Reducing post-disaster conflict: a cross-cultural test of four hypotheses using archaeological data

Four hypotheses concerning the relationship between climate-related disasters and conflict are tested using archaeological data in a controlled cross-cultural comparison. The four hypotheses are (1) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because local economic conditions deprive polities of tax revenue so that they can no longer suppress conflict; (2) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because existing social inequalities lead to conflicts over differential access to resources; (3) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because migration forces population into condensed settlements ripe for conflict; and (4) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters in polities where leaders tightly control access to political authority because leaders may use violence to maintain control over the resources they use to secure support from other elites. Only the fourth hypothesis is supported. It is argued that understanding pre-disaster political strategies is key to understanding post-disaster conflict.     

Toward a green economy: The nexus between economic and environmental factors in MENA countries,ARDL bounds approach

With the transition of the global economy toward a green economy, it is important to analyze the elements that can either support or impede this transformation. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to evaluate the potential of the green economy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by analyzing the correlation between economic and environmental factors. The objective of this study is to explore the potential of the green economy in MENA countries by analyzing key factors such as access to clean fuel, GDP, and CO₂ emissions. The study aims to distinguish between long- and short-term effects, assess the presence of a long-run relationship or co-integration between the parameter estimates, and evaluate the progress of MENA countries toward a green economy based on the impact of economic, and environmental factors. Using quarterly and seasonally adjusted data from 2000 to 2018, the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique was employed to examine the co-integration of the factors in the long and short terms. Multiple cointegration techniques were also used to determine the feasibility of a green economy by analyzing the relationship between access to clean fuel for technology and cooking, GDP, and CO₂ emissions. The study's findings indicate a clear long- and short-term relationship between the analyzed factors, as confirmed by the error correction model (ECM) which suggests that the variables are cointegrated and potentially relevant. Additionally, the result of the autoregressive distributed lag bound test shows that the green economy variables, GDP, CO₂ emissions, and access to clean fuel, are cointegrated in the long-term.     

生态经济学视角下的循环农业：理论、实践与发展方向

农业经历了生态农业、化学农业到生态农业的变迁,生态农业是起点也是终点。发达国家饱尝了发展化学农业的苦果,随后转轨到生态农业的道路上,最后认识到只有发展循环农业才能够做到农业可持续发展。发达国家的循环农业特别强调生态内涵和变废为宝理念,政府的财政投入和科研投入力度很大。相比之下,我国虽然已经开始发展循环农业,但目前还并不普遍,化学农业还占有很大比例。学习吸收发达国家的经验,会让我国尽早走上循环农业的发展道路。循环农业是我国农业的发展方向,为了做到这一点,需要强化农业产业化力度、加大财政补贴力度和科研投入力度。     

浅谈循环经济立法及再生资源产业化发展

论述了循环经济法制化发展的重要意义.以再生水为例,指出我国再生资源产业化发展潜力巨大,大力发展再生资源产业,对发展我国循环经济,建设循环型社会具有重要意义.     

循环经济工业园区规划环评研究

概括了循环经济工业园区规划环境影响评价的框架思路。归纳总结了规划环评的主要内容,并以山西省长治市襄垣富阳循环经济工业园区为例,对规划环评指标体系的构建进行探讨。     

京津冀及周边地区低碳经济发展水平评价

随着应对全球气候变化进程的不断推进,“低碳经济”已逐渐成为世界各国实现经济社会可持续发展的必由之路.京津冀及周边地区社会经济发展较不平衡,整体推进低碳经济发展存在较大的困难,为有效促进低碳经济发展的策略选择,本文通过构建低碳经济发展水平评价指标体系,对京津冀及周边地区的低碳经济发展状况进行评价.结果显示,京津冀及周边地区低碳经济发展水平差异较大：北京低碳经济水平相对较高,其他地区距离低碳经济发展水平尚有较大差距.由此,京津冀及周边地区应根据地区经济发展特点及其低碳经济发展状况,采取不同的低碳发展策略选择,以有效推进低碳经济发展模式的顺利转型.     

基于低碳经济理论视角的现代循环农业发展战略与对策

随着资源的紧张和环境的恶化,发展现代循环农业对提高资源利用率和环境保护具有至关重要的意义。因此本文从低碳经济理论的内涵与发展、现代循环农业与主要技术对策、绿色农业视野三个层面的资源循环利用来综合分析如何发展现代农业。     

基于物质流分析的中国减物质化趋势及循环经济成效评价

物质流分析通过测量经济活动物质投入的数量、强度及其变化即物质化或减物质化趋势,能够反映可耗竭自然资源损耗和环境退化的总体情况,也是评价循环经济发展成效尤其是资源综合利用对物质消耗影响的一个有效工具。论文运用统计学和计量经济学方法,分析了中国2000—2013年直接物质投入及其与特定经济特征的关系,确定了资源利用强度变化趋势,评价了中国循环经济实践尤其是资源综合利用的成效。发现2000—2013年中国直接物质投入总量持续增加、单位GDP直接物质投入先上升后下降,说明中国已进入了相对的减物质化阶段;第二产业比重先增加后下降的变化趋势是直接物质投入强度变化的格兰杰原因;中国的资源综合利用总量增加但综合利用率仍很低,未对直接物质投入强度产生统计学意义上的显著影响;未来中国直接物质投入总量和人均值在很长时间内还将继续增加。     

土地利用变化中农户脆弱性研究——一个理论分析框架及基于中国中部五省的调研实证

农村土地流转是发生在我国农村的重要社会经济现象,既关系到土地供给的总体结构与变化,也关系到城市化和工业化的进程,更关系到农户的生存状况。论文在分析当前农户脆弱性研究进展的基础上提出了一种土地利用变化中农户脆弱性理论分析框架,该分析框架包括暴露性指数EI、敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI。根据量化后的SI和AI,可以计算出农户的脆弱性指数VI。论文以中国中部经济区5个省份:河南、湖北、湖南、江西和安徽作为案例研究区域,在大规模农户调研的基础上,选取了定量测度敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI的指标体系,运用几何平均数算法对其进行量化,并由此分别计算出各省份农地转入户和转出户的脆弱性指数VI。最后,论文将农户脆弱性指数VI与暴露性指数(流转面积强度EIA和流转时间强度EIT)的关系进行了分析。     

经济新常态下的“十三五”环境压力预测

我国经济已经从高速增长转向中高速增长的新常态阶段,经济发展方式从规模速度型粗放增长转向质量效率型集约增长,产业结构从劳动密集型向资金密集型和知识密集型转换,经济发展动力从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动。经济新常态下,环境保护将迎来难得的历史机遇,同时也面临严峻的挑战。为了深入理解和准确把握经济新常态下我国"环境态"的发展特征,本文基于中长期环境经济预测模型定量测算了2020年我国社会经济、能源和水资源以及主要污染物排放趋势和特征。结果表明,"十三五"期间,我国能源和水资源消耗总量增长将趋缓,新增消耗量进入涨幅收窄期;产业转型升级加速将从源头上减轻新增污染减排的压力,主要大气和水污染物排放将进入高位平台期,排放强度将呈现高位回落。