环境风险评价简介

本文介绍了环境风险评价的内容，方法，现状及发展趋势，并着重介绍了该类评价中污染物对人体健康危害的评价方法。  

环境风险评价构架的探讨

本文归纳并概括了国际上和我国环境风险评价的一般构架，从环境风险评价、安全评价、健康评价、生态评价、最大可信灾害事故及最大可接受水平等几个方面对我国环境风险评价一般构架进行了探讨，分析了我国环境风险评价构架中存在的问题，提出了进一步完善我国环境风险评价一般构架的方法，并辅以了案例分析。  

An Assessment of Ecosystem Risks in the St. Croix National Scenic Riverway

The information needed for conducting the risk assessment was provided by the participants in a 2-day workshop. The invited participants, who possessed knowledge of the St. Croix ecosystem, identified through a group-consensus process a list of stressors and a list of ecosystem values. They then assigned numerical values to each stressor-ecosystem value pair that reflected the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given ecosystem value. Based on this information, the analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) when examined from several different perspectives: immediate impact, time-duration, and management activities. Regardless of the perspective taken, riverway development emerged as the most significant stressor.  

A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

The Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency has recommended that risk reduction strategies become the centerpiece of environmental protection. The goal in developing such strategies is to identify opportunities for greatest reduction of ecological risks. This is a perspective that is significantly more comprehensive than the traditional focus on human health risks arising from environmental degradation. The identification of ecological risks upon which environmental protection efforts should be focused requires an ecological risk assessment methodology that is based on anthropogenic stressors affecting an ecosystem and a set of impaired use criteria. A methodology based on this concept is developed and discussed in this article. The methodology requires that risk values be assigned to each ecosystem stressor-impaired use pair that reflect the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given impaired use criterion. Once these data are available, mathematical analyses based on concepts from fuzzy set theory are performed to obtain a ranking of ecosystem stressors. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a case study involving Green Bay of Lake Michigan. A workshop was held in which 11 persons with extensive knowledge of the Green Bay ecosystem determined risk values through a group-consensus process. The analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) from several perspectives, including prevention management and remediation management. The overall conclusion of the workshop participants was that the fuzzy set decision model is a useful and effective methodology for differentiating environmental risk.  

环境风险预测数学模型

本文基于环境风险预测分析的基本思想,应用模糊图、灰色系统、非线性回归、随机过程和可靠性系统工程理论和方法,探讨了环境风险预测的数学模型。给出了环境风险预测的双向模糊图模型、灰色马尔夫预测模型及非线性回归模型,这些模型的应用为环境风险评价和环境风险管理提供了科学依据。  

长江(江苏段)沿江开发水质监控预警系统建设

长江（江苏段）水质监控预警体系是以信息技术为基础，综合运用地理信息系统（GIS）、遥感（NS）、网络、多媒体等现代高新科技手段，在沿江开发现状分析和评价的基础上，建立长江（江苏段）水质基础信息平台、不同功能的水质模型及其相应的管理系统，为区域的环境风险管理提供数据支持。  

Balancing environmental and industry sustainability: A case study of the US gold mining industry

Mandatory insurance requirements and/or mitigation fees (royalties) for mining companies may help reduce environmental risk exposure for the federal government. Mining is examined since the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Toxic Release Inventory reveals that this sector produces more hazardous waste than any other industrial sector. Although uncommon, environmental expense can exceed hundreds of millions of dollars per development. Of particular concern is the potential for mines to become unfunded Superfund sites. Monte Carlo simulation of risk exposure is used to establish a plausible range of unfunded federal liabilities associated with cyanide-leach gold mining. A model is developed to assess these costs and their impact on both the federal budget and corporate profitability (i.e., industry sustainability), particularly if such costs are borne by offending firms.  

The study of a method of regional environmental risk assessment

Regional environmental risk assessment can be defined as risk assessment which deals with a spatial scale that contains multiple habitats with multiple sources of many stressors affecting multiple endpoints. The characteristics of the landscape also affect the estimated risk. In this paper, an information diffusion method based on a grid system is proposed to assess regional environmental risk. The risk information on a single environmental risk source can be diffused effectively by using fuzzy set theory. Regional environmental risk values obtained from information diffusion can be clustered on classification criteria and different environmental risk levels can be depicted in a spatial partition map. Huangge Town and Nansha Town located in the Nansha Area of Guangzhou City in China were selected as model cases. The results derived from this information diffusion method will help the local government to optimize the distribution of industrial areas and establish risk prevention measurements and emergency management procedures.  

对替代方案编写中应考虑环境风险因素的几点建议

提出替代方案对于环境影响评价工作是非常重要的工作内容,但目前环评中的替代方案往往未考虑环境风险因素,对此本文论述了在替代方案编写过程中应考虑环境风险因素的必要性,并对如何将环境风险因素纳入替代方案的编写过程提出了相关建议.  

Understanding Managers’ Views of Global Environmental Risk

This research investigated managers’ views of two global environmental risks: climate change and loss of biodiversity. The intent was to understand why different managers place varying levels of attention and priority on these issues. The data came from in-depth interviews with 28 senior corporate managers across Canada and a range of sectors, although most were employed in the energy sector. Approximately half had direct environmental responsibilities and half had other management duties. Grounded theory was used to collect and analyze the data. From the results, a theoretical framework was constructed to explain important factors that can influence managers’ mental models of environmental risk. Four factors relevant to managers’ appraisal of the threat of environmental risk include: (1) salience, (2) intrinsic value of nature, (3) knowledge, and (4) perceived resilience of nature. In addition, four factors relevant to managers’ view of the appeal of a particular response strategy were: (1) avoidability, (2) perceived costs and benefits, (3) fairness and equity, and (4) effectiveness. The time horizon for decision making was seen as being important in both portions of the mental model.