基于裂区设计的大气能见度拟合及预测模型

通过收集分析广州能见度及影响因子数据的特征,使用R-project统计软件作为建模工具,采用多层裂区实验构建模型基本框架,选择影响显著的因子进行变量变形处理,对年、月、日、小时的数据特征进行层层分割设计,并在对应层次引入代表时间含义的虚拟变量以提高模型的表征水平,加入二次项、交叉项等提高模型的精度,得到拟合度高、适用性强的能见度拟合及预测模型。     

喀斯特坡地地表径流系数监测初报

通过对喀斯特坡地6种不同土地利用条件下径流小区的地表径流和植被穿透雨量以及地下水出口水位变化进行野外定点连续观测研究,结果表明,6个径流小区地表径流系数均非常小,介于0.01%~12.81%。显然,喀斯特坡地的地表径流易于入渗转化为地下径流。受人为活动影响较大的径流小区,地表径流系数随降雨量的变化呈指数函数型变化特征,容易产生地表径流系数的突变式增长。     

农地流转背景下地块规模对农户种粮投入影响分析

近年来粮食安全受到国家和社会的广泛关注,农地投入作为粮食生产的重要要素,是保障粮食稳定产出的前提。学者就农地规模对农户种粮投入的影响已进行了较多研究,但受农地流转的影响,土地要素更具多样化,土地规模与农户种粮投入的关系发生变化。随着农地流转在我国的快速发展,探析农地流转影响下土地规模对农户种粮投入影响的变化成为一个亟待研究的问题,对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。考虑到地块的异质性,本文基于山东、河南、安徽三个粮食主产省622户农户1 284个地块的粮食生产数据从村庄和农户两个层次控制了生产要素市场价格、地块要素等非主观因素,进行多层模型回归分析。结果表明,农地流转特征及地块特征对农户粮食生产单位面积投入有显著影响。地块规模和转入地占比对农地投入影响为负,转入地占比越大,地权稳定性越低,农户投入积极性受到挫伤越明显,在转入地上的投入减少。随着转入土地面积的增加,农户从事粮食生产的机会成本增大,使其有更强的动力增加种粮投入,地块规模的负向影响程度降低。基于分析结果,本文得出以下3点结论:(1)规模化经营有利于降低单位面积种粮成本;(2)农地流转发生时,地块规模对种粮投入的影响发生改变,成片规模化经营将成为我国粮食生产的必然趋势;(3)提高土地综合条件可以降低投入成本,并提高农户投入积极性。要保障国家粮食安全,需从降低种粮成本、提高农户收益着手,建议鼓励农村土地流转,推动粮食规模化生产,同时也要注重增加财政拨款,建设高标准粮田,强化高标准粮田的农业基础设施建设,完善田间配套工程。     

广州番禺区不同地类的非点源污染排放特征

在广州番禺区建设代表城市、农田、村镇、园地4类典型集水区的径流试验小区,对每个径流小区采集3场有效降雨径流以研究不同土地利用类型的非点源污染负荷输出特征。结果表明,不同土地利用类型的污染物输出浓度差别较大,TSS和COD输出浓度(EMC值)的大小排列顺序为园地>农田>村镇>城市;NH3--N为农田>城市>园地>村镇;NO3--N为城市>农田>村镇>园地;TN为农田>城市>园地>村镇;TP为农田>园地>城市>村镇。对于农田集水区,TSS和COD的输出明显受降雨的影响,而N、P污染物的输出受施肥的影响更为显著;对于城市集水区,晴天累积污染物的数量和降雨情况是决定初期径流中污染负荷的主要因素。污染负荷与径流量之间相关性显著,且颗粒物是携带污染物的重要载体。各径流小区的初始冲刷效应分析结果显示,不透水地面更易发生降雨初期冲刷;降雨强度是影响降雨径流初始冲刷的关键因素。     

Recovery of seven kinds of cfc and cfc replacements on high‐surface area activated carbon

The adsorption isotherms, the constants of the Dubinin—Radushkevich plots, and the constants of the Langmuir plots of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and CFC replacements on high‐surface area activated carbon were investigated to estimate the recovery efficiency of CFC and CFC replacements. The adsorption and desorption of HFC134a on a high‐surface area activated carbon was much easier than that of CFC 113 and the CFC replacements. The recovery efficiency of CFC replacements depends on the hydrogen atoms in molecule. It is possible that the saturated amount adsorbed in the pores or on the surface of the activated carbon could be evaluated by the W_s constant of the the Langmuir equation and the W_o constant of the Dubinin‐Radushkevich equation. The a constant of the Langmuir equation and the BE_o constant of the Dubinin‐Radushkevich equation depend on the molecular composition.     

鼎湖山20公顷森林样地单个物种对群落的构建

大型固定监测森林样地已成为研究森林群落组织机制的一个重要平台。群落里个体之间的相互作用对群落的构建有相当重要的作用。以往的研究主要针对于物种之间的相互作用,而用群落里单个物种与其它所有个体之间相互关系来解释群落构建的研究还很少。采用单个物种-面积关系（ISAR）这一指标对鼎湖山20 hm2样地和BCI 50 hm2样地数据分析,来研究不同样地单个物种是如何对森林群落进行构建的。结果显示,与BCI样地和Sinharaja样地不同,鼎湖山样地大树对周围其它个体的作用几乎是中性的;而对于小树（胸径小于10 cm）来说,鼎湖山样地和BCI样地一样,随着尺度的增加＂吸引型＂物种减少,而＂中性＂物种增加。说明了不同的群落在不同的发育阶段,单个物种对群落结构的构建有重要的作用不同,将来的研究应该结合群落其它方面的因素来分析群落内个体之间相互作用,例如从时间尺度的谱系和空间因素去分析。     

四川省蔬菜基地的气候优势及其开发利用

利用四川省10年气候资料与蔬菜生产资料，经过多年的实地考察研究及统计分析，找出四川省蔬菜基地群分布随海拔高度变化的规律、产供销特点，并提出了发展四川省蔬菜产业的对策。     

南海ODP1144孔微玻璃陨石物理化学性质及母源物质的复杂性

ODP 184航次 114 4孔位于南海北部陆缘 (2 0°3.18′N ,117°2 5 .14′E ,水深 2 0 37m) ,在岩心样品中发现的微玻璃陨石主要赋存于 386 .17～ 386 .2 7mcd处 ,这些玻璃陨石主要以球形和椭球形为主 ,可见泪滴状、马鞍形、扁豆形、圆盘形、哑铃形、翼形、异形等形态和不规则状碎片。通过微玻璃陨石主量元素电子探针分析 ,并用Harker图解讨论了主量元素氧化物之间的相关性 ,同时结合Niggli参数进一步深入探讨微玻璃陨石的母源物质特征。研究结果表明 ,ODP114 4孔微玻璃陨石属于澳亚散落区内的普通型微玻璃陨石 ,其母源物质成分复杂 ,可能有两种或两种以上的物质组成 ,一种可能是化学成分没有太大变化的碎屑沉积岩 ,另一种可能是粘土及杂砂岩等。     

ROLE OF EROSION PROCESSES IN TRANSFER OF RADIONUCLIDES: RESULTS OF FIELD EXPERIMENTS1

ABSTRACT: An experimental one-year fieldwork has been conducted in the vicinity of the Chernobyl NPP, within an agricultural watershed, to study the transfer of radionuclides brought into the environment by the disaster of 1986. Presented are results of observation of the washout of ¹³⁷Cs from the runoff plot both in natural conditions and under artificial rainfalls. Beside traditional hydro-logical methods, new techniques were used allowing to consider microtopographical peculiarities of the runoff plot and their role in the redistribution of radionuclides. The estimate of the annual mass balance for the soil and the radionuclides within the runoff plot has shown that, regardless of significant areal variation of their concentration, the ¹³⁷Cs washout with the solid runoff resulted from artificial rainfalls amounts to some 1 percent of its reserves in the uppermost 5 cm of the topsoil. The same parameter for the natural runoff is lower by an order of magnitude. Both these factors of self-purification are about two times less than natural radioactive decay of ¹³⁷Cs.     

Comparison of distribution function estimators for forestry applications following variable probability sampling

Practical considerations often motivate employing variable probability sampling designs when estimating characteristics of forest populations. Three distribution function estimators, the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, a difference estimator, and a ratio estimator, are compared following variable probability sampling in which the inclusion probabilities are proportional to an auxiliary variable, X. Relative performance of the estimators is affected by several factors, including the distribution of the inclusion probabilities, the correlation () between X and the response Y, and the position along the distribution function being estimated. Both the ratio and difference estimators are superior to the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. The difference estimator gains better precision than the ratio estimator toward the upper portion of the distribution function, but the ratio estimator is superior toward the lower end of the distribution function. The point along the distribution function at which the difference estimator becomes more precise than the ratio estimator depends on the sampling design, as well as the coefficient of variation of X and . A simple confidence interval procedure provides close to nominal coverage for intervals constructed from both the difference and ratio estimators, with the exception that coverage may be poor for the lower tail of the distribution function when using the ratio estimator.