Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Boosting large-scale river connectivity restoration by planning for the presence of unrecorded barriers

Conservation decisions are invariably made with incomplete data on species’ distributions, habitats, and threats, but frameworks for allocating conservation investments rarely account for missing data. We examined how explicit consideration of missing data can boost return on investment in ecosystem restoration, focusing on the challenge of restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity by removing dams and road crossings from rivers. A novel way of integrating the presence of unmapped barriers into a barrier optimization model was developed and applied to the U.S. state of Maine to maximize expected habitat gain for migratory fish. Failing to account for unmapped barriers during prioritization led to nearly 50% lower habitat gain than was anticipated using a conventional barrier optimization approach. Explicitly acknowledging that data are incomplete during project selection, however, boosted expected habitat gains by 20–273% on average, depending on the true number of unmapped barriers. Importantly, these gains occurred without additional data. Simply acknowledging that some barriers were unmapped, regardless of their precise number and location, improved conservation outcomes. Given incomplete data on ecosystems worldwide, our results demonstrate the value of accounting for data shortcomings during project selection.     

手机定位人口数据在应急救援中的应用

随着智能手机的普及,基于手机定位的人口数据在突发性灾害应急救援领域发挥着日益重要的作用。以近几年地震灾区为主要研究对象,选择灾区中有代表性的旅游景区、县城及乡镇,获取这些区域手机定位的人口数据,同时采用传统方法估算区域内人口数量,并进行差异性对比。研究结果表明:差异性最大的是旅游景区、其次是县城和乡镇;在人口年度变化上,旅游景区的人口在7、8月份达到高峰,乡镇人口高值区出现在2月份,县城人口年度差异无明显规律。     

煤与瓦斯共采在错层位巷道布置中的机理研究及应用构想

为了完善现有煤与瓦斯共采技术，创新煤与瓦斯共采方法，对错层位巷道布置下的煤与瓦斯共采系统展开研究，利用相似模拟试验，分析错层位巷道布置覆岩运动情况，预测其开采围岩裂隙发育和瓦斯运移形式，提出了创新煤与瓦斯共采技术构想。研究结果表明:采空区覆岩三带高度随接续工作面的增加而增大，相邻采空区垮落矸石压实区呈现“O-L-O”形变化，多个相邻采空区覆岩出现大“O”形圈裂隙带；相邻采空区内瓦斯可实现相互运移，大“O”形圈裂隙带内赋存大量瓦斯气体；研究提出了地面钻井抽采瓦斯、走向高位瓦斯抽采巷和外错尾巷穿层钻孔3种煤与瓦斯共采技术，比传统巷道布置情况下的煤与瓦斯共采技术在安全、经济等方面更具优势。     

提高GPS定位精度的群调度滤波算法*

为解决现行安全生产科技领域中全球定位系统（GPS）/惯性导航系统（INS）融合系统容易产生较大时变误差的关键问题，满足GPS定位信号的精度和信号数据处理时间的要求，提出1种群调度滤波算法，通过实验仿真，分别与模糊算法、机器学习算法及卡尔曼滤波网络算法进行比较研究。结果表明:群调度滤波算法兼顾了定位精度与数据处理时间，具有较大优势，可在航空安全、船舶安全、应急监测、灾后抢险等安全科技领域广泛应用。     

基于Landsat 8遥感数据的天津市地表温度反演

以Landsat 8遥感数据为数据源,进行天津市地表温度反演研究。首先采用单通道算法反演地表温度,并利用均值标准差法进行温度分级。然后建立不同温度等级面积比例的估算模型。再通过随机样点,从不同温度等级和土地覆盖类型2个角度,分别建立并比较不同类样点的地表温度与各指数的拟合模型。结果表明:次高温区域面积比例与人口密度、人均GDP都具有较高的决定系数;地表温度与NDVI、BAEM的二元线性回归决定系数高于地表温度与单一指数的决定系数;将样点分类后,低温点与MNDBI的决定系数高于其他温度等级样点,水域和植被样点与各种指数的决定系数高于其他地物类型样点。     

Considering climate change and regional differences: An efficiency assessment of coal mine use and land restoration

China is the country with the largest coal mining production and consumption in the world, but due to a large amount of coal burning, air pollution and climate change are exasperating related problems. The previous literature mainly has discussed coal mine production and environmental pollution, but failed to take into account external factors such as climate change and seldom discussed the relationship between coal mine land use and land restoration. Therefore, this study uses the meta-Epsilon-Based Measure two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis under the exogenous model and incorporates coal mine land use and land restoration use into the model to explore the relationship between the two under climate change. The research results are as follows. (1) If the external climate factors are not considered, then the phenomenon of overestimation or underestimation of the technology gap arises. (2) The efficiency value of the coal mining stage in most provinces is generally higher than the land restoration efficiency value.     

How does eliminating mercury from artisanal and small-scale gold mining lead to achieving sustainable development goals?

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is the principal anthropogenic activity that globally contributes to overloading our environment with mercury. Although the Minamata Convention, led by the United Nations, is a crucial instrument to eliminate its use progressively, novel approaches to accelerate this difficult transition are welcome. This article proposes a framework for policy-making or improvement, fostering the enforcement of mercury elimination through the lens of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), focusing on the excluded artisanal and small-scale gold miners and their dependents. We move forward with a literature review of the Artisanal and Small Mining topic, taking each SDG as a unit of analysis. Understanding the problem as a puzzle of four sets of pieces, namely: (1) social, (2) environmental, (3) economic, and (4) institutional, the paper offers potential opportunities for the decision-makers and practitioners to accelerate the substitution of this heavy metal and develop sustainable futures for the ASGM communities. We conclude by proposing a pragmatic framework that synthesizes the means, actions, and ends to accelerate a sustainable transition.     

Experimental and theoretical investigation of dry-water containing phosphoric acid for new fire suppressant

To overcome the shortcomings of phosphorus-containing compounds (PCCs, not widely used) in fire suppression, the dry water powder containing phosphoric acid was analyzed for a new fire suppressant (SiO₂-P). First, the fine conditions (solid-to-liquid ratio, stirring time and stirring speed) were determined to prepare the new powder. The particle size distributions and XPS of SiO₂-P powder were analyzed. The TG tests were conducted to study the decomposition of powder, and there was a major decomposition peak. Second, the extinguishing time of SiO₂-P powder was tested, which showed that the SiO₂-P powder containing phosphorus species could significantly improve the fire suppression ability. In addition, the kinetic parameters of powder decomposition reaction were determined by genetic algorithm based on TG results. Last, based on the decomposition products and kinetic parameters, the burning velocity and mass fraction of free radicals of CH₄/air flame with SiO₂-P powder addition were studied theoretically. The results indicated that SiO₂-P powder had great ability of reducing the burning velocity and scavenging free radicals. Furthermore, the suppression effects were analyzed, which indicated that the cooperation of H₂O and P suppression effect dominated the suppression mechanism and resulted in the good suppression efficiency.     

具有变频器的矿井低压漏电保护研究

为了解决移动变电站低压侧为变频器供电时漏电保护装置误动的问题，提出了基于傅式算法的附加直流原理漏电保护新方法。通过理论分析和MATLAB/Simulink仿真，研究了具有变频器的矿井低压供电系统附加直流原理漏电保护，提出由傅式算法分解出采样电压直流分量以反映电缆绝缘水平的保护方法；同时分析了其他因素对直流分量的影响。研究结果表明:变频器对传统附加直流保护整定值有较大影响，易造成漏电保护装置误动且无法实现电缆的在线绝缘监测；所提出的直流分量法能准确测量电缆对地绝缘电阻，且可消除电缆分布电容、变频器载波频率、变频器输出频率等其他因素的干扰；采用该漏电保护方法，可承受变频器投入时对采样电压造成的较大冲击，不必在启动期间解除漏电保护装置，能够消除在此期间存在的人身触电安全隐患。