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排序方式: 共有19条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网(FPN)为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明:正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。  相似文献   
2.
Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.  相似文献   
3.
Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.  相似文献   
4.
张浩  朱佩枫 《中国环境管理》2019,11(2):106-112,93
本文通过两个现场实验分别考察了解释水平、效能信念两类因素是如何在诱导承诺中发挥作用的。实验一考察了时间、社会、空间这三个解释水平维度如何影响诱导承诺的,实验二考察了个体效能、集体效能这两个效能信念是如何影响承诺行为实施的。最终,我们得出这样的结论:①不管高解释水平还是低解释水平,在呈现明显空间距离、社会距离的操控材料时,被试是否做出亲环境行为承诺存在显著差异。②无论时间距离、空间距离还是社会距离,高水平解释倾向都更容易提高亲环境行为承诺。除此之外,我们还验证了公开承诺比私下承诺更适合中国文化背景下的亲环境行为激励。  相似文献   
5.
PROBLEM: The bicycle helmet use rate is still low among teenagers despite the cumulating evidence that bicycle helmets can prevent cyclists from serious injuries and death. The objective of this study was to investigate the usefulness of the Health Belief Model (HBM; Health Education Monographs, 2 (1974) (1), Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, I. (1988). Attitudes, personality and behavior. Open University Press, Milton Keynes) and Locus of Control model (LC; Psychological Monographs, (1966) (80) in understanding the intention to use bicycle helmet use among bicycle helmet owners. METHOD: Data were collected at two schools in Helsinki, Finland. Students (N=965) completed a questionnaire including three social psychological models applied to helmet use. Models were compared by structural equation modeling techniques. SUMMARY: Results showed that the TPB and LC model fitted the data well, whereas fit of the HBM model was lower than the fit of TPB and LC models. All components of TPB and external LC orientation were significantly related to the intention to use a helmet. TPB together with LC model provide a promising theoretical framework for helmet use promotion campaigns. Practical suggestions for future bicycle helmet campaigns were provided.  相似文献   
6.
7.
Graphical models (alternatively, Bayesian belief networks, path analysis models) are increasingly used for modeling complex ecological systems (e.g., Lee, In: Ferson S, Burgman M(eds) Quantative methods for conservation biology. Springer, Berlin Heilin Heideslperk New York, pp.127–147, 2000; Borsuk et al., J Water Res Plann Manage 129:271–282, 2003). Their implementation in this context leverages their utility in modeling interrelationships in multivariate systems, and in a Bayesian implementation, their intuitive appeal of yielding easily interpretable posterior probability estimates. However, methods for incorporating correlational structure to account for observations collected through time and/or space—features of most ecological data—have not been widely studied; Haas et al. (AI Appl 8:15–27, 1994) is one exception. In this paper, an “isomorphic” chain graph (ICG) model is introduced to account for correlation between samples by linking site-specific Bayes network models. Several results show that the ICG preserves many of the Markov properties (conditional and marginal dependencies) of the site-specific models. The ICG model is compared with a model that does not account for spatial correlation. Data from several stream networks in the Willamette River valley, Oregon (USA) are used. Significant correlation between sites within the same stream network is shown with an ICG model.  相似文献   
8.
A social cognition model of health behavior, the health belief model, was applied to the pro‐environmental behavior of private well water testing. Conceptualizing environmental behaviors as health behaviors may provide new insight into pro‐environmental behavior change. A groundwater education program was provided to K‐12 children throughout New England. Both child participants and their parents completed surveys pertaining to private well water behavior. Results indicate that perceived barriers and socioeconomic status significantly influenced past well water testing of parent participants. Perceived barriers included: participants' concern related to the cost of treating their water, and how a well water problem would influence their property value. Parent participants also indicated that they would perform future well water testing if they received a reminder cue to action that might include: getting a discount or reminder in the mail, if a well testing program was available, and state or local requirement. Our findings reinforce the need for continued private well water research and parallels to additional environmental behaviors.  相似文献   
9.
A substantial amount of oil & gas products are transported and distributed via pipelines, which can stretch for thousands of kilometers. In British Columbia (BC), Canada, alone there are over 40,000 km of pipelines currently being operated. Because of the adverse environmental impact, public outrage and significant financial losses, the integrity of the pipelines is essential. More than 37 pipe failures per year occur in BC causing liquid spills and gas releases, damaging both property and environment. BC oil & gas commission (BCOGS) has indicated metal loss due to internal corrosion as one of the primary causes of these failures. Therefore, it is of a paramount importance to timely identify pipelines subjected to severe internal corrosion in order to improve corrosion mitigation and pipeline maintenance strategies, thus minimizing the likelihood of failure. To accomplish this task, this paper presents a Bayesian belief network (BBN)-based probabilistic internal corrosion hazard assessment approach for oil & gas pipelines. A cause-effect BBN model has been developed by considering various information, such as analytical corrosion models, expert knowledge and published literature. Multiple corrosion models and failure pressure models have been incorporated into a single flexible network to estimate corrosion defects and associated probability of failure (PoF). This paper also explores the influence of fluid composition and operating conditions on the corrosion rate and PoF. To demonstrate the application of the BBN model, a case study of the Northeastern BC oil & gas pipeline infrastructure is presented. Based on the pipeline's mechanical characteristics and operating conditions, spatial and probabilistic distributions of corrosion defect and PoF have been obtained and visualized with the aid of the Geographic Information System (GIS). The developed BBN model can identify vulnerable pipeline sections and rank them accordingly to enhance the informed decision-making process.  相似文献   
10.
针对当前管网系统数据量大不利于传统模型方法诊断故障的问题,设计了1种基于深度置信网络的管网故障诊断算法。首先,对管网数据结构以及管网系统运行状态进行分析,选取管网主要数据作为故障诊断网络的输入,确定相应运行状态作为诊断网络输出;其次,设计了基于多个受限制玻尔兹曼机与Softmax分类器级联的深度置信网络,并且利用对比散度算法和BP算法对模型进行预训练与调优,使模型参数达到全局最优;最后,通过实验测试确定所设计的深度置信网络的训练迭代次数与网络层数,使算法诊断准确率达到最优。研究结果表明:提出的基于深度置信网络的管网故障诊断算法对管网故障诊断可以达到良好的诊断结果,泄漏预测准确率在验证集样本上可达96.87%,在管网泄漏检测方面,相较于传统基于模型的方法优势明显。  相似文献   
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