Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

Critical review for the quantification of leachate production: Evaluation example for the “Oum Azza” public landfill in Rabat city,Morocco

The estimation of leachate quantities produced in landfills is necessary to dimension the treatment plants allowing to reduce the polluting load of these effluents and consequently avoid their negative impacts on the environment. Different leachate quantification methods were used in this study to assess the leachate volume produced at the Oum Azza landfill. The water balance method give comparable estimations of leachate production to the Ouled Berjal landfill ratio. The first method showed average values between 487 and 495 m³/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019, and at the same time, the second method gave values between 470 and 477 m³/day for the same years. In contrast, the World Bank ratio showed high values that vary between 2260 and 2295 m³/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019. The on-site data and the statistical analysis showed us that the World Bank ratio is not adapted for the estimation of the leachates produced in Oum Azza landfill, while the water balance and the ratio of Ouled Berjal landfill allowed to give comparable results to reality.     

建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

《环境监测 分析方法标准制修订技术导则》(HJ 168—2010)对土壤环境监测标准制修订适用性探讨

针对土壤环境监测的复杂性和特殊性,从空白试验、检出限、方法验证、质量控制和标准文本等方面,指出了《环境监测分析方法标准制修订技术导则》《HJ 168—2010》对土壤环境监测标准制修订工作的适用性和执行中存在的问题。提出,为保证土壤标准制修订质量和标准执行质量,应研究适宜土壤监测方法标准的质量控制指标体系和评价体系,及时修订《HJ 168—2010》或发布补充要求;对现有土壤监测方法标准进行技术评估,加强对于土壤标准制修订工作的指导和监管。     

走滑断层作用下X80管道设计应变规律和神经网络预测

走滑断层是埋地管道常见的地质灾害威胁，断层作用下管道会发生较大的拉压应变而失效。为得到X80管道的设计应变，基于有限元方法建立了走滑断层作用下管道的应变响应数值计算模型，模型使用壳单元模拟管道，非线性弹簧单元模拟土壤约束，采用西二线实际工程的管道应变影响参数范围，计算了管道的设计应变；为预测管道的设计应变值，基于以上参数化分析得到的4 817组设计应变结果，采用人工神经网络建立了管道设计应变预测模型。结果表明:该神经网络模型预测结果的最大相对误差小于10%，预测准确性良好，且该方法具有较高的计算效率，可以为断层作用下埋地管道的应变设计与评估提供参考。     

Development and validation of LC-MS/MS method for the determination of Ochratoxin A and its metabolite Ochratoxin α in poultry tissues and eggs

The objective of this study was to develop a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method for the determination of Ochratoxin A (OTA) and Ochratoxin α (OTα) in poultry tissues and eggs. The two toxins were extracted by a mixture of acetonitrile/water, purified with a reversed phase C18 solid phase extraction column (SPE) and determined by LC-MS/MS. The LC-MS/MS method performances were evaluated in terms of linearity in solvent and in matrix (ranged from 0.5 to 15.10 µg L^?1 for OTA and from 0.60 to 17.85 µg L^?1 for OTα), limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantitation (LOQ), specificity, accuracy and precision in repeatability conditions. Recovery experiments were performed by spiking poultry liver, kidney, muscle and eggs around 1 µg kg^?1 and 10 µg kg^?1. LODs were 0.27 and 0.26 µg kg^?1 while LOQs were fixed at 1.0 and 1.2 µg kg^?1 for OTA and OTα, respectively. Main recoveries for OTA ranged from 82 to 109% and for OTα ranged from 55 to 89%. The values of within-laboratory relative standard deviation (RSD_r) were equal to or below 20%. Considering the results obtained and that all analytical performance criteria were fulfilled, the new extraction and purification method developed for OTA and OTα determination in animal tissues and eggs was found appropriate for control laboratories and research activities designed to ensure food safety.     

沈阳地区臭氧污染日时空变化特征及天气分型研究

利用2013—2019年沈阳地区11个国控监测站近地层臭氧(O_3)浓度监测数据和地面气象观测资料,分析了沈阳地区O_3污染日的O_3浓度时空分布规律,并对造成O_3污染日的天气系统进行了主观分型。结果表明:自2013年以来,以O_3为首要污染物的天数逐年增加,2017年达到研究期内的最高值,但2018—2019年略有下降。O_3浓度的日变化趋势呈现明显的单峰形,O_3-1 h在10:00—20:00明显高于其他时间段,最大浓度值出现在15:00,而在01:00—07:00则相对较低。从季节变化上看,沈阳地区O_3污染主要发生在6—7月,两个月的O_3污染日之和占全年O_3总污染日的比例高达51%。从O_3浓度空间分布上看,沈阳地区三环外监测站测得的O_3浓度明显高于三环内监测站,高浓度区域主要集中在东部和东北部,城市中心存在明显的低浓度区,南部和北部差别不大,但也明显高于城市中心。造成沈阳地区O_3污染的主要天气类型有4种:暖脊型、均压场型、高空槽型和副热带高压型。其中:暖脊型出现的频次最高,占总样本的49.1%;副热带高压型出现的次数最少,占总样本的7.7%。     

氨气敏电极法和纳氏试剂分光光度法对地表水中氨氮的比对测试

采用不同质量浓度的氨氮标准样品和实际样品,用氨气敏电极法和纳氏试剂分光光度法进行同步测试。结果表明,2种分析方法在水样氨氮质量浓度在0. 159～2. 81 mg/L范围内具有良好的可比性、精密性和准确性。氨气敏电极法的检出限为0. 03 mg/L,平行6次测定样品的相对标准偏差为0. 4%～4. 2%,加标回收率为85. 0%～110%;纳氏试剂分光光度法的检出限为0. 025 mg/L,平行6次测定样品的相对标准偏差为0. 5%～6. 4%,加标回收率为93. 0%～99. 8%。同时氨气敏电极法在样品预处理、试剂配制和分析时间上要优于纳氏试剂分光光度法。氨气敏电极法能够满足地表水自动监测在线比对实际工作的需求,该方法具有良好的适用性。     

半干法脱除球团烟气中的SO2及Hg0

采用钙基吸收剂及复合氧化剂半干法脱除模拟球团烟气中的SO_2及Hg~0,考察了多因素条件对吸收效果的影响。实验结果表明,在以NaClO和NaClO_2为复合氧化剂、 NaClO与NaClO_2体积比1∶0.5、复合氧化剂质量分数3%、反应温度110℃、钙基吸收剂质量3.0 g、模拟烟气进气流量1.2 L/min的条件下,SO_2和Hg~0的脱除率分别为98%和93%,证明钙基吸收剂与复合氧化剂对污染物球团烟气中的SO_2和Hg~0有良好的脱除作用。     

Exposure assessment of operators to pesticides in Kongou,a sub-watershed of Niger River valley

The use of pesticides in horticultural sector in Niger has become an integral part of modern agriculture. Nevertheless, their inappropriate use can generate negative health effects to operators. A study was carried out among Kongou farmers in order to assess their potential dermal exposure (PDE). The UK-POEM model was used to quantify the PDE during mixing/loading and application according to the local practices. In order to determine which parts of the operator body are subject to most contamination during spraying and to validate the theoretical model used, a patch method was used with a tartrazine dye. The deposits of the tartrazine on patches were measured by colorimetry thanks to the absorbance value determined after their extraction in water and a calibration curve. A total of ten spraying trials (five trials with the hand-held sprayer and five others with the backpack sprayer) were performed by different producers at 0.5 and 1 m height for each trial. The survey shows that 92% of the farmers are illiterate and the most common active substances identified are organophosphate or pyrethroids insecticides. Seventy percent of operators do not use any personal protective equipment (PPE) during mixing/loading or spraying. The predictive systemic exposure levels vary from 0.0027?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.7692?mg kg^?1 bw per day for backpack sprayer and from 0.0261?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.9788?mg kg^?1 bw per day for hand-held sprayer, several times higher the Acceptable Operator Exposure Level (AOEL) for some actives substances. Theoretical modeling indicates more exposure of operator by a hand-held sprayer than a backpack sprayer. The patch method results show that the deposits of dye increase when the position of sprayer nozzle increases from 0.5 to 1 m for the two sprayers. All parts of the operator body are contaminated but lower body parts and chest are the most exposed. The patch method results also show that hand spraying contaminates operator more than backpack spraying, confirming the results of the theoretical model.