Overestimation of self-reported driving exposure: Results from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

Objectives: The accuracy of self-reported driving exposure has questioned the validity of using self-reported mileage to inform research questions. Studies examining the accuracy of self-reported driving exposure compared to objective measures find low validity, with drivers overestimating and underestimating driving distance. The aims of the current study were to (1) examine the discrepancy between self-reported annual mileage and driving exposure the following year and (2) investigate whether these differences depended on age and annual mileage.

Methods: Two estimates of drivers’ self-reported annual mileage collected during vehicle installation (obtained via prestudy questionnaires) and approximated annual mileage driven (based upon Global Positioning System data) were acquired from 3,323 participants who participated in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study.

Results: A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a significant difference between self-reported and annual driving exposure during participation in SHRP 2, with the majority of self-reported responses overestimating annual mileage the following year, irrespective of whether an ordinal or ratio variable was examined. Over 15% of participants provided self-reported responses with over 100% deviation, which were exclusive to participants underestimating annual mileage. Further, deviations in reporting differed between participants who had low, medium, and high exposure, as well as between participants in different age groups.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that although self-reported annual mileage is heavily relied on for research, such estimates of driving distance may be an overestimate of current or future mileage and can influence the validity of prior research that has utilized estimates of driving exposure.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

我国消防标准体系分析

为明确我国消防标准体系发展的方向和重点,分别从消防标准的数量、标龄、类型、属性和采标情况等5个方面对我国消防标准体系进行分析,并与国际标准化组织、欧盟标准化委员会和美国的消防标准体系进行了比较。研究结果表明:我国消防标准体系整体适用性在不断增强;需制定周期性标准复审计划;消防基础试验类和管理类标准应成为下一步消防标准制修订的重点;消防强制性标准所占比例有待进一步下调;需建立国际标准动态跟踪机制,同时应注重将我国先进的消防标准转化为国际标准。     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

长江三峡区间数字流域水系的构建

基于全球陆地一公里基础高程GLOBE数据 ,采用Martz和Garbrecht研制的数字高程流域水系模型自动提取长江三峡万县～宜昌区间的河网水系、各子流域分水线、河网与子流域编码及河网结构拓扑关系 ,从而构成该区域的数字流域和数字水系。结果表明该模型生成的水系是可以接受的 ,与 1:10万地形图上长江三峡万县～宜昌区间的水系一致 ,这为空间分布式模型的建立提供了必备的空间信息数据。最后 ,探讨了数字流域水系在流域生态学中的应用前景 ,构建的数字水系可为中尺度以上流域水体和水生生物的资源保护与合理利用提供决策平台 ,服务于社会经济的可持续发展。     

基于LOADEST和数字滤波的水源地基流氮素输出定量方法应用实例

地表直接径流和基流均是流域非点源氮/磷养分输出的重要水文途径.科学认识和定量模拟基流氮/磷养分输出对于准确解析水源地水体非点源污染来源至关重要.基于Load Estimator模型和数字滤波算法,建立了定量水源地基流氮素输出的方法体系.以浙江省珊溪水源地的玉泉溪流域为例,利用玉泉溪2010-01—2013-12期间逐月总氮(TN)水质监测数据和逐日流量数据,展示了该方法的计算过程.结果表明,本文建立的水源地基流氮素输出定量方法结果合理,模拟精度高,决定系数和纳什系数分别为0.83和0.80;玉泉溪流域2010—2013年TN负荷量为141.21～274.68 t·a~(-1),平均208.63 t·a~(-1),年基流TN负荷量为84.39～168.68 t·a~(-1),平均127.69 t·a~(-1);基流对玉泉溪年均TN负荷量贡献率高达60%以上,流域基流养分输出对地表水体的污染应引起足够重视.     

大连市居民头发典型重金属富集特征研究

测定了大连市居民102份头发样品中Pb、Cd、Hg、As等重金属含量,评估了其暴露风险,并对头发中重金属的含量与年龄、性别的关系进行了分析.结果表明,大连市居民头发中Pb、Cd、Hg、As含量均低于中国居民头发中重金属的建议正常值上限,4种重金属暴露风险较低.男性头发中Cd、Pb和As的平均含量明显高于女性(p0.05),其中As平均含量差异达到极显著水平(p0.01).PCA分析显示样本分布集中在第一排序轴和第二排序轴中间,表明性别并不是影响头发中重金属含量的主要因素.19～35岁年龄组居民头发中Cd和Pb含量最高,且均与56～75岁年龄组呈现显著差异(p0.05);As和Hg在56～75岁年龄组居民头发中含量最高,与其它组比较均达到了显著水平(p0.05).PCA和Pearson分析表明4种重金属间相关性较好,大连市居民对4种重金属暴露途径基本相同.     

三维虚拟地理环境构建与应用

可量测三维虚拟地理环境是数字地球应用的基础平台。本文研究了三维虚拟地理环境构建空间几何建模与纹理建模关键技术。提出了一种适用于大规模生产建库的可量测三维虚拟地理环境构建的生产工艺模型和三维虚拟模型数据获取的方法。介绍了三维虚拟地理环境在城市规划、房产经营管理等方面的应用。     

铜陵石炭纪威宁期沉积相及与黄铁矿矿床的关系

铜陵地区石炭纪威宁期存在潮坪相,泻湖相和浅海陆棚相。白云岩有两种,准同生白云岩分布于潮坪,成岩白云岩分布于泻湖内,本区以成岩白云岩为主。白云岩中赋存了层位稳定的黄铁矿矿床,黄铁矿在泻湖相最易富集,成岩作用是黄铁矿矿床形成的一个重要因素。