Syndromes of Global Change: a qualitative modelling approach to assist global environmental management

A novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate Global Change (GC) is presented. The approach rests on the decomposition of the intrigue dynamics of GC into patterns of civilization–nature interactions (syndromes) by an iterative scientific process of observations, data and system theoretical analyses, and modelling attempts. We illustrate the approach by a detailed analysis of the Sahel Syndrome, which describes the rural poverty driven overuse of natural resources. The investigation is performed by (i) identifying relevant symptoms and interlinkages which are characteristics for this pattern, and (ii) a qualitative model representing the internal dynamics of the essential flywheel. The geographical patchwork of the regions affected by the syndrome which is obtained by global data analysis, proves the high global relevance of this pattern. The qualitative model is employed for an evaluation of basic policy strategies debated in the context of rural poverty driven environmental degradation. It turns out that a mixed policy of combating poverty and introducing soil preserving agricultural techniques and practices is most promising to tackle the syndrome dynamics.     

EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES TO THE GARRISON DIVERSION UNIT1

ABSTRACT: The Garrison Diversion Unit is a multipurpose water resources project which is currently under development for the purpose of diverting water from the Missouri River basin to irrigate farmland in North Dakota. Due to the objections raised by various interest groups, the project has recently been reviewed by the International Joint Commission. This article surveys the background to the project and the various alternatives that have been proposed. By utilizing recently developed fuzzy set techniques, the proposed alternatives are evaluated and a plausible solution is proposed. The results of the study indicate that it may be advisable to remove the Souris Loop irrigation area from the Garrison project but the environmental impacts of the study may preclude the implementation of any alternative that can affect Canada. These findings are in partial agreement with the recommendations of the International Joint Commission.     

利用保留时间锁定软件对水中挥发性有机物进行气相色谱测定

使用保留时间锁定软件 (RTL) ,在气相色谱体系中建立了水质中 5 3种挥发性有机物的保留时间数据库 ,使原始的保留时间成为化合物定性的可靠参数 ,实现了未知样品在色谱仪上的定性 ,提高了分析效率。     

Users’ Demands Regarding Dental Safety Glasses. Combining a Quantitative Approach and Grounded Theory for the Data Analysis

Eye infections are common among dentists and many are concerned, but few are using proper eye protection. To understand users’ demands behind the low use of safety glasses, all dental teams in Sweden were asked which factors they found most important when choosing dental safety glasses, and rate the importance of 31 statements regarding ergonomic aspects of dental safety glasses in a questionnaire. Data were analysed using the Grounded Theory and a quantitative approach. Results showed that dentists ranked the visual aspects as most important and chair assistants the protective aspects. The highly visual demanding work performed by dentists requires safety glasses that are not yet available on the market, which might explain the low use.     

Post-evaluation of a water pollution control plan: methodology and case study

China has developed more than 20 water pollution control plans for river basins (RBWPs) since 1996. However, the implementation has generally lagged. This paper proposes a three-step, post-evaluation methodology to analyze the implementation result of a RBWP and its influential factors. First, a multi-attribute evaluation method based on an index system is established to score the enforcement results of a RBWP. Indicators measure how well a RBWP has achieved its objectives, which include water quality compliance, pollution load control, project construction, financial inputs, and related management requirements. Second, an interpretive structural model is used to detect the significant factors that affect RBWP implementation. This model can effectively analyze the cause-effect chain and hierarchical relationship among variables. Five groups of factors were identified, namely, plan preparation, water resource endowment, policy, institution, and management. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed in the third step to evaluate the extent to which these factors have influenced the execution result of a RBWP, including pre-post contrast, scenario analysis, and correlation analysis. This research then post-evaluated the implementation of the Huai River Basin water pollution control plans (H-RBWPs) over a period of 10 years as a case study. Results showed that the implementation of the H-RBWPs was unsatisfactory during 2001–2005, although it improved during 2006–2010. The poor execution of these plans was partially caused by the underestimation of regional economic development in combination with ineffective industrial structure adjustment policies. Therefore, this case study demonstrates the feasibility and flexibility of the proposed post-evaluation methodology.     

Behavioural,emotional, and cognitive responses in European disasters: results of survivor interviews

In the European multi‐centre study BeSeCu (Behaviour, Security, Culture), interviews were conducted in seven countries to explore survivors’ emotional, behavioural, and cognitive responses during disasters. Interviews, either in groups or one‐to‐one, were convened according to type of event: collapse of a building; earthquake; fire; flood; and terror attack. The content analysis of interviews resulted in a theoretical framework, describing the course of the events, behavioural responses, and the emotional and cognitive processing of survivors. While the environmental cues and the ability to recognise what was happening varied in different disasters, survivors’ responses tended to be more universal across events, and most often were adaptive and non‐selfish. Several peri‐traumatic factors related to current levels of post‐traumatic stress were identified, while memory quantity did not differ as a function of event type or post‐traumatic stress. Time since the event had a minor effect on recall. Based on the findings, several suggestions for emergency training are made.     

煤炭自然发火事故树分析及预防

为了有效地控制煤炭自然发火,减少矿井火灾的发生,依据系统工程的原理,结合煤炭自燃的条件建立了煤炭自然发火事故树,求解得出了事故树最小径集,利用最小径集得出了各基本事件的结构重要度,从而定性分别对砌碹巷道煤炭自然发火事故、采空区(报废采区)遗煤自然发火事故、采空区(生产采区)遗煤自然发火事故、报废巷道与停工停风独头巷道煤炭自然发火事故进行了分析,得出了引起煤炭自然发火的主要原因,并针对其提出了防治煤炭自然发火的预防措施。     

Moving Society to a Sustainable Future: The Framing of Sustainability in a Constructive Media Outlet

News reporting on sustainability has been criticized for (1) having a limited coverage of solutions, (2) reporting on solutions with a negative bias, (3) being dominated by sources from government and mainstream business, and (4) promoting frames that prioritize the role of the market and techno-scientific solutions, which leave unchallenged the unsustainable behavior of consumer societies and the focus on economic growth. This study was the first to examine how sustainability is reported in a constructive media outlet and found that articles (1) consistently elaborated solutions, (2) described them in optimistic ways, (3) quoted various sources, and (4) developed a frame that challenged consumerism and critiqued society’s preoccupation with growth while helping to imagine a desirable sustainable future. It is thus argued that this novel, constructive approach to journalism can help move society to a sustainable future by expanding the repertoire of culturally-resonant stories to live by.     

Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change

The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5–50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation.     

核电厂HRA定性分析

人因可靠性分析(HRA)是核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)的重要组成部分,定性评价对核电厂庞大的数据进行筛选和分析,是HRA的基础和出发点.本文介绍了核电厂HRA定性分析的目的、原则、方法和程序,并以压水堆核电厂蒸汽发生器传热管破裂(SGTR)为具体实例进行说明.