考虑恐怖袭击下危险品运输安全监管的演化博弈与稳定性分析*

为了提高恐怖袭击背景下的危险品运输安全水平和政府监管能力,首先构建政府监管部门、危险品运输企业和恐怖袭击者的三方演化博弈模型;其次引入政府动态惩罚机制和动态惩罚-补贴机制,进而采用系统动力学仿真分析动态惩罚和动态惩罚-补贴下的局中人的演化稳定策略。研究结果表明:给定情形下,引入动态惩罚机制能弥补原有模型没有稳定策略的不足;引入动态惩罚-补贴机制的模型可以演化出稳定的纯策略。     

努力创建地震预报的应用基础学科——兼论板内现今地壳运动动力学

分析地震预报已取得的成就和面临的困境,根据国内外各相关学科的新进展,作者认为创建地震预报的应用基础学科是当务之急。一种可能的选择是,在现今地球动力学、动力大地测量学(地壳形变学)、实时大地构造学及系统科学、非线性动力学等前沿学科的交叉部位上,逐步建立板内现今地壳运动动力学(或板内现今构造微动态动力学、或板内地壳形变系统动力学)。它既是地震、火山、滑坡、泥石流等灾害预测的应用基础,又是立脚于中国的全球变化研究。对它的意义、研究对象、内容与方法作了探讨,最后提出了一批建议着手开展的应用基础研究课题。     

Population dynamics of the bank vole as studied using sequence functions

Sequence functions were used to construct a simulation model of the long-term population dynamics of the bank vole in Karelia. The mechanisms of population reproduction control affect the population size if it is greater than 1 and 4 ind./100 trap-days in spring and autumn, respectively.     

An Ecologically Destabilized Environment: Its Effect on Small-Mammal Populations

Characteristics of the small-mammal populations inhabiting forest biocenoses in the Middle Ural state reserves have been analyzed over in the period from 1987 to 2002. During this period, the habitats of these animals were considerably destabilized due to windfalls and fires. The environmental characteristics of animal microhabitats at different stages of environment destabilization have been described quantitatively. Changes in the long-term cycles of the population dynamics of the dominant forest vole species caused by the destabilizing factors have been found. Redistribution of species dominance with respect to abundance has been demonstrated.     

Anthropogenic Transformation of Flora in the City of Astrakhan and Its Environs over the Past 100 Years

Trends in the anthropogenic transformation of flora in the city of Astrakhan and its environs over the past 100 years are discussed. In general, the process of flora synanthropization is observed, with natural aboriginal plant communities being replaced by anthropogenically altered communities.     

Combined molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical study of (+)-multifidene structure and conformation

Molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical tools have been used to explore the conformational space of (+)(3S,4S)-multifidene bioactive compounds. All the computations have been performed in the absence and presence of the solvent, simulated by the explicit introduction of a number of water molecules or by the polarized continuum model (PCM). Three conformational minima, both in vacuo and in water (simulated by PCM tool), have been confirmed at ab initio level of theory (B3LYP and MP2). All minima lie in a very narrow range of energy, and the interconversion between them is possible with a small amount of energy expense.     

Dynamics and Causation of Environmental Equity, Locally Unwanted Land Uses, and Neighborhood Changes

/ Why are some environmental risks distributed disproportionately in the neighborhoods of the minorities and the poor? A hypothesis was proposed in a recent study that market dynamics contributed to the current environmental inequity. That is, locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) make the host communities home to more poor people and people of color. This hypothesis was allegedly supported by a Houston case study, whereby its author analyzed the postsiting changes of the socioeconomic characteristics of the neighborhoods surrounding solid waste facilities. I argue that such an analysis of postsiting changes alone is insufficient to test the causation hypothesis. Instead, I propose a conceptual framework for analysis of environmental equity dynamics and causation. I suggest that the presiting neighborhood dynamics and the characteristics of control neighborhoods be analyzed as the first test for the causation hypothesis. Furthermore, I present theories of neighborhood change and then examine alternative hypotheses that these theories offer for explaining neighborhood changes and for the roles of LULUs in neighborhood changes. These alternative hypotheses should be examined when analyzing the relationship between LULUs and neighborhood changes in a metropolitan area. Using this framework of analysis, I revisited the Houston case. First, I found no evidence that provided support for the hypothesis that the presence of LULUs made the neighborhoods home to more blacks and poor people, contrary to the conclusion made by the previous study. Second, I examined alternative hypotheses for explaining neighborhood changes-invasion-succession, other push forces, and neighborhood life-cycle; the former two might offer better explanation.KEY WORDS: Environmental equity and justice; Locally unwanted lane uses; Siting; Market dynamics; Invasion-succession; Neighborhood changes     

河口切变锋引起的滩槽泥沙交换效应

切变锋是河口湾锋系中最为常见和最易观察到的锋面类型。本文对长江口的切变锋进行现场观察和滩，槽同步水文资料分析，简述了长江口切变锋发生的部分和基本特性，提出了切变锋引起的滩，槽泥沙呈现螺旋形交换形式等论点。     

互花米草入侵对长江口湿地土壤碳动态的影响

为了评价互花米草入侵对长江河口湿地土壤碳动态的影响,利用配对的试验设计在长江口崇明东滩湿地的高潮滩和低潮滩各设置1条入侵种互花米草与土著种的配对样线.结果表明,与土著植物相比,互花米草入侵显著增加了长江口湿地的植物碳库、土壤微生物碳、土壤总碳库和有机碳库,而对占土壤总碳库60%以上的无机碳库无显著影响,意味着互花米草入侵导致的土壤总碳库改变主要是通过增加土壤有机碳库来实现的.高潮滩互花米草和芦苇群落的年均土壤呼吸强度分别为（210.02±4.90）,（157.79±6.39）mg/（m²·h）;低潮滩互花米草和海三棱藨草群落年均土壤CO₂排放速率分别为（157.41±5.27）,（110.90±5.16）mg/（m²·h）,表明互花米草入侵显著增加长江口湿地的土壤呼吸.上述结果意味着互花米草入侵同时增加土壤碳输入和碳输出,但入侵也显著增加了土壤碳库表明入侵增加的土壤碳输入显著高于增加的土壤碳输出.本研究表明互花米草入侵可能会增强了长江河口湿地的土壤碳汇强度和固碳能力.但仍然需要长期系统的监测研究,以便全面定量评估互花米草入侵我国滨海湿地的综合生态影响.     

我国西南四省(区)大气煤基PAHs排放系统动力学分析

由于未来相当长时期内煤炭在我国的主体能源地位不会改变,全国许多地区均可能面临持续的大气煤基PAHs污染.为此,本文选取PAHs污染相对严重但缺乏足够关注的广西、四川、贵州与云南4个西南省份作为研究对象,基于煤基PAHs排放、能源消耗与经济发展之间的相互作用关系,利用系统动力学方法构建了一套综合评估模型,并将其应用于分析不同情景下西南四省(区)煤基PAHs排放的动态变化.结果表明,在维持情景下,未来10年煤基PAHs排放相对增长率的省份次序为:广西(44.54%)贵州(29.44%)云南(26.37%)四川(-2.19%).经过产业与能耗结构的调整,四川和云南在规划情景下的相对增长率分别比维持情景减少了27.17%和20.88%,这两个省的减排效果最大.同样的情况,贵州与广西仅分别减少了7.32%和5.52%,仍保持较快的增长趋势.要实现煤基PAHs的有效减排,各省份需实施有针对性的调控政策.云南应同时考虑工业源与生活源控制政策,四川应减少工业源排放量,广西和贵州应在进一步优化产业与能耗结构的基础上分别采取工业源和生活源控制政策.总体而言,系统动力学方法适用于分析非常规大气污染物的复杂动态变化,可为当地政府提供科学调控区域经济-能源结构-环境质量之间发展关系的政策参考.