Quantifying public health benefits of environmental strategy of PM2.5 air quality management in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, China

In 2013,China issued "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan(Action Plan)" to improve air quality.To assess the benefits of this program in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,where the density of population and emissions vary greatly,we simulated the air quality benefit based on Ben MAP to satisfy the Action Plan.In this study,we estimate PM_(2.5) concentration using Voronoi spatial interpolation method on a grid with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km~2.Combined with the exposure-response function between PM_(2.5) concentration and health endpoints,health effects of PM_(2.5) exposure are analyzed.The economic loss is assessed by using the willingness to pay(WTP) method and human capital(HC) method.When the PM_(2.5) concentration falls by 25% in BTH and reached 60 μg/m~3 in Beijing,the avoiding deaths will be in the range of 3175 to 14051 based on different functions each year.Of the estimated mortality attributable to all causes,3117 annual deaths were due to lung cancer,1924 – 6318 annual deaths were due to cardiovascular,and343 – 1697 annual deaths were due to respiratory.Based on WTP,the estimated monetary values for the avoided cases of all cause mortality,cardiovascular mortality,respiratory mortality and lung cancer ranged from 1110 to 29632,673 to 13325,120 to 3579,1091 to 6574 million yuan,respectively.Based on HC,the corresponding values for the avoided cases of these four mortalities were 267 to 1178,161 to 529,29 to 143 and 261 million yuan,respectively.     

《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的环境健康效果评估

为了定量评估《大气十条》实施带来的环境健康效益,本文首先依据PM_(2.5)浓度和人口数据,分析2013～2017年全国人口加权浓度的变化,其次利用Ben MAP模型对全国338个地级及以上城市2013年PM_(2.5)基准情景和2017年PM_(2.5)控制情景进行分析,定量分析全国31个省(市)及338个地级及以上城市减少过早死亡人数.结果表明,由于PM_(2.5)浓度大幅下降,2013～2017年全国PM_(2.5)人口加权浓度呈逐年下降趋势;北京、天津、河北等京津冀及周边地区减少过早死亡人数最多. 2017年全国280个城市避免过早死亡人数有所增加,58个城市避免过早死亡人数有所下降.以WHO过渡期第1阶段目标值(PM_(2.5)年均浓度为35μg·m-3)作为控制情景,估算2013年全国过早死亡人数约为101 293人,2017年约为41 080人,《大气十条》的实施大约避免60 213人过早死亡.依据支付意愿法调查结果,估算增加的健康效益约为549. 7亿元.     

基于BenMAP的珠三角PM10污染健康经济影响评估

以珠三角地区广州麓湖公园等13个典型监测站的监测资料为基础,结合地图资料、人口资料、疾病发病率、健康影响函数、价值衡量函数等,运用BenMAP模型评估了《珠江三角洲地区空气质量管理计划（2002-2010年）》实施后PM1o污染的变化对公众健康的改善情况（选取2006年和2010年为基准年进行对比研究）.结果表明,该地区2006年到2010年通过减少PM10改善空气质量可以挽救346条生命,使1 092人免患慢性支气管炎;其经济影响占GDP的比重由2006年的0.66％降低到2010年的0.45％,说明了该地区减排措施的健康有益性.