensable fuels used in nearly every existing industry. Although important, their use may trigger dangerous incidents, whether in their production, handling, storage, or transporting phase, especially when aerosolized. In light of proposing a standard procedure to assess the flammability and explosivity of fuel mists, a new test method was established based on the EN 14034 standards series. For the previous purposes, a gravity-fed mist generation system was designed and employed in a modified 20 L explosion vessel. This test method allowed the determination of the ignition sensitivity of several fuels. In addition, their explosion severity was represented by the explosion overpressure Pex, and the rate of pressure rise dP/dtex, two thermo-kinetic parameters determined with a specifically developed control system and custom software. Nonetheless, a noticeable difference in the ignition sensitivity and the explosion severity was perceived when changing suppliers or petroleum cuts of some fuels. Moreover, sensitivity studies showed that both the droplet size distribution and the temperature of the droplets play a significant role in fuel mist explosion. These parameters can be directly related to the vapor fraction surrounding a droplet during its ignition. Consequently, this study focuses on the influence of varying the composition of three well-known and abundantly used fuels. Different petroleum cuts were introduced in different fractions into isooctane, Jet A1 aviation fuel, and diesel fuel mixtures, which were then aerosolized into a uniformly distributed turbulent mist cloud and ignited using spark ignitors of 100 J. Subsequently, complementary tests were executed in a vertical flame propagation tube coupled with a high-speed video camera allowing the visualization of the flame and the determination of the spatial flame velocity, and a tentative estimation of the laminar burning velocity. The latter was also estimated from the pressure-time evolution in the 20 L sphere using existing correlations. Indeed, the determination of the laminar burning velocity can be useful in modeling such accidents. Finally, highlighting the essential role of the mist and vapor fraction during their ignition has led to a better understanding of their explosion mechanisms. 相似文献