基于GLUE法的多指标水质模型参数率定方法

目前对水质模型进行参数率定通常利用计算机算法来实现,但由于水质模型日趋复杂的非线性结构往往会导致"异参同效"现象,无法通过单个似然度判断参数的取值是否能够取得真值.为避免这一情况,本文提出了一套基于GLUE法的多目标模型参数率定方法,并以WASP水质模型的应用为例,通过Sobol方法确定模型的敏感参数,并利用DO、CBOD、氨氮、硝态氮4项指标的似然函数对参数同时进行率定.结果表明,该方法既可以有效地避免因追求"过拟合"而造成模型参数取值不当,也可以减小模型参数的不确定性,为具有"异参同效"现象的复杂模型的参数率定工作提供了一个更为可靠的方法.     

基于EFDC和WASP模型的突发水污染事故影响的预测预警

近年来，我国突发水污染事故频发。长江作为我国最重要的水源地，其水质安全受到沿江众多化工企业可能突发污染事故的威胁。因此，开展南京化工园突发水污染事故影响的预测预警研究意义重大。基于EFDC和WASP模型，建立了南京化工园突发水污染事故影响的预测模型，并以龙翔甲苯罐区泄漏为例进行了事故情景模拟。研究表明：所建的预测模型能够对南京化工园突发水污染事故后污染物的水环境行为进行快速的模拟和预测，并且能够在地理信息系统的图层上以动画的形式实时展示事故影响的范围和程度，可以为南京化工园突发水污染事故的预警应急提供决策依据；基于EFDC构建的二维水动力模型能够较为准确地反映研究区的水动力情况；事故情景中排放的甲苯在研究江段能够较快地稀释扩散，挥发作用对甲苯的衰减过程影响显著，平水期比枯水期更有利于水体中甲苯的衰减     

基于WASP的湖州市环太湖河网区水质管理模式

为保障清水入湖,以我国富营养化最为严重的淡水湖泊之一——太湖为例,建立了基于水体纳污能力的流域水环境管理模式.同时,针对河网地区水流往复性特点,以水质分析模拟程序(WASP7.3)模型为基础估算了湖州市环太湖河道COD和氨氮的水环境容量,并建立了综合点源和非点源的COD、氨氮日最大排污量(TMDL)管理模式.结果表明,在90%水文保证率下,研究区域水体环境容量CODCr为30153.4kg·d-1,氨氮为5112.4kg·d-1;按照区域2005年排污状况,未达标河段的COD最高削减率达到70%,氨氮最高削减率达到87.5%,才能满足整个流域水体功能要求.     

WASP水质模型在辽河干流污染减排模拟中的应用

运用WASP模型对辽河流域实施水质改善方案后水质的变化进行模拟,以辽河干流铁岭段水质指标COD为例,结合流域污染削减目标寻求合理的减排任务分配方案。结果袁明：根据不同季节灵活地分配减排任务,辽河干漉铁岭段年削减COD1．74—2．49万吨可使其水质状况得到明显改善,迭到减排耳标。     

WASP4在太浦河水质管理中的应用

运用WASP4模型系统模拟结果表明,太浦河的开通将明显改善黄浦江松浦大桥取水口水质。     

Mass balance modeling to elucidate historical and continuing sources of dioxin into an urban estuary

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (dioxins) are typically found in sediment, water and tissue as in the case of the Houston Ship Channel and Upper Galveston Bay (HSC–UGB) in Texas studied in this research. While hydrodynamic and fate and transport models are important to understand dioxin distribution in the various media, it is difficult to assimilate modeling results into a decision framework without appropriate tools that can aid in the interpretation of the simulated data. This paper presents the development of a mass-balance modeling tool linked to RMA2 and WASP models of the HSC–UGB system for 2002–2005. The mass-balance tool was used to aggregate modeling results spatially and temporally and estimate the relative contribution of sediments to dioxin loading into the Channel in comparison to runoff, deposition, and permitted effluent discharges. The total sediment associated-dioxin load into the system calculated using the mass balance model was 2.34 × 10⁷ ng d⁻¹ (almost 86% of the toxic equivalent load), and the re-deposited load to the sediment from the water column was 1.48 × 10⁷ ng-TEQ d⁻¹, such that 8.6 × 10⁶ ng-TEQ d⁻¹ or approximately 69% of the average daily dioxin flux is transported between model segments as sediment. The external loads to the system contribute approximately 3.83 × 10⁶ ng-TEQ d⁻¹, a value that is an order of magnitude smaller when compared to the contribution from sediment. These findings point to the need for sediment remediation strategies that take into account the spatial locations within the system that serve as sediment sources to dioxin in the water column.     

WASP富营养化水质模型在GIS中的完全集成研究

模型与GIS的结合是水质模拟研究的发展趋势，但完全集成方式面临许多技术难点。通过分析WASP富营养化模型的原理，剖析其程序源代码的核心，并对其核心算法进行重新编程开发。把GIS擅长的工作完全交给GIS、把模型擅长的工作完全交给模型，模型从底层对GIS属性数据库进行直接读写，GIS对模型的起始和中间过程直接控制，实现了WASP富营养化水质模型在GIS中的完全集成。完全集成后，为WASP增加LH OAT全局参数敏感性分析功能。LH OAT全局参数敏感性分析方法集成了LH抽样与随机OAT方法的优点，在随机OAT的基础上融入LH抽样法，保证参数敏感性分析的强壮性及有效性。但LH OAT方法必须依靠复杂的计算机程序来实现，因为没有通用程序而限制了其推广应用。为此我们设计了LH OAT方法的通用程序，提高了水质模拟的性能和应用范围。这为模型与GIS的完全集成研究提供了成功案例和问题解决的新思路     

基于全局敏感性分析方法的WASP模型不确定性分析

为了定量讨论WASP(The water quality analysis simulation program,水质分析模拟程序)模型中各参数对模拟结果的影响及其不确定性,本文在Simulink环境下对模型进行重组,利用Sobol方法,对影响DO、CBOD、NH3-N、NO3--N等4项输出的各参数敏感性进行了研究,重点讨论了输入条件如时空变化对参数敏感性的影响.结果表明:Sobol全局敏感性分析方法能够有效地筛选出WASP模型中对DO、CBOD、NH3-N、NO3-变化模拟较为敏感的参数,在实现模型参数“本土化”中具有较大的应用潜力;对比总敏感性与一阶敏感性指数之间的差异, WASP模型当中的若干参数(如GP1、PNH3、anc等)耦合性较强,不宜使用一次一个变量法对这些变量进行敏感性分析;在参数敏感性变化方面,即使对于同一条河流,WASP的参数敏感性指数会因边界条件的时空变化而发生改变.敏感性受空间变化的影响不大,但受时间(季节)变化的影响显著;输入变量随时间的变化,会引起模型不确定性在各季节上的较大的差异;WASP模型当中存在明显的“异参同效”作用,仅靠传统方法进行全局寻优率定,并不能体现水体各组分之间相互转化的过程,还需要结合实验对关键参数进行率定.     

中水回用对社区景观水体叶绿素a变化的影响

由于中水的营养盐含量较高,以中水为补水水源的社区景观水体存在较大的水华暴发风险.基于中水回用于景观水体的换水控制实验,建立了中水景观水体的富营养化模型,模拟了连续换水时和终止换水后叶绿素a的变化过程,分析了中水水质和换水周期对水体藻类生长的影响.结果表明,提高中水水质可以降低水体的叶绿素a峰值;在连续换水期,随着换水周期的缩短, 水体的叶绿素a峰值降低,并且从开始换水至达到峰值的时间增长;在连续换水期后终止换水,叶绿素a会重新达到峰值,并且原来的换水周期越短,水体的叶绿素a峰值反而越高,达到峰值所需时间越长.模型应用可为中水回用于社区景观水体的水量水质设计与维护提供依据.     

A two-dimensional numerical model for eutrophication in Baiyangdian Lake

Hydrodynamic, physical, and biochemical processes in the Baiyangdian Lake water environment were analyzed comprehensively. An eutrophication ecodynamics model including the effects of reed resistance on flow was coupled with the hydrodynamics governing equations. An improvement on the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP, a modeling system introduced by the US Environmental Protection Agency) is established, which uses the zooplankton kinetic equation. The model simulates water quality constituents associated with eutrophication in the lake, including phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrogen, phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and others. Various kinetic coefficients were calibrated using measured data or information from relevant literature, to study eutrophication in the lake. The values calculated by the calibrated model agree well with field data, including ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and dissolved oxygen. Changes related to nutrition and dissolved oxygen during the processes were simulated. The present model describes the temporal variation of water quality in Baiyangdian Lake with reasonable accuracy. Deviations between model-simulated and observed values are discussed. As an ideal tool for environmental management of the lake, this model can be used to predict its water quality, and be used in research to examine the eutrophication process.