Explaining Agricultural Expansion, Resource Booms and Growth in Latin America

The following paper examines the main factors determining long-run agricultural land expansion in Latin America compared to other tropical regions. Given the importance of natural resource-based sectors for most economies in Latin America, the impact of price-induced "resource booms" on economic growth in the region is explored. In addition, the paper examines whether there is an inherent "boom and bust" pattern of economic development associated with agricultural land expansion in Latin America, and the extent to which economic policies in the region exacerbate this problem. The paper concludes by examining the role of targeted policies in alleviating the structural obstacles to Latin American agricultural and economic development.     

Modelling algal blooms in the Dutch coastal waters by integrated numerical and fuzzy cellular automata approaches

In this paper, an integrated numerical and fuzzy cellular automata model was developed to predict possible algal blooms in Dutch coastal waters basing on the irradiance, nutrients and neighbourhood conditions. The numerical module used Delft3D-WAQ to compute the abiotic conditions, and fuzzy cellular automata approach was applied to predict the algal biomass that was indicated by chlorophyll a concentration. The simulated results of year 1995 were compared with that from BLOOM II model, and the advantages, disadvantages as well as future improvement were presented. In general, through this study, it is seen that the integrated modelling deserves more research inputs because: (1) the hydrodynamic processes and nutrients concentrations can be simulated in details by numerical method; (2) the irregular and sparse water quality and biological data, and the empirical knowledge from experts can be explored by the fuzzy logic technique; (3) the spatial heterogeneity, local interactions and the emerge of patchiness could be well captured through the cellular automata paradigm.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

More aid, better institutions, or both?

It has been nearly 20 years since a working definition for “sustainable development” was put forward by the World Commission on Environment and Development. The concept endures in the mission statements and frameworks of action of various societal actors, including those of neighborhood associations, metropolitan development authorities, environmental ministries, and United Nations (UN) specialized organizations, to name a few. Yet many observers doubt that sustainable development is occurring in poor countries. This failure, the critics contend, stems from miserly transfers of foreign aid. The extent to which inadequate aid is to blame for poor environmental/developmental outcomes is an open question. But vocal demands for increasing aid to meet sustainable development goals come from many parts of society and are persistent. Exhortations for more aid to help poor countries are noble, perhaps even justifiable, but there are understandable doubts about the wisdom of transferring large capital and technical resources to countries that are slow to adopt needed institutional reforms. Aid without institutional reform is a recipe for wasted resources and donor fatigue. Worse, it may enhance inequities of wealth and power in recipient countries. There are few illustrations to draw on demonstrating how institutionally impoverished societies are affected when they are compelled to absorb massive aid inputs over a short period––a remedy suggested by some prominent aid experts. As a proxy, it is valuable to examine instances where swift macroeconomic changes, spurred by external investment and export-led growth, has occurred without significant institutional development. The case of Equatorial Guinea and its sudden oil riches is examined to discern whether, in the absence of meaningful institutional reform, rapid and profound increases in foreign direct investment and export income enable poverty alleviation and sustainable development.

The resource curse

Countries that possess rich mineral deposits, it is widely assumed, are fortunate. Such deposits are assets, part of a country's natural capital. Mining is the key that converts dormant mineral wealth into schools, homes, ports, and other forms of capital that directly contribute to economic development. Over the past two decades, however, a more negative view of mining has emerged that questions the positive relationship between mineral extraction and economic development. The impetus for the alternative view came from empirical studies suggesting that countries where mining is important have not grown as rapidly as other countries. More recent studies have explored the possible reasons behind the disappointing performance of many mineral producing countries. While the central point of contention between the conventional and alternative views — namely, whether or not mining usually promotes economic development — remains unresolved, there is widespread agreement that rich mineral deposits provide developing countries with opportunities, which in some instances have been used wisely to promote development, and in other instances have been misused, hurting development. The consensus on this issue is important, for it means that one uniform policy toward all mining in the developing world is not desirable, despite the recent suggestions by some to the contrary. The appropriate public policy question is not should we or should we not promote mining in the developing countries, but rather where should we encourage it and how can we ensure that it contributes as much as possible to economic development and poverty alleviation.     

Natural and artificial landscape change in a Dutch estuary: partially monitored with low budget method (a study in the fourth dimension)

This study includes ome aspects of the shift in the Dutch attitude in relation to water during the past millennia from defense to attack to keeping the balance(“co-evolution“).It has a special focus on the freshwater tidal part,which embraces the largest of the world:Rotterdam ,as well as the largest national park of the Northerlands.It reports especially about a young mans endeavor in half a c century real time monitoring of some land (scape) units with simple means.     

Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands

Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy-makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policy-makers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.     

荷兰《环境与规划法》改革方向及其政策启示

荷兰《环境与规划法》着眼于可持续发展,以保障环境质量为核心,以政策循环为理论方法,以政策工具为手段,实现荷兰环境和规划领域的法典化,对于我国当前环境管理亟须解决的法规重叠、权力交叉、程序复杂等问题具有重要借鉴意义。本文在荷兰《环境与规划法》立法背景的基础上,梳理荷兰《环境与规划法》的改革方向,以期探究其对于我国构建和完善环境管理法律体系的政策启示:构建生态环境空间管控体系;运用政策循环和政策工具整合完善生态环境空间管控体系;深化简政放权,坚持放管并重;增强公众参与环境管理的主动意识。     

The minerals sector, sectoral analysis, and economic development

Sectoral analysis, a new branch of political science, alleges that mineral extraction creates a socio-political climate that promotes inflexible statism, which in turn leads to substandard development performance. The theory, that mineral economies underperform bureaucratically and economically, is said not only to hold in a post-dictive sense for the mature mineral economies, such as Zambia, but also in a predictive sense for the newer mineral economies, such as Ecuador. This essay reviews and assesses this hypothesis in the light of the empirical evidence comparing mineral production, state capacity, and economic performance. It finds that the sectoralist view is supportable only in selected cases, and is not a general result.     

Mineral wealth and the economic transition: Kazakstan

The exploitation of mineral wealth can amplify the problems of the transition economies in three basic ways. First, the rebound of the real exchange rate that characterises a successful transition may be augmented by the capital inflow required to expand mineral production. This can cause both recession in the short-run and lower growth in the medium-term. Second, when the mineral revenues expand, the Dutch Disease effects may intensify the transition-related shrinkage of the non-mining tradeable sector, thereby retarding economic diversification and rendering the economy vulnerable to external shocks. Third, a mineral boom tends to concentrate revenue on the government, which may use it to postpone difficult decisions on economic reform and/or dissipate the revenue due to weak financial markets and inadequate public accountability. Kazakstan, like oil-rich Azerbaijan, is a late reformer and displays evidence of a faster transition rebound than other less resource-rich countries in the CIS do. However, Kazakstan has two advantages over Azerbaijan. First, Kazakstan has a more diversified mineral endowment with which to counter any trend towards single commodity specialization. Second, Kazakstan is making a later start on oil expansion so that it can learn from the experience of Azerbaijan. Priorities for Kazakstan are the continuation of prudent economic policies, the creation of institutions to enhance the transparency of the revenue flows, and the use of environmental accounting to provide a rationale for the deployment of the oil rents.