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排序方式: 共有236条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
为更好地推动崇明低碳生态岛的建设,在应用以自下而上的部门法为基础的区域范围温室气体排放评估核算方法,全面核算崇明岛能源消费及温室气体排放现状的基础上,应用LEAP模型,通过情景分析预测崇明岛中长期能源消费需求以及温室气体排放水平,并进一步应用对数平均指数法(LMDI)对影响崇明岛未来温室气体排放的主要因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:参考情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量从2010年的101万吨标煤增加到2050年的533万吨标煤,净碳足迹从2010年的238万吨CO2e增加到2050年的579万吨CO2e。崇明岛能源消费需求和碳排放增加的主要驱动因素是未来的经济发展、人口增长和生活水平的提高,但是通过一系列的优化,尤其是能源结构的变化和能耗强度的下降,减排情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量有可能在2039年左右达到峰值,并有望在2050年左右实现"零碳岛"的长期发展目标。结合定量分析的结论,进一步提出了实现崇明岛低碳发展中长期目标的可能性和重点发展领域。  相似文献   
2.
Questions around how to conserve nature are increasingly leading to dissonance in conservation planning and action. While science can assist in unraveling the nature of conservation challenges, conservation responses rely heavily on normative positions and constructs to order actions, aid interpretations, and provide motivation. However, problems can arise when norms are mistaken for science or when they stymy scientific rigor. To highlight these potential pitfalls, we used the ethics-based tool of argument analysis to assess a controversial conservation intervention, the Pelorus Island Goat Control Program. The program proponents' argument for restorative justice was unsound because it relied on weak logical construction overly entrenched in normative assumptions. Overreliance on normative constructs, particularly the invocation of tragedy, creates a sense of urgency that can subvert scientific and ethical integrity, obscure values and assumptions, and increase the propensity for flawed logic. This example demonstrates how the same constructs that drive biodiversity conservation can also drive poor decision making, spur public backlash, and justify poor animal welfare outcomes. To provide clarity, a decision-making flowchart we devised demonstrates how values, norms, and ethics influence one another. We recommend practitioners follow 3 key points to improve decision making: be aware of values, as well as normative constructs and ethical theories that those values inform; be mindful of overreliance on either normative constructs or ethics when deciding action is justified; and be logically sound and transparent when building justifications. We also recommend 5 key attributes that practitioners should be attentive to when making conservation decisions: clarity, transparency, scientific integrity, adaptiveness, and compassion. Greater attention to the role of norms in decision making will improve conservation outcomes and garner greater public support for actions.  相似文献   
3.
Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically Ne/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.  相似文献   
4.
土地利用/土地覆被变化改变土壤呼吸条件,进而对土壤有机碳储量变化产生影响,而土壤有机碳储量则是影响农业可持续发展和全球碳平衡领域的重要因素。以上海市崇明岛为例,运用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics Model)预测2020、2030年土地利用需求变化,结合CLUE-S模型(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent Model)得出各种用地类型的空间分布,并引用碳密度法估算三种发展幕景下土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量的影响。结果表明:2030年三种发展幕景土壤有机碳储量分别为:低速发展幕景为3 093.03×106kg,惯性发展幕景为3 079.47×106kg,高速发展幕景为3 059.81×106kg;研究期内土壤有机碳储量呈现缓慢下降趋势,但人类活动对其扰动较小;SD和CLUE-S耦合模型可以从时间和空间两方面对土壤有机碳储量进行模拟,具有可行性;建议通过加强城镇用地集约利用、农田保护、林地建设来减少人为活动对土壤有机碳储量的影响。  相似文献   
5.
湛江特呈岛红树林植物群落的结构和动态特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
对特呈岛红树林植被进行多次和全面的调查,通过采用格子样的方法,选取面积为100~800 m^2的样地,每片样地再分成若干10 m×10 m的样方,对红树林样地内的植物进行每木测量,记录各植物的种名、胸径、高度、冠幅等,并进行重要性以及多样性等常规的群落分析,判定该地区植被的生长特征以及研究其演替动态变化。结果表明:①面积较大的群落主要有3个类型,即白骨壤群落(Avicennia marina)、白骨壤+红海榄群落(Avicennia marina+Rhizophora stylosa)、白骨壤-桐花树群落(Avicennia marina-Aegiceras corniculatum);其它面积较小的群落有:白骨壤+红海榄-木榄+桐花树群落(vicennia marina+Rhizophora stylosa-Bruguiera gymnorrhiza+Aegiceras corniculatum)、红海榄+木榄群落(Rhizophora stylosa+Bru-guiera gymnorrhiza);②在3个主要群落中,优势种的苗木和小树相对较少,优势种群的年龄结构均为衰退型;③各群落的Simpson指数关系为:白骨壤+红海榄群落﹥红海榄+木榄群落﹥白骨壤+红海榄—木榄+桐花树群落﹥白骨壤—桐花树群落﹥白骨壤群落;白骨壤群落的重要值为300,为典型的单优群落;④特呈岛的白骨壤群落是中国该类群落中面积最大的,目前长势良好,无病虫害,并且红树林外缘的白骨壤枝干在波浪冲刷或人为原因下,受到较严重的侵蚀,其幼树在林外缘基本无法存活,需要加强保护,对其生理生态学特征也值得进一步深入研究。  相似文献   
6.
Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.  相似文献   
7.
The results of the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) analysis of pure tooth enamel and the data on the radionuclide content in bones were used for estimating the radiation load on reindeer that lived on Wrangel Island in the 1970s and early 1980s. Based on the measurements of the lower jaws, some biological parameters of the Wrangel reindeer population were estimated and compared with those in the Novaya Zemlya and Taimyr populations. Changes in only two of these parameters—the degree of root cementum resorption and animal life span–might be attributed to the effect of the radiation load.  相似文献   
8.
地形因子对海南岛台风降水分布影响的估算   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
台风登陆过程中,地形对台风降水有明显的作用,及时了解台风过程中降水的空间分布信息对灾害预测预警有着重要的意义。基于最小二乘的多元线性回归方法,利用1953-2005年间登陆海南岛的台风(不包括其他热带气旋)的降水资料,建立了台风过程中年平均降水量与地形因子(地形高程、坡度、坡向)的关系模型,估算了海南岛台风过程中降水量的分布,分析了地形对其的影响,为后期台风灾害过程中降水的地形影响分析提供参考。  相似文献   
9.
The overall effect of the number of boats on the copper (Cu) levels in the water column and sediment, along with their spatial variability within Shelter Island Yacht Basin (SIYB), San Diego Bay, California was examined. We identified a horizontal gradient of increasing dissolved Cu and Cu in sediment from outside to the head of SIYB which was coincident with the increasing number of boats. Spatial models of Cu distribution in water and sediment indicated the presence of ‘hotspots’ of Cu concentration. From outside to the head of SIYB, dissolved Cu ranged from 1.3 μ g L?1 to 14.6 μ g L?1 in surface water, and 2.0 μ g L?1 to 10.2 μ g L?1 in bottom water. Cu in sediment exceeded the Effect Range Low of 34 mg kg?1 (i.e. where adverse effects to fauna may occur), with a peak concentration of 442 mg kg?1 at the head of the basin. Free Cu++ in surface water was several orders of magnitude higher than in sediment porewater. High-resolution data of Cu species together with probability maps presented in this paper will allow managers to easily visualise and localise areas of impaired quality and to prioritise which areas should be targeted to improve Cu-related conditions.  相似文献   
10.
Island biogeography theory and nestedness are two relevant and important concepts in biogeography and conservation. However, their integration and application has not been examined for maintaining or maximizing species diversity, especially in arid regions. The aim of this study is to investigate the ecological mechanisms related to the observed pattern of floristic diversity and nestedness in the Lake Bardawil islets on the Mediterranean coast of Sinai Peninsula before the execution of the North Sinai Agricultural Development Project (NSADP) that will threaten the ecosystem of the lake. Plant species on 15 islets were identified and categorized into ecological groups related to their life-form, salt tolerance and succulence. Richness of total plant species and their ecological groups were positively correlated with islet area, number of habitats and elevation, and negatively with disturbance index. The temperature calculator detected highly significant nestedness for the entire flora and all ecological groups. Distance from the mainland had no effect on either species richness or nested pattern of total plant species and their ecological groups. Both the analyses of species richness and nested distribution yielded evidence for a positive species-area relationship. Although nestedness was detected for the entire plant species and their ecological groups, many species and islets exhibited idiosyncratic distribution. Idiosyncrasies could be mainly attributed to demographic stochasticity which is an important character for species interaction and diversity maintenance in arid regions. Therefore, in developing conservation strategies for the Lake Bardawil islets, it is important to incorporate spatial and temporal stability of populations.  相似文献   
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