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1.
In the United States, thermal power plant electrical generators (EGs) are large water diverters and consumptive users who need water for cooling. Retrofitting existing cooling systems to dry cooling and building new facilities with dry cooling can save water and reduce EG's vulnerability to drought. However, this can be an expensive source of water. We estimate that the cost of water saved by retrofitting cooling in existing EGs ranges from $0.04/m3 to $18/m3 depending on facility characteristics. Also water savings from building new EGs with dry cooling ranges in cost per unit water from $1.29/m3 to $2.24/m3. We compare costs with that for water development projects identified in the Texas State Water Plan. We find the water cost from converting to dry cooling is lower than many of the water development possibilities. We then estimate the impact of climate change on the cost of water saved, finding climate change can increase EG water use by up to 9.3% and lower the costs of water saved. Generally, it appears that water planners might consider cooling alterations as a cost competitive water development alternative whose cost would be further decreased by climate change.  相似文献   
2.
This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.  相似文献   
3.
The field of disaster risk reduction (DRR) has risen to prominence since the declaration of the International Decade of Disaster Risk Reduction between 1990 and 2000. This decade provided the impetus for a change from the predominant paradigm of disaster response to that of disaster risk reduction as a means of addressing the underlying drivers that lead to disasters. In an effort to promote risk reduction, the UNISDR (the principal agency for disaster risk reduction within the UN structure) formulated policies and strategies to provide both conceptual and practical guidance as to how risk should be reduced. However noble the efforts, this paper contends that the current approach to and understanding of risk within the international community might not be cognisant of complex adaptive systems (CAS) concepts such as the edge of chaos. Specifically, this concept argues that risk (or chaos) within a system is actually a fundamental requirement to the functioning of all resilient socio-ecological systems. Therefore, the reduction of risk without an understanding of the role of that risk within the larger socio-ecological system might actually end up reducing the system’s overall level of disaster resilience. This paper aims to explore the concept of edge of chaos through a literature review of key theoretical works on the topic, followed by a discussion on its implications for the predominant paradigm of risk reduction within disaster risk management policy and practice.  相似文献   
4.
The vulnerability of major-hazard industrial plants to natural hazards has been recognized as an emergent issue whose importance is underlined by the Sendai Framework, established immediately after the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, in Japan. Hence, seismic risk analysis is of paramount importance as testified by the intense research activity that characterized the last years. In this respect, structural health monitoring can represent a valuable tool able to strongly help the decision-making phase. Along this main vein, optical fibers (OFs) represent a class of sensors able to both monitor critical conditions, as leakage of hazardous material, and activate safety barriers, if any. More precisely, optical fibers represent an economic solution, whose characteristics appear particularly suitable for dangerous environments like major-hazard plants. However, investigations relevant to their use for seismic monitoring of chemical/petrochemical plants are rather limited, especially when subject to strong dynamic excitations. As a result, this paper deals with the analysis of optical fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) applied to bolted flange joints (BFJ) under cyclic loadings. More precisely, two experimental programs, i.e., a cyclic test on a single BFJ and a series of shaking table tests on BFJs of a multicomponent system, demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed monitoring systems in detecting hazardous conditions and, thus, their potential use in conjunction with safety barriers.  相似文献   
5.
A nutrient loss reduction strategy is necessary to guide the efforts of improving water quality downstream of an agricultural watershed. In this study, the effectiveness of two winter cover crops, namely cereal rye and annual ryegrass, is explored as a loss reduction strategy in a watershed that ultimately drains into a water supply reservoir. Using a coupled optimization-watershed model, optimal placements of the cover crops were identified that would result in the tradeoffs between nitrate-N losses reduction and adoption levels. Analysis of the 10%, 25%, 50%, and 75% adoption levels extracted from the optimal tradeoffs showed that the cover crop placements would provide annual nitrate-N loss reductions of 3.0%–3.7%, 7.8%–8.8%, 15%–17.5%, and 20.9%–24.3%, respectively. In addition, for the same adoption levels (i.e., 10%–75%), sediment (1.8%–17.7%), and total phosphorus losses (0.8%–8.6%) could be achieved. Results also indicate that implementing each cover crop on all croplands of the watershed could cause annual water yield reduction of at least 4.8%, with greater than 28% in the months of October and November. This could potentially be detrimental to the storage volume of the downstream reservoir, especially in drought years, if cover crops are adopted in most of the reservoir's drainage area. Evaluating water yield impacts, particularly in periods of low flows, is thus critical if cover crops are to be considered as best management practices in water supply watersheds.  相似文献   
6.
Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.  相似文献   
7.
Monitoring communities of fish is important for the management and sustainability of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVs) are among the most effective nondestructive techniques for sampling bony fishes and elasmobranchs (sharks, rays, and skates). However, BRUVs sample visually conspicuous biota; hence, some taxa are undersampled or not recorded at all. We compared the diversity of fishes characterized using BRUVs with diversity detected via environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding. We sampled seawater and captured BRUVs imagery at 48 locales that included reef and seagrass beds inside and outside a marine reserve (Jurien Bay in Western Australia). Eighty-two fish genera from 13 orders were detected, and the community of fishes described using eDNA and BRUVs combined yielded >30% more generic richness than when either method was used alone. Rather than detecting a homogenous genetic signature, the eDNA assemblages mirrored the BRUVs’ spatial explicitness; differentiation of taxa between seagrass and reef was clear despite the relatively small geographical scale of the study site (∼35 km2). Taxa that were not sampled by one approach, due to limitations and biases intrinsic to the method, were often detected with the other. Therefore, using BRUVs and eDNA in concert provides a more holistic view of vertebrate marine communities across habitats. Both methods are noninvasive, which enhances their potential for widespread implementation in the surveillance of marine ecosystems.  相似文献   
8.
Attempts to better understand the social context in which conservation and environmental decisions are made has led to increased interest in human social networks. To improve the use of social-network analysis in conservation, we reviewed recent studies in the literature in which such methods were applied. In our review, we looked for problems in research design and analysis that limit the utility of network analysis. Nineteen of 55 articles published from January 2016 to June 2019 exhibited at least 1 of the following problems: application of analytical methods inadequate or sensitive to incomplete network data; application of statistical approaches that ignore dependency in the network; or lack of connection between the theoretical base, research question, and choice of analytical techniques. By drawing attention to these specific areas of concern and highlighting research frontiers and challenges, including causality, network dynamics, and new approaches, we responded to calls for increasing the rigorous application of social science in conservation.  相似文献   
9.
The main achievements of the debates on deliberative democracy and democratised science are investigated in order to analyse the reasons, meanings and prospects for a democratisation of global environmental policy. A deliberative systems approach, which emphasises the need to explore how processes in societal spheres interact to shape the deliberative qualities of the system as a whole, is adopted. Although science plays a key role in this, its potential to enhance deliberative capacity has hardly been addressed in deliberative theories. The democratisation of science has potential to contribute to the democratisation of global environmental policy, in that it also shapes the potential of deliberative arrangements in the policy sphere. Deliberative arrangements within the policy sphere may stimulate the democratisation of science to different degrees.  相似文献   
10.
根据矿井风流调节的具体要求,合理选择矿用空气幕的型号是应用矿用空气幕技术的关键。在分析矿用空气幕选型依据及原理的基础上,应用矿井通风三维仿真系统软件模拟矿用空气幕运行的效果,来研究确定矿用空气幕的选型参数及影响因素。结果表明,应用矿井通风三维仿真系统软件所选择的矿用空气幕与理论推导的计算结果一致,此方法能够最大限度地反映矿山实际情况,具有直观、高效等特点。  相似文献   
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