Traditional agriculture in transition: examining the impacts of agricultural modernization on smallholder farming in Ghana under the new Green Revolution

Following the renewed effort at achieving a new green revolution for Africa, emphasis has been placed on modernizing smallholder agriculture through the deployment of improved inputs especially mechanized technologies. In Ghana, the government has in the last decade emphasized the provision of subsidized mechanized ploughing services to farmers alongside a rapidly growing private sector tractor service market. While mechanized technology adoption rates have increased rapidly, the deployment of these technologies has been without critical analysis of the impacts on production patterns and local agrarian systems. This paper examines the distributional impacts of agriculture mechanization on cropping patterns and farm sizes of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, and semi-structured interviews with smallholder farmers (n=60). Specifically, comparative analysis of the field sizes and cropping patterns of participant farmers prior to and after the adoption of mechanized technologies was conducted. In-depth interviews were used to contextualize the experiences of smallholder farmers toward understanding how mechanization may be impacting traditional agriculture. Our findings reveal a mechanization paradox in which farm sizes are expanding, while cropping patterns are shifting away from traditional staple crops (pearl millet and sorghum bicolor) to market-oriented crops (maize, rice and groundnuts). This transition we argue, has adverse implications on the cultural dimension of food security, the organization of social life, and climate change adaptation. We recommend a retooling of the current agricultural policy focus to ensure context sensitivity for a more robust battle against food insecurity.     

基于生态系统服务供需的雄安新区生态安全格局构建

生态安全格局构建是保障区域生态安全的关键。沿用“源地识别—阻力面构建—廊道提取”的生态安全格局构建模式，选取粮食供给、产水量、土壤保持、固碳释氧和生境维持5项生态系统服务供给指标，以及人口密度、地均GDP和土地利用程度3项生态系统服务需求指标，综合生态系统服务供需2方面识别重要生态源地，利用夜间灯光强度进行基本阻力面修正，采用最小累积阻力模型进行生态廊道提取，构建出雄安新区生态安全格局。研究表明:新区生态源地总面积约48433 km2，占新区土地总面积的313%，主要分布于新区西北部旱地和东南部水域；新区生态阻力系数空间分布较为破碎，大部分区域阻力值较低，间或分布高阻力值；新区生态廊道总长度18586 km，呈“Y”字型沿建设用地和水系分布，所处地类主要为旱地。基于生态系统服务供需的生态安全格局构建可为新区规划建设提供参考和借鉴。     

Urban wild meat consumption and trade in central Amazonia

The switch from hunting wild meat for home consumption to supplying more lucrative city markets in Amazonia can adversely affect some game species. Despite this, information on the amounts of wild meat eaten in Amazonian cities is still limited. We estimated wild meat consumption rates in 5 cities in the State of Amazonas in Brazil through 1046 door-to-door household interviews conducted from 2004 to 2012. With these data, we modeled the relationship between wild meat use and a selection of socioeconomic indices. We then scaled up our model to determine the amounts of wild meat likely to be consumed annually in the 62 urban centers in central Amazonia. A total of 80.3% of all interviewees reported consuming wild meat during an average of 29.3 (CI 11.6) days per year. Most wild meat was reported as bought in local markets (80.1%) or hunted by a family member (14.9%). Twenty-one taxa were cited as consumed, mostly mammals (71.6%), followed by reptiles (23.2%) and then birds (5.2%). The declared frequency of wild meat consumption was positively correlated with the proportion of rural population as well as with the per capita gross domestic product of the municipality (administrative divisions) where the cities were seated. We estimated that as much as 10,691 t of wild meat might be consumed annually in the 62 urban centers within central Amazonia, the equivalent of 6.49 kg per person per year. In monetary terms, this amounts to US$21.72 per person per year or US$35.1 million overall, the latter figure is comparable to fish and timber production in the region. Given this magnitude of wild meat trade in central Amazonia, it is fundamental to integrate this activity into the formal economy and actively develop policies that allow the trade of more resilient taxa and restrict trade in species sensitive to hunting.     

基于GIS的东辽河流域生态安全空间差异评价研究

生态安全建设是协调经济开发与生态保护的重要战略.区域生态安全评价与预警研究具有空间特性、非线性、随机性,研究过程中必须处理大量的空间信息,而空间分析和空间数据管理正是GIS的优势,它使各环境要素的分布态势及彼此间的拓扑关系一目了然,并且图文并茂地展示全流域的生态安全格局.在充分研究辽河流域生态环境状况基础上,选取东辽河流域11个县市区,借助GIS格网赋值技术,讨论了基于GIS的东辽河生态安全空间差异的评价方法.首先,拟定"压力-状态-响应"(P-S-R)指标体系,实地调查并收集资料;然后,数字化流域,运用模糊AHP法赋权并量化计算;最后,建立东辽河流域生态安全指数GRID数据库,进行GIS的空间Interpolate运算和Assembly分析.结果表明,公主岭市是生态安全区,约占全流域面积的10.78%;西丰市和东辽县是生态不安全区,约占流域面积的13.07%;其余8个地区为生态安全中等区,约占全流域面积的76.15%.评价结果与各地区现状生态环境评价基本-致.提出了相应的生态保护建议.     

基于网络层次分析法的石油化工设施安全风险评估

为评估石油化工设施的安全风险,提出了一种基于网络层次分析法的安全风险评估模型。在构建石油化工设施安全风险网络层次分析模型的基础上,采用Saaty标度法对安全风险参数进行量化,利用SD软件对安全风险参数进行排序。仿真结果表明,网络层次分析法考虑了安全风险参数之间的相互作用和相互影响,能改进基于线性组合关系的递阶层次分析模型的不足,评估结果可为石油化工企业制定安全风险管理措施提供决策依据。     

环境安全与可持续发展

本文已经提出了如果将环境安全作为人类安全被实现。那就需要较好的环境治理。环境安全可以被理解为一系列的价值观、原则、政策、技术、体制和程序,由此,社区与社会管理环境和自然资源以透明、负责任的参与和公平的方式克服可持续发展的障碍。可持续发展与环境安全是否相互依存、相互促进还需要进一步论证。环境安全和可持续发展之间的关系也常常解释为实际的产出。社会性学习对于应对有关的不安全环境,并导致不可持续发展的挑战至关重要。社会必须利用信息共享、传播和共同的理解改进决策而发展适应改变的能力。这只有通过发展学习型社会才能成为可能。环境安全和可持续发展是社会性学习的产出,而且所有相关方利用创新方法的环境友好政策,是基于环境安全和环境治理的原则为基础的,大大地推动了生态系统的管理、性别公平、尊重人权、解决冲突、建立社区信任为应对未来的意外或潜在风险和新的挑战需要适应性管理,建立社会和生态系统恢复。应集中努力改进人们的生活质量,不要使用超过环境所能承受的自然资源能力。     

战场环境下装备保障信息系统安全风险与防护

目的研究战场环境下装备保障信息系统的安全问题。方法从装备保障及装备保障信息系统的概念、分类和复杂战场环境下装备保障信息系统所面临的安全威胁入手,依照五分法把装备保障信息系统安全风险划分为5个等级,推导出风险评估模型,提出实施装备保障信息系统安全防护的技战术策略。结果战场环境下,为确保整个作战进程中装备保障活动安全、有效、稳定地进行,装备保障信息系统防护必须遵循统一协调、综合利用的积极防护原则,采用有效的风险控制措施加以应对。结论通过积极探索和发展装备保障信息安全与防护理论,找准战场环境信息防护中存在的薄弱环节,制定了装备保障信息安全防护策略,加强装备保障信息系统的安全管理工作,最终提高我军装备保障信息系统的防护能力。     

中心城区的生态安全格局构建研究

本文利用景观生态学的理论,采用最小累计阻力模型,评价深圳市福田区的景观生态安全格局.结果表明,福田区当前存在景观格局破碎、生态安全网络不完善、生态廊道孤立和生态流连接性差等问题.对此,本文提出优化生态节点、生态廊道和生态网络等措施,提出"一心、一轴、一环、三带、六区"的福田区生态安全格局规划,以满足城市发展的需要及保护城市生态系统的生态过程和基本服务功能.     

水环境中不同形态氮对甲芬那酸光降解影响机制的研究

研究了紫外光照射下水环境中不同形态的无机氮(NO-3、NO-2和NH+4)对甲芬那酸(MEF)光解的影响.NO-3与NO-2均促进MEF的光解,NH+4对MEF的光解基本无影响;在NO-3、NO-2存在下添加适量异丙醇,显著抑制MEF的降解,实验表明NO-3、NO-2在光照下产生了·OH并参与对MEF的氧化降解.同时模拟研究了水体处于不同p E值下,水中存在的不同形态的无机氮对MEF光解的复合影响,其对MEF光解促进作用不是简单的叠加关系,增大p E值,MEF的光解速率先增大后减小.当NO-2和NH+4共存时,对MEF的光解主要表现为NO-2的影响;当NO-2和NO-3共存时,两者对MEF的光解存在拮抗作用.     

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests

Objective: Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot–ankle–leg complex.

Methods: Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot–ankle–leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies.

Results: Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels.

Conclusions: These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.