INTEGRATION OF FOREST ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATIC MODELS WITH A HYDROLOGIC MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changes in the landscape and climate over geological time are plain to see in the present hydrological regime. More recent anthropogenic changes may also have effects on our way of life. A prerequisite to predicting such effects is that we understand the interactions between climate, landscape and the hydrological regime. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) has been developed which can be used to investigate, in a simple way, the links between landscape, climate and hydrology for watersheds of various sizes. As well as using data from the observed climate network, the model has been used with data from atmospheric models to investigate possible changes in hydrology. A critical input to such a model is knowledge of the links between landscape and climate. While direct anthropogenic effects such as changes in forested area may presently be included, the indirect effects of climate on landscape and vice versa are not yet modeled well enough to be explicitly included. The development of models describing climate-landscape relationships such as regeneration, development and breakup, water and carbon fluxes at species, ecosystem and biome level is a necessary step in understanding and predicting the effects of changes in climate on landscape and on water resources. Forest is the predominant land cover in Canada covering 453 Mha and productivity/succession models for major forest types should be included in an integrated climate-landscape-water simulation.     

拟合风频法计算重庆大气稳定度频率

本文用韦伯分布拟合风频,在确定大气稳定度的三因子太阳高度角、云量和风速是相互独立的变量的假定下,用计算单个变量频率的方法,计算了重庆5年的P—T大气稳定度频率,其结果与原P—T法统计结果十分吻合。对误差综合分析后给出了合理的订正方案,个例订正表明了方案的正确性。通过大量迭代推算给出重庆风速韦伯分布最佳函数值,以供选用。     

天灾预测最新的原理和方法：天文气象超长期预报新学科

本文简要地叙述了天文气象超长期预报的原理、方法,提出了天文气象学是实现超长期天气预报的一门新兴学科。     

STRATIFICATION VARIABILITY IN THREE MORPHOMETRICALLY DIFFERENT LAKES UNDER IDENTICAL METEOROLOGICAL FORCING1

ABSTRACT: Synoptic water temperature measurements were taken in three temperate lakes located within 25 km of one another to study the effects of morphometry (and changes in weather) on seasonal and short-term thermal stratification characteristics. Two of the lakes had nearly the same surface areas and two had nearly identical mean depths; all were exposed to identical weather conditions. The dominance of weather over morphometry on the water surface temperature response was illustrated by the synoptic measurements in two different years. Stratification structure was also found to be dominated by weather for sufficiently deep lakes. Surface area effects were most subtle but explainable as sheltering effects. The onset of stratification was not, as traditionally described, a simple, gradual response of a lake to the annual solar radiation cycle. Rather it depends on a series of alternating heating, cooling, and mixing cycles similar to annual and diel cycles but with a period of approximately five days. These were in direct response to the passage of major weather systems and displayed no apparent time lag. No comparable synoptic water temperature data set could be found in the literature.     

大气环境影响评价中污染气象分析

结合环境影响评价技术导则的要求,就实际大气环境影响评价工作中污染气象分析与大气影响预测脱节的问题,对污染气象分析应注意的要点提出探讨与建议,使污染气象分析能够更为真实地反映该地区的实际气象条件对大气污染物浓度的影响情况。     

2009年8~9月成都市颗粒物污染及其与气象条件的关系

对成都市3个不同点位PM2.5和PM10进行了为期30d的连续观测,研究了大气颗粒物浓度的时空分布特征,及其与气象条件的关系.研究表明,观测期间成都市大气颗粒物PM2.5和PM10质量浓度日均值分别为66,94μg/m3,两者浓度变化范围较大,但变化趋势相同.从空间分布来看,大气颗粒物浓度均是熊猫基地>草堂寺>丽都花园,即下风向污染状况最严重,商业繁华地段次之,生活居住区最好;从时间分布来看,大气颗粒物污染最严重出现在9月17~19日,9月5~9日2个时间段,不利的气象因素和污染物的累积是造成该时间段大气颗粒物污染加重的主要原因.PM2.5与PM10质量浓度的相关性为0.93,PM2.5对PM10的贡献较大,两者质量浓度的比值达0.69.气温对大气颗粒物浓度变化没有显著影响;降水以及风速对颗粒物浓度影响较大,主要是对颗粒物的湿清除和促进扩散作用;在一定相对湿度范围内,高湿度条件容易造成大气颗粒物的较重污染.能见度与大气颗粒物浓度呈明显负相关性,且与PM2.5的相关系数大于与PM10的相关系数.     

What drives television weather coverage?

Weather forecasts meet the classic economic definition of a public good, since the content can be easily relayed to non-payers and the cost of sharing the forecast with an additional person is zero. Freeriding by consumers leads to the potential for an inefficiently small supply of public goods by the market. Yet television networks and stations provide a large quantity of weather coverage. This paper explores the investment by US television stations in weather coverage. Specifically, we examine whether greater investments are made in cities where weather is potentially more dangerous. We find strong evidence that tornado risk drives coverage and weaker evidence for floods and hurricanes, but discover that snowfall is unrelated to investment. In addition, stations in larger markets invest more in weather coverage, and we also find regional patterns in coverage.     

1960-2015年淮河流域异常初、终霜日时空变化及其影响因子

农作物生长关键期发生的异常初、终霜日,对农业生产造成极大损失。准确了解并掌握异常初、终霜日在淮河流域的变化规律及成因,有利于做好霜冻预报服务工作,减轻霜冻灾害的影响,对保障国家粮食稳产、高产、安全具有重大的意义。基于淮河流域1960-2015年61个气象站点逐日地面0 cm最低气温资料,采用标准差计算了初、终霜日的稳定性,使用概率密度函数定义了异常初、终霜日,利用IDW插值方法反映气候态转变前后异常初、终霜日稳定性和频率,同时利用线性倾向估计、M-K、滑动t检验和累计距平法得到气温的变化趋势及突变年份,相关系数法用来分析环流指数、气温、初霜日、终霜日之间的关系。通过研究得出以下结论：（1）淮河流域近56年来平均气温以0.18 ℃·10 a^-1（P<0.01）的速率呈现显著的上升趋势并且在1993年发生突变,气候态的转型促进了初霜日的推迟和终霜日的提前。（2）气候态的转变导致初、终霜日的稳定性降低,初、终霜日稳定性随经、纬度的增加而变好,初霜日稳定性随海拔升高而变好,终霜日稳定性随海拔升高而变化不显著,终霜日稳定性好于初霜日稳定性。（3）偏早初霜日频率>偏晚终霜日频率>特早初霜日频率>特晚终霜日频率,且在气候态转型后,异常初、终霜日的频率趋于降低,稳定在0~20%之间,异常初霜日发生频率整体高于异常终霜日,气候变暖对初霜日的影响大于终霜日。（4）异常初、终霜日频率时空分布差异显著,高频年代分别为1970s和1960s,低频年代为2000s。随着气候的转变,虽然异常初、终霜日频率逐步趋于稳定且处于低频趋势,但是气候转变促进了淮河流域东南部和南部的特早初霜日频率增加,南部偏早初霜日发生频率范围增加。东北部的偏晚初霜日发生频率增加,同时东南部的特晚终霜日发生频率也明显增加。（5）北半球9月极涡面积越小,淮河流域初霜日越迟（R=-0.41,P<0.01）。10月副高面积增加,初霜日推迟（R=0.39,P<0.01）;2月极涡面积减小,终霜日提前（R=0.29, P<0.05）。4月副高面积增大,终霜日提前（R=-0.15,P>0.05）,并且在1990年后提前趋势加快。     

港口NO_2、PM_(10)与天气因素的多重分形研究

对港口大气污染物NO_2、PM_(10)和天气因素进行MF-DCCA分析研究,系统地分析了NO_2、PM_(10)与3种天气因素之间复杂关系。从整体角度上,研究表明NO_2、PM_(10)与天气因素均具有长程相关性、多重分形特性;天气因素对PM_(10)的影响程度要强于对NO_2的影响程度。从四季的角度上,研究发现,NO_2、PM_(10)浓度在春季有下降趋势,在秋季有上扬趋势。     

Application of ground-based Lidar for studies of the dynamics of ozone in a mountainous basin

A ground-based Differential Absorption Lidar was employed to study the dynamics of atmospheric O3 within the planetary boundary layer of a basin in the 'Fichtelgebirge' mountains, NE Bavaria. In particular, the night-time dynamics of O3 linked to the ground were investigated. The Lidar system measured vertical profiles of O3 up to 1 km above ground. For detailed analysis of the night-time dynamics of ozone, supplementary data from three ground-based stations (measuring mixing ratios of O3 and NO(x), as well as meteorological parameters) are essential. The Lidar results could be evaluated with these data from various altitudes above the basin floor. For the station with the largest (vertical) distance to the ground-based Lidar, the agreement was very good at all times. The Lidar method proved to be useful for examining the spatial distribution of O3. The observed night-time decrease of O3 at the bottom of the basin was due to deposition and to advection of air masses containing less O3 from the mountain slopes.