Learning About the History of Landscape Use for the Future: Consequences for Ecological and Social Systems in Swedish Bergslagen

Barriers and bridges to implement policies about sustainable development and sustainability commonly depend on the past development of social–ecological systems. Production of metals required integration of use of ore, streams for energy, and wood for bioenergy and construction, as well as of multiple societal actors. Focusing on the Swedish Bergslagen region as a case study we (1) describe the phases of natural resource use triggered by metallurgy, (2) the location and spatial extent of 22 definitions of Bergslagen divided into four zones as a proxy of cumulative pressure on landscapes, and (3) analyze the consequences for natural capital and society. We found clear gradients in industrial activity, stream alteration, and amount of natural forest from the core to the periphery of Bergslagen. Additionally, the legacy of top-down governance is linked to today’s poorly diversified business sector and thus municipal vulnerability. Comparing the Bergslagen case study with other similar regions in Russia and Germany, we discuss the usefulness of multiple case studies.     

Food or sex—males and females in a sex role reversed pipefish have different interests

In a sex role reversed pipefish, Syngnathus typhle, we found that basic life history allocations were directly influenced by sexual selection. We investigated time allocation to foraging and mating, respectively, in a choice experiment, giving males and females, of small or large body size, a choice between food and a potential partner. We found that males were more interested in foraging than mating, i.e., were more frequently observed in front of the food than in front of the partner, whereas females were more interested in the potential partner. This reflects sexual selection operating differently on the two sexes, as males and females are relatively similar in other life history traits, such as growth, mortality, age of maturity, dispersal, and parental expenditure. Moreover, large individuals allocated more time to mating activities, small to feeding. Individuals more interested in mating compared to food were subsequently more critical when given a choice between a large (high-quality) and a small (low-quality) partner, whereas individuals more interested in food were not selective. These findings are consistent with our predictions: sex-role reversed males can be relatively sure of achieving one or more matings, and should allocate more time to feeding and, hence, to parental investment, growth and/or future reproduction. Females, on the other hand, have more uncertain mating prospects and should allocate time to imminent reproductive activities, thereby foregoing other life history traits such as growth and future egg production. By this, they also sacrifice future fecundity and attractiveness.     

Holocene fire history from the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area, New South Wales, Australia: the climate, humans and fire nexus

This study presents a reconstruction of the fire activity of the last ~14,200 cal. years BP (before AD 1950) from Gooches Crater Right, located on the Newnes Plateau, approximately 150 km to the west of Sydney (~33°27′S, 150°16′E) within the Blue Mountains National Park. Charcoal analysis and palynology were undertaken with the aim of untangling any inter-relationship between climate, humans and fire. A chronology of the site was provided by radiocarbon dating. The dominant control on fire in this environment during the Holocene appears to be climate. Periods of climate change, identified in previous studies, are associated with higher levels of fire activity. Fire was less ubiquitous between ~9,000 and 6,000 years BP, a period normally described as having a higher effective moisture in south-eastern Australia. The mid-Holocene fluctuations in charcoal may reflect anthropogenic fire, climate forcing or alternatively human responses to any climate change. Coeval changes in palaeoclimatic sequences elsewhere and palynology at the site support a climatic explanation or that Aboriginal people used fire within a climatic framework.     

Queen longevity,queen adoption,and posthumous indirect fitness in the facultatively polygynous ant Myrmica tahoensis

In many polygynous ant species, established colonies adopt new queens secondarily. Conflicts over queen adoption might arise between queens and workers of established colonies and the newly mated females seeking adoption into nests. Colony members are predicted to base adoption decisions on their relatednesses to other participants, on competition between queens for colony resources, and on the effects that adopted queens have on colony survivorship and productivity. To provide a better understanding of queen-adoption dynamics in a facultatively polygynous ant, colonies of Myrmica tahoensis were observed in the field for 4 consecutive years and analyzed genetically using highly polymorphic microsatellite DNA markers. The extreme rarity of newly founded colonies suggests that most newly mated queens that succeed do so by entering established nests. Queens are closely related on average (rˉ = 0.58), although a sizable minority of queen pairs (29%) are not close relatives. An experiment involving transfers of queens among nests showed that queens are often accepted by workers to which they are completely unrelated. Average queen numbers estimated from nest excavations (harmonic mean = 1.4) are broadly similar to effective queen numbers inferred from the genetic relatedness of colony members, suggesting that reproductive skew is low in this species. Queens appear to have reproductive lifespans of only 1 or 2 years. As a result, queens transmit a substantial fraction of their genes posthumously (through the reproduction of related nestmates), in comparison to direct and indirect reproduction while they are alive. Thus queens and other colony members should often accept new queens when doing so will increase colony survivorship, in some cases even when the adopted queens are not close relatives. Received: 20 February 1996/Accepted after revision: 25 May 1996     

清代闽台地区自然灾害及其救治办法研究

清朝,闽台已经成为自然灾害的多发地区,常见的灾害有洪水、干旱、台风、地震与瘟疫等.对福建危害最大的是水灾,对台湾危害最大的则是风灾.两岸人民为抗击自然灾害而共同努力,清地方政府采取多项救灾措施如蠲免、赈粮、捐赀及赋予台湾官员独断财权以应付突发灾情等,并取得了一定成效.     

减灾事业的发展和综合减灾

中国减灾事业的发展史可分3个阶段:第一阶段是新中国成立以前的几千年,减灾活动以赈灾为主,帝王“祭天求恕”,“防灾吏制”,安抚于民。清末民初1800至1949年间计发生巨灾25起,死亡4993万余人,总灾亡则近亿,年均灾亡60万人以上,这段惨痛的灾况记下了十分难得的灾情史,泣血于残野。新中国成立后,在“为人民服务”的思想指导下,为减轻灾害损失,逐步建立了气象、水利、农林、地震、海洋、地质等专业的灾害科技与减灾工程,政府并组织社会兼事抗灾、救灾、应急减灾,国家减灾实力快速增长,已取得突出减灾实效,这个阶段比第一阶段灾亡人数下降了90%以上,但年均灾亡人口仍有1.2万人左右。该阶段的工作特点是以单灾种纵向体系为主,不同灾类的监测、预报水平尚高低不一,这与成灾机理的难易程度和工作条件的强弱有关。21世纪初,随全球增温之势锐升,多类极端灾变遍及各洲,促使许多国家发动全社会人众共同探求“综合减灾”之路;我国政府已迅即开展全社会应急减灾行动,开启了“综合减灾”之先声,这是减灾事业步入第三阶段的先导。综合减灾应该是全社会相关部门和民众的统一行动。目前尚有3个问题需要弄清楚,一是多种自然灾害之间成灾机理相关性的研究,其对象是灾害群与灾害链;二是全社会减灾要素综合运作预案的优选;三是如何核算减灾投入与社会可持续发展之正、负效应关系。     

近场地震作用下框架结构的损伤机理

首先讨论了近场地面运动的特征及各种抗震规范对近场地震的设防，然后采用非线性时程分析方法，对一个10层框架结构在近场地震作用下的响应特性进行了研究。同时对该框架结构进行了Pushover分析，通过与非线性时程分析结果进行对比，说明Pushover分析方法不能正确评估结构在近场地震作用下的抗震性能。     

考虑应变速率影响的混凝土重力坝非线性地震响应分析

通过引入应变速率、损伤变量以及刚度退化指标等参数,建立了应变率相关的混凝土弹塑性损伤模型。运用该模型对某重力坝厂房坝段分别就率相关及率无关两种情况进行了三维非线性地震响应时程分析。深入研究了混凝土应变速率等相关特性对结构动力响应的影响。结果表明,应变速率对混凝土的力学性能有一定的影响,随着应变速率的增加,坝体结构的变形减小,主拉应力有所提高,应变能有所减小以及开裂损伤有一定的降低。所得结论对混凝土重力坝的震害研究有一定的参考价值。     

黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征及其与流域因素和人类活动的关系（Ⅱ）：—人类活动、历史地震及地形因子的影响

以历史上黄河下游的决溢频率为泥沙灾害的代用指标,研究了人类活动,历史地震及地形因子对黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的影响,研究表最,人类活动是影响黄河下游泥沙灾害的重要因素,历史上人口的增加使下游决溢频率增大,人口低谷与决溢频率的低值时段相应,历史上农牧交错带的南移与下游决溢频率的减小相伴发生。北移则导致决溢频率的增大,历史地震对黄河下游历史泥沙灾害有一定的影响,黄河下游历史泥沙灾害表现出明显的空间分异,这种分异与平原地貌条件的沿程变化有密切的关系。     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.